FXUS62 KMLB 040850 WRKAFD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 450 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 .DISCUSSION... TODAY...CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY FILL (WEAKEN) AS IT TRANSLATES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND RISING HEIGHTS OVER CENT FL WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL RAIN/STORM COVERAGE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WILL AMPLIFY EAST OF THE WATERS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A NE FLOW OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A COASTAL SHOWER THIS MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE RAIN-FREE. THERE WILL BE A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AFTN SHWERS/STORMS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR (LAKE COUNTY) ALONG THE DOMINANT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE REACHING THE LOWER 90S INTERIOR AND MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A LINGERING LONG PERIOD SWELL AND TIDAL INFLUENCES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES. FRI-SUN...EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-ATLANTIC CLOSED LOW BROADEN/OPEN FRI TRANSITIONING SEAWARD SAT INTO SUN AS MODEST UPPER RIDGING REPLACES OVER THE SOUTHEAST. INVERTED SFC TROUGHING JUST OFF THE SEABOARD WILL DEVELOP SFC LOW WHICH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NE MARITIMES TRAILING AND STRETCHING A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. CONSEQUENTLY...LOCAL BLYR FLOW WILL FAVOR AN ONSHORE DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD WITH SCT POPS...BUT HIGHER VALUES INLAND. MAX TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND MIN TEMPS IN LOW 70S. MON-WED...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP FORECAST DRAMA SOMEWHAT LIMITED. SFC PATTERN YIELDS INITIAL ONSHORE FLOW VEERING FROM SE TO S TO SSW MON-WED AS RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SOUTHWARD. POPS WILL DIAL TO 40-50 PERCENT MOST PLACES WITH BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCAL BOUNDARY INTERACTION FOR STORMS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO. && .AVIATION...MAINLY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. DEVELOPING NE FLOW AND RATHER DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLD ATLC SHRA MAY BRUSH COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION VC TERM FOR INTERIOR TERMINALS THIS AFTN. && .MARINE... TODAY/TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WITHIN A WEAK PRES GRAD ENVIRONMENT. BUT A STEADY NE FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH AMPLIFIES EAST OF THE WATERS. SEAS 2-3FT. THE NORTH WIND COMPONENT WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPIER SEAS ESP IN THE GULF STREAM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOW. FRI-SUN...SEAS AOB 3 FT WITH WINDS AOB 10-15 KT. SCT STORMS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 70 87 70 / 10 10 20 20 MCO 91 72 90 71 / 20 10 40 20 MLB 87 72 88 71 / 20 10 20 20 VRB 87 71 87 70 / 20 10 30 20 LEE 91 72 91 73 / 30 10 40 20 SFB 89 71 90 70 / 20 10 30 20 ORL 90 73 91 73 / 20 10 40 20 FPR 87 70 87 69 / 20 10 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT-TERM/AVIATION...SK LONG-TERM....DS