FXUS62 KILM 180143
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
943 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday. A few 
light showers are possible overnight, but more substantial rain
chances arrive on Friday as a cold front moves across the area.
The front stalls in the area for the weekend, maintaining 
elevated rain chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Overall, going forecast is in good shape tonight. The one
adjustment made was to reduce the chance of rain to 10 percent
overnight as the little shower activity that was present has 
weakened.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A steady stream of mid and high level moisture will continue 
across the area through Thursday morning. A bit of a consensus 
warrants some slight chance pops in and around 0600 UTC 
overnight otherwise it should be dry. Clouds may not be a 
prevalent or as thick Thursday when compared to today so high 
temperatures should reach the middle to perhaps even upper 80s. 
Lows tonight should be in the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Brief post-frontal high pressure on Thursday night will slide 
offshore on Friday. A cold front approaches the area on Friday 
with increasing moisture. 

Warm ahead of the front with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.
Marginal instability could produce showers and isolated 
thunderstorms, but dry air in the low levels should limit 
coverage. A storms could produce breezy outflow, but severe 
weather is not anticipated.

Diurnal convection comes to an end by Friday evening. The front
will crawl eastward overnight keeping overnight lows mild: low
to mid 60s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Crawling front stalls near or just offshore on Saturday. 
Showers near the coast on Saturday will develop near the frontal
boundary and should remain light. Developing low on Sunday will
see showers spread inland, becoming intense Sunday evening as a
shortwave out of the SW bolsters the existing energy. The
combination of rain and northerly flow from high pressure to our
north will keep temperatures well below normal. A period of 
heavy rain is possible Sunday night into early Monday as the low
intensifies.

A secondary shortwave will moves across the region late Monday
into Tuesday. The surface boundary will still be in place and
this impulse is expected to spark the development of a second 
low pressure system. This fast-moving low will bring a brief 
period of rain as dry air works into the deepening low.

Brief high pressure on Tuesday will precede another potential
cold front on Wednesday. High temperatures just below climo on
Tuesday will warm ahead of the approaching system for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Despite mid and high clouds, VFR conditions are expected through the 
valid TAF period.  Have removed MVFR BR from terminals as it seems 
unlikely given mid and high clouds present overnight at winds aoa 5 
KT. Gusty S to SW winds will diminish overnight and become more 
westerly by daybreak.  W to SW winds of 5 to 10 KT are expected 
after sunrise Thursday.  

Extended Outlook... VFR is expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday... A somewhat modest southwest flow basically 
ten knots or less will increase slightly overnight to at best 15
knots or so for a few hours. With essentially a summer like 
pattern in place (Bermuda High Pressure) speeds drop back once 
again to around ten knots later Thursday. Significant seas will 
be 2-3 feet with perhaps a few four footers.

Thursday Night through Monday... Light southerly flow continues
through the remainder of the week before variable low pressure 
and a weak cold front bring variable winds on Saturday. As the 
cold front shifts offshore late Saturday into Sunday and low 
pressure develops along the front, winds increase to 15-20 
knots. Deepening low Sunday night into Monday could see winds 
increase further with seas building to around 6 feet, mainly in 
the NC waters.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...31
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK/21