FXUS62 KTAE 091715 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 115 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1037 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Tweaked the PoP forecast starting this morning and continuing through the early evening. Outside of that no major changes were made to the forecast. For what's going on right now, the morning stratus has broken apart with cumulus clouds taking over the region. To our north, around and south of I-85 scattered to widespread convection is on going and traveling eastward. To the north of that a line of storms is diving to the southeast. Expect growth in these areas to continue with a more linear form pushing south into our region. Though some cells could develop ahead of that. SPC Mesoanalysis page is starting to line up with the near term forecast below. All modes of severe weather remain possible, with damaging to destructive winds continuing to have the highest threat. Large hail, especially with the more unidirectional flow aloft, and a few tornadoes remain possible. Current analysis shows 2500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE and MUCAPE, with ML CAPE more diverse 1000 J/kg East, the 1500 J/kg contour along the Chattahoochee, and around 2000 J/kg along the western FL Panhandle into SE AL. DCAPE looks particularly juicy too this early, with 600-900 J/kg along and west of the Chatahoochee and Apalachicola Rivers. Shear remains bountiful as well, and the 12Z sounding shows some southwesterly winds in the lower levels with strong westerlies in the mid to upper levels, giving more unidirectional shear. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 431 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 An active next 36 hours is upon us with 2 rounds of severe thunderstorms, the first round arriving early this afternoon across our northern counties and working south into the evening hours. Round two will arrive in the overnight hours from west to east and this second round appears to be the more significant of the two rounds. All modes of severe weather will be possible with damaging to destructive winds as the highest threat. SPC for today has expanded the enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) further south to the Florida state line with the slight risk (level 2 of 5) also expanded further south to include all our coastal sections. SPC continues the marginal risk for Friday (level 1 of 5) across our entire area with the exception from Albany to Bainbridge to Tallahassee and points eastward have been upgraded to a slight risk. Mid level flow will become more zonal today as a mid level high retrogrades into Mexico and an upper low retrogrades towards the Great Basin. A shortwave trough is supporting widespread development of storms currently in the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley which will gradually move southeast today. The atmosphere will remain unstable this afternoon with SBCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg, MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg, and DCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Coupled that with bulk shear around 40 knots and mid level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km and severe thunderstorms will be likely with both rounds this afternoon and overnight. Latest CAMs have the first round making it south into the Big Bend into the early evening hours which is a slight change from a few runs ago and have increased pop chances here through 00Z. Round 1 Timing will begin around 12pm ET in our northern and northwestern sections in AL and GA, moving south through the day, arriving into the Florida Big later this afternoon into early evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 431 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Throughout Friday the ridge slides eastward as a trough looks to move across eastern CONUS. A fast moving shortwave coming off the Rockies zooms eastward merging with another shortwave rounding the base of the developing trough. As these two features merge, over the southeast, early Friday morning into Friday afternoon, our risk for severe weather increases. This correlates with why the SPC has our region, north of I-10, under a Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather through 8am ET Friday. Areas east of a line from Albany, GA to Tallahassee, FL are under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) through the rest of Friday. With low-level winds possibly around 30- 45 kts, PWATs around 2 inches and a defined shortwave providing forcing for ascent via PVA, the ingredients for severe would be present. All hazard types are possible, with hi-res guidance indicating a preference towards QLCS solutions, strong damaging winds would be our primary hazard of concern. Depending on how far south the first round of severe weather gets today (Thursday) will determine where our second round ends up as it seeks out higher instability. How late into the day on Friday the front decides to move across the region will also determine if we see diurnal instability aid in forcing for ascent for additional showers and storms throughout Friday afternoon. With higher PWATs comes an increased risk of torrential downpours leading to localized flash flooding issues. Which is why we're under a slight and marginal risk for excessive rainfall from WPC. The front is expected to clear the region by Friday night. Clear and dry conditions are in store through the rest of the weekend. Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows generally in the low 70s tonight before frontal passage. Overnight lows will then be in the low 60s Saturday morning after frontal passage. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 431 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Being post-frontal will lead to relatively cooler temps and a decrease in moisture as northerly flow prevails through Monday morning. Although surface winds will be southerly during the afternoon hours due to the sea breeze, high pressure will lead to large-scale subsidence. Limiting development to fair weather Cu or developing towers that fizzle away. On Monday another shortwave looks to move across the northern Gulf states with our region possibly being impacted on Tuesday as winds turn to being southeasterly. With this shortwave possibly moving overhead, a stationary boundary to our south, left behind from the previous system, and a low-level wind field again around 30-45 kts, the potential for severe is once again present. We'll have to see how this progresses over the next few days to have better confidence, be sure to come back for updates. Expect relatively cooler temps to what we've been experiencing as of late. Daytime highs will generally be in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s until Tuesday morning. Beyond Tuesday morning, overnight lows look to rebound into the mid and upper 60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 113 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are expected to continue for the afternoon hours for all TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon through the rest of the TAF period. Some storms may be severe with destructive wind gusts and large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. The timing of storms is expected in two rounds, with the first starting this afternoon at the beginning of this TAF period, and the second round arriving late overnight into the morning hours on Friday. During storms, expect poor flight conditions. Outside of storms, we do expect gusty winds for the afternoon. Winds may gust up to 25-30kts with southwesterly winds sustained around 15-20kts. Storms are expected to clear out of the region by the end of this term but, there may be some lingering thunderstorms in the late morning into early afternoon Friday. Confidence in this possible third round is low at this time. This will be determined by how today's storms behave. && .MARINE... Issued at 1037 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 An Atlantic ridge axis across the southern Florida Peninsula will retreat southward today. A cold front will slowly approach from the north on Friday, preceded by strong to severe thunderstorms over the waters. Cautionary conditions could be possible. The front will limp across the waters on Friday night. It will be followed by moderate to occasionally fresh northerly breezes on Saturday morning. Surface high pressure over the southern Plains on Saturday will move across the Southeast States on Sunday, causing winds to clock around. High pressure will move east into the Atlantic on Monday, brining a return to south- southeasterly flow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 431 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Several rounds of wetting rains and possible severe thunderstorms are on tap through Friday afternoon. The first round will arrive into our southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia area early this afternoon then move south into our Florida counties by mid to late afternoon. There appears to be a lull this evening ahead of the second round of storms in the overnight into Friday morning hours moving from west to east. All modes of severe weather will be possible with the storms with damaging to destructive winds as the highest threat. Outside of rain and storms, high dispersions are possible today along the I-75 corridor westward towards the Apalachicola river. Conditions improve behind these rounds of storms heading into this weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 431 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 A slight risk of excessive rainfall exists for the northern half of our area today, with a marginal risk for most of the area on Friday as a frontal system looks to push through the region. The primary risk here being torrential downpours or training within any thunderstorm(s) leading to a localized flash flooding risk. Otherwise, area rivers are expected to remain below flood stage. In the extended period the WPC is forecasting 3-5 inches by midweek next week. This could introduce some riverine concerns, however, it's too far out to say with any degree of confidence. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 73 84 63 83 / 30 90 10 0 Panama City 73 83 64 83 / 20 60 0 0 Dothan 71 85 59 80 / 50 80 0 0 Albany 70 85 59 80 / 50 70 0 0 Valdosta 71 83 62 81 / 40 90 10 0 Cross City 72 85 64 85 / 20 80 30 0 Apalachicola 75 82 66 81 / 20 50 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ108-112- 114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Scholl SHORT TERM...Oliver LONG TERM....Oliver AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Oliver FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Oliver