FXUS61 KPHI 261825 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 225 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves offshore today. A warm front attached to low pressure over the Great Lakes moves by Saturday. Highs pressure returns for Sunday and into next week. Another low and front arrives for Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure centered over New England this afternoon will shift very slowly eastward through tonight and Saturday. As this occurs, a warm front will approach from the south and west Saturday well ahead of a low pressure system moving through the upper midwestern states. The upshot of all this is that the weather will remain pretty quiet through the near term. It's a little on the cool side this afternoon, especially near the coast, with east to southeast winds off the ocean. These winds will diminish this evening and under the continuing influence of high pressure with mainly clear skies it will be another chilly night, though not as cold as this morning. Generally expect lows ranging from the mid 30s in the colder spots of eastern PA and interior NJ (where a Frost Advisory is in effect) to around 40 or so over the urban corridor of SE PA, Delmarva, and coastal NJ. Saturday will start mainly clear with skies then clouding over through the late morning into the afternoon from west to east as the warm front approaches. There will be some showers associated with this front approaching from the west but I think they should be fizzling out as they reach eastern PA since the low levels will be fairly dry. As a result, we just mention isolated to scattered light showers in the forecast for Saturday afternoon over eastern PA and Delmarva extending into adjacent portions of NJ roughly as far east as around Trenton. The cloud cover will keep temperatures a bit cool with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A transition to early summer readings will occur through the latter part of the weekend. Mild and dry weather will be around for Sunday. Following the warm front, a deep southerly flow will arrive over the area, so increasing warmth and humidity is expected. Highs Sunday will be in the upper 70s/low 80s in most spots, but cooler near the shore and up across the Poconos. A mild night expected as well with lows only reaching the mid 50s to around 60. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Very warm temperatures for late spring will remain in place as the upper ridge starts out across the eastern US to start off the work week. High temperatures will likely be the warmest thus far this season with much of the region reaching the low to mid 80s! Gradually, this ridge weakens and allows more scattered shortwave energy to arrive across the area. For Tuesday and into Wednesday, a cold front will approach the area and then wash out as it moves through. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will certainly be possible, mainly Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, but overall probabilities remain around the 25-45% range. Another system will approach the region Thursday, though there remains quite a bit of model spread in timing and evolution. Sticking close to our consensus blend, leaving a 20-30% chance for showers. Temperatures remain above average in the mid 70s to low 80s through Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas... Through today...VFR. East to southeast winds 5-10 kts. High confidence. Tonight...VFR. East to southeast winds dropping to 5 kts or less. High confidence. Saturday...VFR. Increasing clouds with broken cigs around 5 to 7 thousand feet by late day. Southeast to south winds around 10 knots. High confidence. Outlook... Saturday night through Monday...VFR prevail. A few moments of sub- VFR conditions possible Saturday night as a warm front pushes through with scattered showers. Otherwise, a dry forecast. Tuesday...VFR to start with sub-VFR conditions potentially arriving in the afternoon and evening with the arrival of a weak cold front. && .MARINE... Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through Saturday with east to southeast winds generally around 10 knots and seas 2 to 4 feet. Outlook... Saturday night through Tuesday... Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through the period. Fair weather expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Min RH values will be in the 25-30% range today. However, with winds so low, around 10 MPH or less, the threat for the rapid spread of wildfire remains low. && .CLIMATE... A record low was tied at Trenton this morning. Elsewhere, temperatures remained above the records as of just before 7AM. ABE/Allentown 30 in 2001/1967/1934 ACY/Atlantic City Airport 28 in 1967 55N/Atlantic City Marina 34 in 1883 GED/Georgetown 30 in 1964 MPO/Mount Pocono 18 in 1919 PHL/Philadelphia 35 in 1967/1919 RDG/Reading 27 in 1972 TTN/Trenton 33 in 1919 ILG/Wilmington 32 in 1919 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ060>062- 103-105-106. NJ...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ001- 007>010-012-013-015>022-027. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OHara/RCM NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/RCM SHORT TERM...MJL/OHara LONG TERM...MJL/OHara AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/MJL/RCM MARINE...Fitzsimmons/MJL/RCM FIRE WEATHER... CLIMATE...