FXUS63 KGRR 220354
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1154 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Dry weather is expected through Monday night with a gradual warming 
trend that will be helped by decreasing cloudiness after today. 
Highs will push into the low 60s on Sunday and rise into the upper 
60s on Monday. Rain showers will be possible from Tuesday morning 
through Wednesday morning but precipitation amounts will be light. 
Conditions will again become cool and unsettled Thursday night
into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Main concern is high temperatures Sunday and Monday. With high 
clouds less of a factor than today, it is possible that actual 
maximum temperatures both days could exceed the forecast by several 
degrees, making 70+ degrees plausible in spots on Monday. This could 
even include the lakeshore if winds maintain an offshore direction 
during the day.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Chances for rain showers return towards Tuesday morning and exit to 
the southeast Wednesday morning. Precipitation should be generally 
light. This activity will be associated with an approaching upper 
trough and attendant cold front. Some extra upper deformation may be 
in play too since the upper cutoff low that is centered over SE CO 
today should be just southeast of Lower MI by Tuesday. Atmospheric 
moisture will be lacking overall with this event due to persistent 
surface high pressure over the eastern CONUS preventing favorable 
flow from the Gulf of Mexico to this far north.

The next system for the end of the week looks cold enough for a 
rain/snow mix Thursday night around US-10. Rain showers are
expected to continue into Friday with little total precipitation
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours with mostly
clear skies and wind speeds below 10 kts. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Winds will be light and waves generally a foot or less into early 
next week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Although winds will be light, maximum temperature and minimum
relative humidity forecasts will be a bit challenging Sunday and
Monday. Forecast models tend to struggle with handling atmospheric
moisture in the low levels as mixing heights steadily grow from 
day to day. Monday especially could end up substantially drier 
and warmer than what is currently forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Lowland flooding near riverbanks will be ongoing over the next 
several days as water from last weekend's mixed precipitation event 
moves through the river basins. Since no heavy rain events are 
anticipated in the next week, rivers will gradually crest then 
subside with only nuisance level impacts.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...Laurens
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...TJT