FXUS64 KAMA 261108 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 608 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 The axis of yesterday's trough is lifting over and out of the area this morning, leaving the Panhandles warm and dry. One sfc low will be replaced by another, creating just enough of a pressure gradient for 15-25 mph southwest winds. The southwest TX Panhandle could see a bit more of a breeze, with gusts over 30 mph possible during the afternoon hours. These dry, downsloping winds will help temperatures reach the 80s, while relative humidity values drop into the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions will be in place over the western combined Panhandles as a result. Main focus for the short term resides in Saturday, when a potent closed low near the Four Corners region provides stronger winds across the CWA, and perhaps some storms near the TX-OK border. Placement of the left exit region of an upper level jet streak would favor a deepening sfc low in the vicinity of SE Colorado to SW Kansas. Although not terribly impressive, this will generate a decent pressure gradient over the Panhandles. Windy conditions will ensue as a result, with sustained southwest winds of 20-30 mph expected across a majority of the Panhandles. Subsidence and low to mid level lapse rates should be favorable for decent mixing of stronger winds aloft, allowing for gusts in the 35-45 mph range. With warm, windy, and dry conditions expected, critical fire weather concerns will return for portions of the CWA. We still expect the dryline to mix further east Saturday afternoon, likely settling along or east of the TX-OK border, shunting the vast majority of any severe threat out of the forecast area. If any locations in the Panhandles are going to hold onto the moist side of the dryline, it would be easternmost portions of the easternmost stack of counties of the Texas Panhandle. For this reason, we'll continue to hold onto <30% POPs in those areas. Any storms that develop could become severe, but likely not before quickly crossing into western Oklahoma. Harrel && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 As the upper level and attendant sfc low depart Saturday night, a weak cold front will drop south, providing only minimal reductions in temperatures Sunday. Rising 850mb temps initiate a warming trend through midweek, as zonal flow to perhaps some subtle ridging aloft gradually settles in. Afternoon temperatures rebound nicely to the 70s and 80s Monday, before further escalating towards the low 90s on Tuesday. The eastern Panhandles will have the best probability to exceed 90 degrees Tue afternoon, about a 30-60% chance, along with the typical warm spots. Anticipate dry conditions to dominate during this timeframe. By Wed-Thu, there's high uncertainty regarding whether or not moisture can make its way back to the region. If it can manifest for portions of the area, deterministic and ensemble guidance still hold hope that a minor disturbance could track our way and bring rain/storm chances. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear to be the strongest signal for rain, and it wouldn't be for the entire area. Regardless, expect a slight cool down through the end of the work week. And if it's any consolation, winds look to behave quite nicely throughout the period. Harrel && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 VFR conditions all around for the 12z TAF cycle. Breezy winds out of the west-southwest will be around 10-20 kts, with occasional gusts up to 30 kts possible this afternoon, before coming down overnight. Harrel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 81 51 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 85 51 85 47 / 0 0 10 10 Boise City OK 80 45 74 41 / 0 0 10 10 Borger TX 86 54 85 50 / 0 0 0 10 Boys Ranch TX 84 51 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 81 50 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 83 51 83 51 / 0 0 10 10 Dalhart TX 80 44 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 83 48 80 44 / 0 0 10 10 Hereford TX 81 49 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 84 53 85 51 / 0 0 20 10 Pampa TX 83 53 82 49 / 0 0 10 10 Shamrock TX 84 51 84 52 / 0 0 30 20 Wellington TX 85 53 84 52 / 0 0 30 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...38