FXUS64 KFWD 190010 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 710 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This Evening through Saturday Morning/ The cold front is currently located near a Bonham-Cleburne-Llano line and will steadily continue south/southeast over the course of this evening. Some convective development has been observed over the last couple hours, mainly across western Central Texas where large hail has been reported. The potential for scattered showers and storms along the front will continue through this evening as RAP analysis shows the front moving into an unstable airmass with 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 7-8 degC/km lapse rates. This parameter space will continue to promote strong to severe storms capable of hail and damaging winds. There continues to be a non-zero tornado threat with this activity, but low-level SRH is generally unfavorable enough to keep this threat on the lower side. The front will continue to move through the region, eventually exiting completely near daybreak Friday. The cold front will eventually stall across South Texas, leaving our area fully entrenched within the cooler post-frontal airmass. Cloud cover will stick around as mid- and low-level moisture will not be completely scoured out behind the boundary. The afternoon hours should remain relatively dry as a lack of lift should keep most precipitation from forming until the late evening and overnight hours. By this time, an upper level shortwave will move into the Central Plains and spread increased forcing for ascent overtop the cooler post-frontal airmass. Expect more widespread showers and storms to blossom across North and Central Texas during the early morning hours on Saturday. Sounding profiles show steep lapse rates and enough deep layer shear/MUCAPE to promote some stronger storms capable of small hail, but the overall severe threat is low at this time. Instances of heavy rain are also expected through Saturday morning as PWATs in excess of 1.5" will be widespread across North and Central Texas. Prater && .LONG TERM... /Issued 224 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024/ /Friday Night Through Next Thursday/ ...Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected Saturday with the potential for localized heavy rainfall and flooding concerns... Large scale forcing will increase across the Southern Plains this weekend as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. Height falls will start overspreading the state Friday night, inducing stronger warm and moist advection overtop the cool near-surface airmass left behind by today's cold front. The ascending air should first yield thickening cloud cover with a broad area of showers and thunderstorms developing overnight in response to the strengthening low level jet. NAM forecast soundings show the boundary layer will be strongly capped making surface-based convection unlikely Friday evening. Moderately strong elevated instability amid the ongoing isentropic ascent should still lead to a rapid increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms after midnight Saturday. The severe hail threat will be inhibited by the tall, skinny CAPE profiles (weaker parcel accelerations) in the forecast soundings. However, steep mid-level lapse rates and adequate deep layer shear should still support some instances of at least small hail Friday night into Saturday morning. The shortwave trough will eject across the region on Saturday as the front continues to slowly push towards the coast. Scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region with the area of greatest coverage shifting from North Texas and the Big Country (Saturday morning and afternoon) to Central and East Texas (Saturday evening/night). Though a few strong storms cannot be completely ruled out, widespread cloud cover and rain should limit heating/instability and the overall potential for severe weather. The main concern on Saturday will be localized heavy rainfall, especially in areas where the soils are still saturated from heavy rainfall over the past few weeks. Additionally, training storms and heavier convective rain rates may lead to flood issues including minor river flooding. Generally, 1-2.5 inches is expected though isolated higher amounts are possible. The higher totals are concentrated mostly near and east of the I-35 corridor. In the wake of the departing shortwave, rain chances will end Sunday morning from west to east as subsidence increases over the region. After a weekend of well-below normal temperatures (highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s/50s), temperature recovery will begin early next week as the surface high shifts east and south winds return amid mostly clear skies. Dry conditions should prevail through mid-week before a potential Alberta Clipper positions North and Central Texas beneath northwest flow ahead of a developing western CONUS upper trough. As expected, there is little model agreement beyond Day 7 (Wednesday) so this portions of the forecast is likely to change over the weekend. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ The cold front is currently between D10 and ACT, and will move south through the rest of tonight. Isolated showers and storms will continue to be possible along the front, with best impact timing at ACT between 02-04Z this evening. Behind the front, expect breezy northerly winds through the early morning. A blanket of MVFR stratus will build northward across the region overnight into tomorrow morning, though the exact northern extent is uncertain at this time. Have continued the MVFR as a TEMPO from 13-17Z in D10 to account for the lowered probabilities and the continued uncertainty. The stratus deck should scatter out by early-mid afternoon tomorrow, with VFR prevailing once again. Another round of stratus is expected just after the 30 hour mark, and will be included in future TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 56 71 58 65 50 / 20 5 80 90 90 Waco 59 74 62 70 51 / 40 5 50 80 100 Paris 54 69 53 59 48 / 40 20 80 90 80 Denton 52 69 54 62 47 / 10 5 80 90 90 McKinney 54 69 55 63 48 / 20 10 80 90 90 Dallas 57 72 58 64 51 / 20 5 80 90 90 Terrell 56 71 57 65 49 / 40 10 70 90 100 Corsicana 60 74 61 70 51 / 40 10 50 80 100 Temple 61 75 63 73 51 / 20 10 40 80 100 Mineral Wells 53 70 56 64 47 / 10 5 80 90 90 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$