FXUS63 KGRR 220354 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1154 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 Dry weather is expected through Monday night with a gradual warming trend that will be helped by decreasing cloudiness after today. Highs will push into the low 60s on Sunday and rise into the upper 60s on Monday. Rain showers will be possible from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning but precipitation amounts will be light. Conditions will again become cool and unsettled Thursday night into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 Main concern is high temperatures Sunday and Monday. With high clouds less of a factor than today, it is possible that actual maximum temperatures both days could exceed the forecast by several degrees, making 70+ degrees plausible in spots on Monday. This could even include the lakeshore if winds maintain an offshore direction during the day. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 Chances for rain showers return towards Tuesday morning and exit to the southeast Wednesday morning. Precipitation should be generally light. This activity will be associated with an approaching upper trough and attendant cold front. Some extra upper deformation may be in play too since the upper cutoff low that is centered over SE CO today should be just southeast of Lower MI by Tuesday. Atmospheric moisture will be lacking overall with this event due to persistent surface high pressure over the eastern CONUS preventing favorable flow from the Gulf of Mexico to this far north. The next system for the end of the week looks cold enough for a rain/snow mix Thursday night around US-10. Rain showers are expected to continue into Friday with little total precipitation expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours with mostly clear skies and wind speeds below 10 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 Winds will be light and waves generally a foot or less into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 Although winds will be light, maximum temperature and minimum relative humidity forecasts will be a bit challenging Sunday and Monday. Forecast models tend to struggle with handling atmospheric moisture in the low levels as mixing heights steadily grow from day to day. Monday especially could end up substantially drier and warmer than what is currently forecast. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 Lowland flooding near riverbanks will be ongoing over the next several days as water from last weekend's mixed precipitation event moves through the river basins. Since no heavy rain events are anticipated in the next week, rivers will gradually crest then subside with only nuisance level impacts. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TJT SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...TJT AVIATION...Laurens FIRE WEATHER...TJT HYDROLOGY...CAS MARINE...TJT