FXUS63 KMPX 191157 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 657 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance for isolated-scattered snow showers this afternoon. No accumulation expected. - Temperatures drop to near/below freezing again tonight. - Quiet weather through the weekend, with the next rain bearing system arriving early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin has started to dance along the metaphorical line of freezing temps as the mid-level clouds continue to scatter out across the area. Any susceptible vegetation will be at risk again tonight with temperatures expected to be 1-3 degrees cooler than what we see this morning. In collaboration with neighboring offices, a widespread mention of isolated-scattered snow showers has been introduced for this afternoon. Model soundings show a cloud layer developing within the DGZ where near dry adiabatic lapse rates will be present. There will also be a deep enough cold layer to keep any falling precip primarily as snow. This combination of forcing and mid-level moisture could be enough to result in the light snow showers. The HRRR has been one of the more aggressive models for this trend. The main limiting factor will be the pocket of dry air below the cloudy layer that any precipitation will need to overcome. Thus, the other possible outcome would be widespread virga, especially the further south you travel. Regardless of whether you see more snow or virga, no significant accumulation is expected. Surface high pressure will keep things relatively quiet through Monday morning, with below average temperatures, breezy conditions, and mostly clear skies expected. Our next upper-level disturbance will shoot southeast from Canada Monday night into Tuesday. The system will look to occlude and spin across the Upper Midwest, resulting in a prolonged period of cloudy/rainy conditions. The heaviest rain will most likely fall during the initial passage of the system, but QPF looks generally light overall with only a few tenths expected at most. There is potential for thunder to mix in, especially with the initial passage, however the ingredients for anything convective are relatively underwhelming at the moment. Following this system, highs will trend into the 60s as ridging builds in from the west. The CFSv2 accumulated supercell composite parameter also hints a more active period may be setting up for the central CONUS towards the end of April. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 All TAF sites will start out as VFR but clouds will be on the increase from the north through this morning, eventually becoming a stratus deck around 4-5 kft. Confidence has increased enough to make a more solid mention of snow showers for all sites except KRWF-KMKT, which look to be too far south for any appreciable snowfall so have omitted its mention from those two sites. For the remaining 5 sites, while no accumulation is expected, intermittent snow showers do look to be sufficient to bring a visibility reduction to MVFR, especially since it will come in conjunction with an increase in winds. WNW winds will increase to near 20G30kts early this afternoon through this evening, which is generally the same timing of the snowfall. Conditions will improve overnight through tomorrow while wind speeds diminish. KMSP...Will expect ceilings to develop around noon with snow showers developing roughly 1-3pm, then continuing through the evening push. Ceilings may reach MVFR level but not confident enough to include them for MSP at this point. Main issues will be intermittent visibility reductions with the snow showers and 280-290 winds increase late morning into this evening. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25kts. SUN...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15kts. MON...Chc MVFR/-SHRA in aftn. Wind S 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn- Goodhue-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin- McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott- Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Chippewa-Dunn- Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...JPC