FXUS64 KEPZ 252016 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 216 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Warm and windy conditions will continue through Saturday with the strongest winds anticipated this afternoon and again Saturday. Sunday through next week will feature breezy afternoons and warming temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 UL low is centered roughly over the Four Corners this afternoon with its jet basically overhead and deepening surface cyclone over Eastern CO. With frontogenesis occurring across our CWA, it's difficult to decisively conclude where the cold front is, but based on temperatures it's probably toward the Continental Divide as of 130PM. Dust sources have activated, so visibility is degraded. Our wind event is well on its way and will continue through the remainder of the afternoon. Current wind products look good though our Texas counties have been a bit slow to respond. We still think winds will continue to increase for this area. After sunset, we should begin to see winds gradually subside while dust settles. Friday will be a relatively quiet day in between systems, but we'll remain at the base of the long wave trough with a 990 mb surface cyclone over the OK Panhandle. No wind products are anticipated, but the winds will create elevated to locally critical fire conditions. Dust is also mentioned in the grids. Saturday looks on pace to be another windy day. Another closed low will take roughly the same path as today or perhaps a little farther south. Main jet will swing through across the International Border with a ~995 mb low expected to form over SW KS. NBM values are only a few knots lower than today's event, so more wind headlines will likely be needed. I will let current wind products expire before any decisions on where and what type (warning versus advisory) of headline is needed. Strongest winds will be across East Slope areas and highest elevations. Gusts look to range 40 to 50 MPH west and 50 to 60 MPH east, especially the locations already mentioned. Blowing dust will also likely be a concern again. The system also appears to have a bit better moisture, bringing with it slight chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm across the Gila. The Euro drags precip chances all the way south to the International Border though it appears to be an outlier. On Sunday, we'll remain breezy as we remain at the base of a trough. Main thrust of energy though will be well to our east, so winds will be much lighter than the previous days. Sunday will also be the last day of the forecast period with below normal temperatures. Height rises will commence while weak W to SW aloft becomes established ahead of a s/w that is expected to form to our west. Moisture will try and slip in next week. Models now show that happening Wednesday. We have reached the time of year when models will often bring in false dry line intrusion in days 5+, but that solution will disappear in later runs. We just have to make it through Saturday before nicer albeit warm weather arrives. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Wind will be the main story today and the subsequent blowing dust. Speeds will continue to increase throughout early this afternoon peaking with speeds of 20-30 knots and gusts of 40 or greater, mainly from 250-270, veering to 270-300 after sunset. These speeds will kick up dust with significant reductions in VIS likely, especially at DMN and ELP. VIS may drop as low as 1 mile. After dark, winds will gradually subside and dust will settle. Skies will be SKC-FEW250 throughout the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 FRIDAY...ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL...Winds subside for tomorrow, but will remain breezy, topping out in the 17 to 22 MPH range. Min RH values will also be a bit higher thanks to cooler temperatures. Nevertheless, the combination of wind and RH values will still be enough to create locally critical conditions. No fire headlines will be issued on this shift as it does not appear a large enough area in each zone will consistently meet criteria. SATURDAY...CRITICAL...Winds increase again for Saturday with speeds almost as high as today, topping out 25 to 30 MPH. Min RH values will drop into the lower and mid teens in the lowlands. Thus, a fire weather watch is in effect for zones 111, 112, and Texas 055 and 056. Portions of zone 111 will see a bit higher min RH values, but given RFTI wind values of 4, any over-forecasting of RH will lead to more widespread critical conditions. REST OF PERIOD...LOW TO ELEVATED...Warmer and drier conditions return Sunday and especially Monday onward. Min RH values will drop into the teens Sunday afternoon and single-digits Monday afterward. Wind is not expected to be a concern, however, as afternoon speeds top out 10 to 15 MPH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 56 82 57 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 49 77 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 49 80 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 45 77 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 33 53 34 47 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 47 77 48 68 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 41 67 41 60 / 0 0 0 10 Deming 45 78 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 44 77 46 68 / 0 0 0 10 West El Paso Metro 52 79 55 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 48 79 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 50 82 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 48 72 49 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 51 82 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 48 77 50 72 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 53 78 55 72 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 44 77 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 45 79 49 72 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 49 78 51 72 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 47 76 49 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 40 66 41 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 38 64 40 58 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 36 63 36 57 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 38 68 40 60 / 0 0 0 10 Hillsboro 41 74 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 42 75 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 36 67 37 59 / 0 0 10 10 Hurley 38 71 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 42 74 45 66 / 0 0 10 10 Mule Creek 41 69 42 61 / 0 0 10 10 Faywood 41 71 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 43 77 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 44 77 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 44 76 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 43 70 42 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056. Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418>424. Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418>424. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for TXZ055-056. NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113. Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ403-406>411-414- 417-426-428-429. Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ404-407- 411-417-427>429. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for NMZ111-112. High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ415-416-427. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown