FXUS62 KFFC 231226 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 826 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 406 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Key Messages: - Mostly sunny again today with near to slightly below normal highs. - Slight chance of light showers across Central GA on Wednesday afternoon associated with weak front. NW flow aloft is spreading mostly thin cirrus into the N part of GA. Otherwise, clear skies and cool temperatures prevail this morning with 3 AM temperatures ranging from the mid 30s in extreme NE GA to near 50 degrees across the S portion of the County Warning Area. The Frost Advisory for the NE corner of the area appears to be warranted. Mostly sunny skies are forecast for today with high temperatures mostly in the 70s (mid to upper 60s in the NE mountains). Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon may drop below 25 percent across the extreme SE and N portions of the area, but durations again are expected to be less than 4 hours. The day shift will monitor trends for a possible short fused Fire Danger Statement. A weak shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and OH Valley region tonight. At the surface, a very weak cold front will sink S into the area on Wednesday. Isolated light showers may accompany the front as it approaches the area tonight. However, showers will larges dissipate before making it across the N border. There are indications that isolated showers may redevelop during Wednesday afternoon along and just ahead of the front as it continues to sink S across Central GA. Have included very light QPF amounts in that area along with 15% PoPs. Instability and dynamic support look meager, so have only included showers in the forecast. Confidence is low that much in the way of measurable rainfall will be realized. SEC && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 406 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Highlights: -Slight chance for rain on Thursday, otherwise, mostly dry through the rest of the week. -The next opportunity for appreciable rainfall is now slated for late in the weekend into early next week. At the start of the long term period (Wednesday night) a weak frontal boundary will be moving through the forecast area with surface high pressure beginning to build across the Ohio Valley. Thursday through Friday, the boundary will begin to lift back north and while guidance largely keeps the forecast area dry would not be surprised if some light rain occurs across portions of north GA in addition to increased cloud cover. A wedge of high pressure is still slated to develop across the northeast on Friday resulting in cooler conditions beneath it. Going into the weekend, long term guidance depicts two system developing east of the Rockies -- the latter of the two looking to bring more beneficial rainfall to the forecast area. As noted in the previous forecast the past few model runs indicates slower timing of these two systems thus, any notable rainfall looks to hold off until the Sunday/Monday timeframe. Midlevel ridging shifts east covering much of the eastern CONUS Friday into Saturday resulting in the return of southwesterly flow. At the surface, a wedge will become more prominent across the northeast and southerly flow continues to increase at the lowest levels. Gradual moisture return in the way of increasing cloud cover can be expected through the weekend. While PoPs through Sunday remain less than 20%, depending on the track of either system any moisture associated with it could interact with the wedge this weekend potentially resulting in some light rain across the North. A warming trend can be expected through the long term period for area of Central Georgia. Cooler temperatures can be expected for areas under the influence of the 'wedge' (across parts of North GA). 07 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 825 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Mostly VFR conditions will continue other than some patchy IFR (or even LIFR) cigs and vsbys in localized fog near warm lakes. High clouds from the N and NW will be mostly thin. Winds will be light out of the SW to WSW at 5 to 10 kts. Winds transition to northerly overnight then E tomorrow morning. A brief and low chance of light precip is possible tomorrow afternoon, though this remains isolated at best. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Low precip chances tomorrow afternoon. High all other elements. SM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 49 76 52 76 / 0 10 0 10 Atlanta 52 76 55 76 / 0 20 10 20 Blairsville 47 68 45 73 / 0 10 0 10 Cartersville 49 74 49 77 / 0 10 0 20 Columbus 50 80 58 82 / 0 10 0 20 Gainesville 52 73 51 75 / 0 10 0 10 Macon 49 79 57 81 / 0 10 0 20 Rome 49 74 50 77 / 0 10 0 20 Peachtree City 49 77 54 79 / 0 20 10 20 Vidalia 51 81 60 82 / 0 0 0 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for GAZ006-008-009. && $$ SHORT TERM...SEC LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...SM