FXUS63 KABR 072303 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 603 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low pressure continues to spin over the region tonight through Wednesday before finally departing Wednesday night. Additional shower/thunderstorm chances (20-40%) on Wednesday in associated with this low pressure. - Below average temperatures can be expected through at least Thursday. Above average temperatures are looking likely over the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 558 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Precipitation coverage continues to diminish late this afternoon/early this evening. Winds will slowly diminish this evening as well, with little to no changes expected to the ongoing forecast. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Low pressure continues to spin across the region, now centered along the ND/SD border north of KMBG. Obs still show strong westerly winds gusting into advisory levels across much of central/south central SD, so will continue with the Wind Advisory until 00Z this evening before winds start to slowly diminish. Radar imagery continues to show light showers across central/north central SD and trying to stretch as far east as Brown county. Hi-res model trend is to bring an end to these showers later this evening as the surface low starts to shift northwestward further into ND. On Wednesday, the upper low shifts to the south of the region, but with daytime heating and the colder temps aloft associated with the upper low, look for increasing clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms by afternoon. Minimal instability in place (<1000 J/KG in HREF mean) , but enough to perhaps bring small hail with any stronger cores that potentially develop. Although, the majority of convective activity may be a bit further south of the CWA closer to the upper low circulation. Current forecast features generally 20- 40% coverage of showers/storms Wednesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 The long term begins on Thursday with northerly flow aloft with drier air moving into the region from the north. While Thursday appears to be mostly dry, cannot rule out isolated, 20 pop, during the afternoon hours over the higher terrain area in eastern SD, and further west over western SD. After a period of dry conditions Thursday night into Friday, a shortwave diving southeast across MN will bring a 20 to 30% chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Deterministic models have trended a bit further east, perhaps keeping a good portion of the CWA dry. The NBM is trending drier as well, with pops now capped at 25% or less across the far northeast portion of the CWA. Northerly winds may be the main issue on Friday as the NBM a greater than 30 percent chance wind gusts over 45 mph. While half km winds off the GFS are rather unimpressive, buffer soundings do indicate deep mixing on Friday, with peak gusts around 35 knots. The weekend will feature dry conditions with high temperatures warming into the 70s. A potential trough and associated frontal boundary may cross the region early next week, bringing the at least a 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Timing is the main issue and causes more of a broad brush approach with pops early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 558 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR ceilings and visibility are expected to continue. Strong winds currently gusting 30-40kts will diminish by about 10kts by 02Z Wednesday, with winds at or below 20kts at all locations Wednesday afternoon. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ033>037-045-048-051. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...KF SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...SD AVIATION...KF