FXUS62 KGSP 191822
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
222 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are possible today as a cold front crosses 
the area, with unseasonably warm weather through Saturday. Much 
cooler temperatures and widespread light rain is expected Sunday 
with drier weather on Monday. Drier and warmer weather will return 
to the area Tuesday through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM Friday: Heating has resumed with moderate CAPE 
developing across the area. Moderate effective shear is also in 
place. A short wave and cold front drop across the area this 
afternoon. CAMs show this forcing will act on the instability to 
develop isolated to scattered thunderstorms. With the moderate 
shear and instability in place, a few strong to severe storms are 
also expected with damaging winds and large hail the main threats. 
Can't rule out some storm organization given the shear, but chances 
look limited for now. 

Convection diminishes/moves east of the area this evening as the 
cold front moves out of the area. Mid and high clouds will linger. 
Low clouds across the mountains, and possibly an isolated shower 
along the TN border, are expected overnight in the developing moist 
NW flow. Lows will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. 

Some sunshine will be seen Saturday even though mid and high clouds 
remain. Guidance disagrees on the development of moist low level 
upglide during the afternoon as the cold front stalls just to our 
south and an area of low pressure moves east along the front. 
Guidance blend keeps the area dry, so have gone that way for now. 
Thickness values are lower, so highs should be lower as well. Went 
with the guidance blend which has highs near normal for the 
mountains and around 5 degrees above normal elsewhere. Of course, if 
the cloudier or wetter guidance is correct, then lows would end up 
cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 PM Friday: Flow aloft starting off the short term period 
keeps it almost zonal Saturday night. By Sunday, a weak split trough 
breaks off from the central CONUS as a developing low dives toward 
the southeast and over the CWA. Meanwhile, near the surface a strong 
area of high pressure amplifies eastward, bringing N/NE surface flow 
and an in-situ wedge setting up Sunday and into Monday. Both Sunday 
and Monday will feel much cooler than the past few days as 
temperatures dip well below climo. As the upper low approaches, flow 
becomes more SW and brings in a chance for some rainfall across most 
of the CWA, but should move out Sunday night. Monday looks to be 
drier and temps a tick warmer as the high pressure starts to 
deamplify. Overnight temps will be coldest on Monday night. While 
temps are not expected to drop below freezing at almost all 
locations, frost could be a possibility. Stay tuned. Overall, dreary 
Sunday with some rain, cool temps and dry conditions to start off 
the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 PM Friday: By Monday night, the upper low slides off the 
coast and guidance from the GFS and EURO show a strong upper low 
churning over the Midwest/Canada region. This could bring a weak 
boundary through the area Tuesday night, but nothing major is 
expected at this point. Once that boundary lifts out of the area, 
dry conditions return as a ridge builds back over the eastern CONUS. 
As for any fire weather concerns, Tuesday may have some areas in the 
Piedmont that reach the 30 percent thresholds for RH, but winds are 
expected to remain light. Other than that, temperatures begin to 
warm back up through the period. Tuesday night looks to be the 
coldest with temps across the mountains, especially at the higher 
elevations, hovering near or right above freezing. Frost/freeze 
could be an issue, but will continue to monitor. Overall, the 
pattern looks quiet, mild, and dry for now.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Low VFR cumulus will continue to develop 
through the afternoon. Expect convection to develop as well. Have 
timed TEMPOs to show the best timing for storms. Kept it out of KAND 
for now since they have a lower chance of seeing storms. WSW wind 
this afternoon for all but KAVL where NNW wind continues. Convection 
ends this evening with mid and high clouds remaining over the area. 
MVFR cigs and vsby develop at KAVL overnight. Chance of restrictions 
elsewhere is low. Light W to NW wind overnight. N wind picks up 
speed with gusts at KAVl after daybreak. Low clouds scatter out but 
mid and high clouds continue. 

Outlook: Rain and possibly isolated thunderstorms are expected to 
develop on Sunday as a low pressure center moves by just south of 
the area, likely resulting in restrictions for at least the southern 
part of the area. Drier conditions return Monday, continuing into 
Tuesday. A weak cold front moves in from the NW Wednesday, but 
chance of precip and associated restrictions is uncertain.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...RWH