FXUS63 KICT 261136 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 636 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Showers and storms expected this morning, severe weather not expected * Storms possible across the Flint Hills this afternoon, possibly severe * Severe storms, possibly significant, likely midday Saturday into Saturday night * Active weather pattern through much of next week; multiple chances for rainfall && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 As of 3 AM Friday morning, a longwave, midlevel trough was positioned across western CONUS. The first in a series of shortwave tough axis' was progressing through the central and southern High Plains. A well-defined surface warm front extends from near Tulsa, OK to just south of Ponca City, OK to just south of Pratt, KS and northwestward from there to the surface low in east-central CO. Persistent, strong low-level WAA has kept overcast conditions with occasional drizzle north of the warm front. As the midlevel shortwave trough ejects northeastward, the warm front will retreat northward. In conjunction with the northward retreating warm front, the dryline, currently just east of the CO stateline, will advance eastward through the remainder of the night into this afternoon. As the dryline progresses into central KS after 4 AM, better midlevel ascent, from the right entrance region of the 500 mb jet, will result in more-widespread thunderstorm development. It will be a close-call whether storm inflow can originate within the boundary layer. Point-and-click RAP soundings suggest the most likely scenario is storms will remain just elevated, constraining any potential severe weather hazards to large hail up to quarter size and damaging winds up to 60 mph. Should an updraft ingest surface- based-parcels with subsequent supercell structures, a tornado would become increasingly possible. These trends will need to be monitored closely through sunrise. Transitioning into the afternoon hours today, the aforementioned dryline will continue its march eastward, taking position across the Flint Hills by mid-afternoon. The environment immediately ahead of the dryline will be comprised of 1500-2500 MLCAPE with 50-60 kts of effective shear. Hodographs structures ahead of the dryline have sufficient veering within the lowest 2 km or so but become unidirectional, if not subtle backing, from 2-6 km. While, a dominate right-moving supercell is possible, the subtle backing above 2 km may lead to storm splits. All of that to say, large hail up to baseball size and a tornado or two are possible with the strongest storms. Again, this threat extends east of a line from Emporia to Eureka to Sedan. Any storm will rapidly move northeast and clear the area by 7 PM. Behind the previously mentioned dryline, low-level moisture is greatly scoured with surface dew points falling into the 30s. As the evening/night progresses the near-surface moisture will rapidly retreat westward with dew points returning into the low to mid 60s. The deep, low-level moisture will remain across central TX through midnight tonight/Saturday morning. This deeper moisture will begin its trek northward as a surface low deepens across southeast CO. Latest short range deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests showers/storms will develop along the nose of this moisture plume. These will rapidly spread north and northeast from north TX/southwest OK. The evolution and scope of these showers/storms will play a pivotal role in afternoon storms with a couple of scenarios that may play out. SCENARIO 1: These showers and storms develop across north TX/southwest OK and gradually move north through the morning/early afternoon. As the move northward, they will move in an increasingly buoyant environment with upwards of 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Long, veering hodographs would support a transition to a cluster of thunderstorms, some with supercell structures. Any sustained supercell structure would have the potential to produce very large hail (baseball size or larger) and tornadoes. Then eyes would turn westward to the dryline for any boundary layer recovery that may occur for later in the afternoon. Any dryline storms that develop along the dryline from roughly Hays to Greensburg would have the potential for all hazards including large hail up to baseball size and tornadoes. SCENARIO 2: These showers/storms develop across north TX/southwest OK. They EXPAND in coverage as they progress northeastward and drastically disrupt the downstream environment and reducing the likelihood for these to become surface based. This would reduce the potential for severe storms. Like in scenario 1, eyes would turn westward to the dryline for any boundary layer recovery that may occur for later in the afternoon. Again, any storm that develops along the dryline from roughly Hays to Greensburg would have the potential for all hazards including large hail up to baseball size and tornadoes. The million dollar question is which scenario is more likely. At this point, it seems a near guarantee that showers/storms develop across north TX/southwest OK and gradually move northeastward. An overall lack of strong large scale forcing for ascent, shouldn't foster an expansive zone of showers/storms. Therefore, I don't expect a significant modification of the downstream environment into portions of central, south-central, and southeast KS. As such, scenario 1 seems the most plausible with open warm sector severe storms during the afternoon. Then a second round of severe storms developing along the dryline as the main midlevel shortwave ejects into the Plains towards 7pm. Transitioning into Saturday night/Sunday morning, large scale ascent will increase leading to additional thunderstorm development across central/south-central KS. Thunderstorm hazards should transition to primarily a damaging wind threat. A few lapse rate driven showers/storms are possible into Sunday as the midlevel low pivots across NE/SD. The midlevel pattern looks to remain active into next week with zonal flow persisting. Several shortwave trough axis' are progged to eject across the Plains with multiple rain chances. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Lingering IFR/MVFR cigs will linger this morning with VFR conditions expected for most areas by midday as a warm front lifts north of the area. Strong and gusty southwest winds will develop west of the turnpike behind the passage of a dry-line front this afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe convection is possible across southeast Kansas today. KED && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Today: Very high grassland fire danger is expected this afternoon as dry air and windy conditions affect portions of central Kansas. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMB AVIATION...KED FIRE WEATHER...BMB/JC