FXUS63 KIWX 111839
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
239 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts diminish and decreasing clouds this evening.

- Warmer; a beautiful Spring afternoon Sunday.

- Wet weather returns later Monday afternoon through Tuesday
  night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

It's been a cool, breezy afternoon thanks to strong cold air 
advection in the wake of this morning's cold front. Southern 
Michigan has been socked in with clouds most of the day as the upper-
level low pivots through the state. However, this feature is now 
lifting northeast such that decreasing clouds are expected beyond 
sunset, especially as the lake breeze pushes inland these next
few hours.

Warm air advection ramps up on Mother's Day (Hi, Mom!) as a 
trough digging into the Southern Plains buckles the upstream 
500-mb pattern. High temperatures will soar well into the 70s 
under mostly sunny skies. High clouds are favored to stream in 
from the northwest late in the day as a low streaks through 
Quebec, with any associated late-day rain showers confined to 
central and northern Michigan. Overnight and into Monday 
morning, a weak secondary low is forecast to develop across 
southern Michigan. Newly available high resolution guidance 
suggests most of this activity will be confined north of the 
Michigan border; POPs have been adjusted accordingly. 

Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive later Monday 
afternoon through Monday night as the aformentioned Southern 
Plains trough lifts over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. The 
associated surface low and warm front will be a focus for the 
greatest rainfall totals Monday night through Tuesday. the 
Weather Prediction Center has increased their rainfall forecast 
(a trend in the right direction), forecasting totals near 1" 
Monday through Wednesday, when the trough finally clears the 
forecast area. 

Drying out Wednesday and most of Thursday (in-house blend
counties to be too broad and fast with POPs on Thursday) before
our next trough moves through, threatening another dose of wet 
weather Friday and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Strong subsidence drying will ensure VFR through the period. Gusty 
nw winds will collapse toward sunset and becoming light/variable 
overnight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...T