FXUS61 KILN 261045
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
645 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift to the east coast with a warm front 
lifting north through the area tonight. Precipitation chances
will develop this afternoon, and increase tonight as the warm 
front moves through the region. Warm temperatures in store for 
Ohio Valley this weekend with mainly dry weather conditions. The
threat for showers and thunderstorms returns Monday as a cold 
front approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Large area of surface high pressure centered over southeast
Canada to shift off to the east coast today.  

High level clouds spilling over upstream mid/upper level ridge
will be thickest over the southwest this morning. Where mostly
clear skies will be observed over the northeast - temperatures 
will drop to lows in the mid and mid 30s. Frost development will
be possible over the northeast and have continued frost 
advisory thru 9 AM.

Upstream mid level ridge axis to build east across the area
today with southwesterly flow developing on its back side.
Moisture to increase with a band of showers (with possibly some
embedded thunderstorms) moving into the area late in the 
afternoon and into the evening. Have limited pops to chance
category thru the daylight hours. 

Temperatures to warm up today prior to thicker clouds and pcpn
moving in during the late afternoon. Highs to range from the 
upper 60s northwest to the to upper 70s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Band of showers and embedded thunderstorms to pivot northeast
thru the area this evening in a region of favorable low level
theta-e advection. The best coverage of pcpn will occur across
west central Ohio this evening where more favorable forcing will
be located. Behind this initial band of showers, a chance for
rain will continue but coverage will be more limited. Mild lows
generally in the upper 50s. 

In warm sector the favorable forcing shifts to the north with
pcpn chances diminishing by Saturday afternoon. Temperatures
warm around 10 degrees above normal with highs on Saturday in
the upper 70s to around 80. Breezy conditions develop with south
winds gusting up to 35 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
H5 ridge will be fairly expansive across the eastern CONUS to start 
the period. Further ridge amplification/height rises will occur on 
Sunday, promoting warmer daytime highs in the low to mid 80s. Some 
weak instability will be present in this warm/humid air mass, but no 
synoptic forcing will really be present. However, will have to see 
if CAMs try to initialize any pcpn that would be diurnally driven. 

Ridge axis nudges eastward on Monday, with a shortwave trough 
working its way through the Midwest region. Clouds increase from the 
west throughout the day, with PoPs increasing substantially Monday 
night into Tuesday. QPF footprint not overly impressive with this 
system given the progressive nature of the shortwave trough and 
associated surface cold front. Weak cold front swings through early 
on Tuesday, moderating temperatures slightly. Most of the CWA will 
still observe daytime highs in the middle 70s to near 80. 

Weak ridging returns on Wednesday, keeping an unstable air mass in 
place across the region. This will provide at least a chance of PoPs 
across the Ohio Valley. Another shortwave trough will begin carving 
its way through the Upper Plains on Thursday, which will eventually 
work its way into our region. This will increase chances for 
showers/storms in our fa.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High level clouds to continue to spill into the area today 
as a mid level ridge builds across the region. As the ridge 
axis shifts to the east moisture will increase late in the day 
into this evening. 

Clouds will thicken and lower while ceilings remain VFR this
afternoon as the mid level ridge axis shifts east and the flow
backs southwesterly.  

The favorable lift will result in a band of showers and 
embedded thunderstorms that pivots north thru the area late in 
the day into this evening. Have a mention of VCSH for this pcpn 
band with brief MVFR conditions possible in rain showers. A
southwest low level jet of 40-45kt will result in a period of
low level wind shear across the western TAF sites late tonight.

East winds around 10 kts will become southeast at 10 to 15 kts 
this afternoon into this evening with gusts up to 20 to 25 kts 
overnight.


OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ026-034-035-
     043>046-052>056-063>065-073-074.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...AR