FXUS63 KLMK 101435 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1035 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy and cooler to end the week with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal. * Gusty showers possible, mainly northeast of Louisville Saturday afternoon. * Active pattern next week with daily chances of showers and storms Monday through Wednesday. Severe weather is not expected through at least Tuesday. Strong storm chances may increase slightly by Wednesday and again Friday, but confidence is low. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1034 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 The forecast is in good shape this morning. Tweaked PoPs and Wx grids over the next couple of hours. A narrow zone of light rain and drizzle is drifting south over south-central KY, currently from Warren/Edmonson counties east to Casey and Lincoln counties. BKN stratus stretches across central KY on the cool side of a sfc trough, which has dipped into TN. Some partial clearing is now occurring in southern IN with cooler, drier air filtering in from the north. We'll see gradual improvement with clouds scattering and lifting from north to south through the afternoon. Temperatures range from the mid 50s to lower 60s this morning and are likely to top out in the 65-70 F range this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 750 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 The first of a series of shortwave troughs will be located across southern IN and the Ohio River this morning. It will push a mid- level vort max and a weak sfc boundary through the area this morning into the early afternoon. Current GOES-16 nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows a band of low stratus just north of the Ohio River into southern IN and all of Ohio. These clouds will spread southward during the pre-dawn hours and there is a small chance we could see a few sprinkles or pockets of drizzle but most will remain dry during the morning hours. As the boundary drops south into central and southern KY during the day, winds will become northerly and a bit breezy with sustained winds around 10 mph and gusts of 20 to 25 mph. The northerly flow will advect in colder air to make for a below normal and brisk end to the week. Clouds are expect to slowly clear out towards the afternoon, but depending on quickly they clear out from north to south temperatures should mainly be in the mid/upper 60s, but if we get more sunshine to the north a few locations could top out near or even low 70s. There is also a slight chance of afternoon showers around the Lake Cumberland region close to the departing boundary and shortwave. Skies will clear and winds will diminish during the evening. This will lead to temperatures in the 40s to near 50 overnight. The second shortwave trough will drop out of the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley overnight and be just north of the Ohio River in southern IN tomorrow morning. This will increase cloud cover towards daybreak tomorrow and start to increase the chance of a few showers towards dawn. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 750 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Saturday... An intense shortwave (trop fold down to 500mb) will rotate through the Great Lakes region on Saturday. There looks to be a decent amount of moisture in the 850-700mb layer that will accompany the shortwave, especially across our NE CWA. Forecast soundings show very steep low level lapse rates from late morning through the afternoon, with some healthy positive area below the inversion around 700 mb. Given that, expect scattered showers to rotate through our region, with the best coverage across our NE where moisture is most impressive. Also noticing that the BL will be mixed up into a 30 knot layer, which will support gusty conditions at the surface. Will advertise gusts mostly in the 25 to 30 mph range through the afternoon. A few gusts will likely reach 35 mph, especially with shower activity. Look for temps peaking in the 70 to 75 degree range, but the gusty winds may make this day feel a bit cooler than reality. Saturday Night - Sunday Night... The rest of the weekend looks dry with surface high pressure in place beneath dry NW flow aloft. Highs on Sunday should be a bit milder, and more solidly into the mid 70s for many. Look for 40s to around 50 for lows on Saturday night, and a milder night in the low and mid 50s heading into Monday morning. Monday - Wednesday... Our chances for more widespread showers and a few storms picks up again through the early to mid week timeframe as a closed low meandering over the eastern Plains gets picked up by the northern stream westerlies and ejects into our region. This feature is expected to be pretty moisture laden given its original Pacific origin, and slow movement drawing plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture as well. As a result, forecast soundings take on a tall/skinny profile in conjunction with PWATs up around 1.5 through the column. Doesn't appear to be a whole lot of instability to work with, but enough to warrant continue thunderstorm mention. Highs should mostly be in the mid/upper 70s through this stretch, although could see temps struggling a bit under a moist, showery, and cloudy setup. Diurnal ranges should generally be smaller in this setup, so looking for milder nights only dropping down around 60 for most. Wednesday Night - Thursday... Decent confidence for a brief dry spell Wednesday night into Thursday beneath shortwave ridging and surface high pressure in the wake of the mid week system. Looking for highs in the upper 70s and low 80s under partly sunny skies. The brief dry spell will be welcome as another, and possibly stronger system, arrives to end the work week. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms look possible then. Pattern looks like it could support some stronger storms. Something to watch through next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 641 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Low stratus associated with a shortwave trough will continue to push southward this morning then eventually lift and clear out later this afternoon. We will see some MVFR flight categories for most locations at the beginning of the forecast period but start to see improvement from north to south as CIGs lift to VFR through the late morning into the early afternoon. Winds will remain breezy out of the north and could get gusts of around 20kts this afternoon. Clouds will scatter out and clear overnight with winds diminishing remaining VFR through the rest of the forecast. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...EBW SHORT TERM...BTN LONG TERM...BJS AVIATION...BTN