FXUS63 KDDC 230800 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong north to northeast winds will overspread southwest KS Tuesday morning and afternoon behind a cold front. - Severe thunderstorms remain possible across our area Thursday afternoon and evening, although confidence is decreasing. - Another weather system on Saturday reignites severe potential, but confidence again is not high. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal west-northwesterly flow is in place atop the central plains, with a strong shortwave trough digging east-southeast over the northern plains/upper Midwest. At the surface, a ~997-mb low is located over southern Ontario, Canada, with an attendant cold front stretching to the southwest. This boundary is progged to pass through southwest KS early Tuesday morning, with strong northerly winds sustained in the 20-30 mph range gusting to 40 mph overspreading our area in its wake. Resulting cold advection will shave roughly 5-10 degrees off afternoon temperatures with highs in the low to mid 70s. Towards sunset, winds will gradually weaken and veer to easterly as surface high pressure builds into the central plains. These upslope winds may support a few scattered showers as 0Z HREF suggests, so inherited slight chance (15-24%) to low-end chance (25-54%) pops were maintained. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies will keep a lid on significant radiational cooling, with lows staying in the 40s. Daytime Wednesday, a pair of upper level shortwave troughs, one moving onto the west coast of Canada and the other moving onto the far southwest CONUS, will result in broad lee cyclogenesis beginning from eastern CO northward into Canada. Winds will flip to southeasterly in response, and become somewhat strong especially across the western zones. Theta-e advection on the back of this flow will foster mostly cloudy skies across southwest KS, limiting afternoon highs to the mid 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Medium range ensembles place the upper level trough center roughly over Las Vegas, NV, at 12Z Thursday, followed by a northeastward ejection during the day to near the Four Corners by 00Z Friday, representing a notably slower trend. This slower trend throws another wrench into the potential for severe convection Thursday afternoon and evening as the later arrival of forcing increases confidence the cap (+8-9C 700-mb temperatures) will hold. However, if the cap is breached, the atmosphere will be primed for severe hazards as a deepening surface low in eastern CO will foster strengthening southeast winds/theta-e advection which will draw at least low 60s dewpoints into southwest KS ahead of the dryline that is expected to be located near US-83 by mid-afternoon. Primary convective mode will likely be supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Daytime Friday, ensembles suggest the upper level shortwave will wrap up into a closed, negatively tilted low over the northern plains, putting southwest KS well within the dry slot of its attendant surface cyclone. Strong west/west-southwest winds, warm temperatures, and fire weather conditions will be the result. Over the weekend, the subtropical jet wave train will quickly reload as both the ECMWF EPS and GEFS bring another upper level trough from the Desert Southwest at 12Z Saturday into the central plains by 00Z Sunday. Timing of this wave ejection appears much more optimal for convective activity across southwest KS, some potentially severe, but ensembles are fairly pessimistic regarding precipitation potential as probability of QPF > 0.1" is less than 50% for much of the area. Currently, roughly the northern third of our CWA has the best chance of beneficial rainfall as probability of QPF > 0.1" is in the 50-70% range. Once this wave passes Saturday night into Sunday morning, the remainder of the forecast period looks quiet and dry as medium range ensembles show increasing 500-mb heights over the central plains. Cooler air will filter into southwest KS on the back side of the northeast advancing surface low on Sunday which will support afternoon highs in the 70s, but low to mid 80s return on Monday underneath synoptic-scale subsidence. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current breezy southerly winds will abruptly flip to north/northeast as a cold front passes through southwest KS during the overnight period, quickly followed by an increase into the 18-23 kt range with gusts of 28-33 kts by sunrise. Mid-afternoon Tuesday, winds will begin to relax as surface high pressure builds into the central plains, becoming light and variable before midnight Wednesday morning. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Springer LONG TERM...Springer AVIATION...Springer