FXUS64 KHGX 261756 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1256 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 The start of a more active pattern for SE TX looks to start today as the first in a series of longwave troughs moves quickly E across the Southern and Central Plains these next several days. There will be a potential for severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall with these systems, but probably not for today. Strong S/SE low-level winds are continuing to feed to warm/humid air mass over SE TX this morning and with the arrival/passage of a short wave (from the W/SW) late this morning, scattered activity should be on the rise across the Brazos Valley east to the Piney Woods through this afternoon. Progs then track a second short-wave across the CWA, with development further south, across the central/southern portions of the CWA during the late afternoon/early evening. These shortwaves along with daytime heating and slightly deeper moisture (PWs aoa 1.4 to 1.8 inches) will help to fuel showers/storms...but there is still a matter of the strong/persistent cap. And so, no major changes have been made with the SPC Outlook for today, with only the far northern reaches of the CWA in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thun- derstorms (generally from Bryan/College Station to Crockett). WPC is also keeping these same locations in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for today. Another surface low deepening around the Panhandles will help tighten the gradient once again tomorrow. This could lead to strong and gusty winds over much of the CWA on Sat. A Wind Advisory may be needed. And barring any other shortwaves sneaking in from the W/SW, Sat should be a bit quieter, but not completely POP-free. Lingering boundaries, day time heating and strong WAA could lead to some pop-up showers/isolat- ed storms through the day. As for temperatures, abundant clouds, rain chances will keep highs mainly in the lower 80s today...and perhaps a bit higher tomorrow in the mid 80s. Lows will be in the lower 70s. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Showers and storms will get reinvigorated across SE Texas on Sunday as the stalled boundary to the north pushes closer to our region. Meanwhile, an upper level low will be swinging through the Southern Plains providing better dynamics for thunderstorm development - though the best dynamics will be north of the region towards the Red River Valley. The showers and storms will begin as early as sunrise Sunday, but will be more likely Sunday afternoon into the evening hours with lingering showers possible into Sunday night. Areas closer to the stalled boundary will have the highest coverage of storms, which for right now is looking for areas generally north of Conroe. The vast majority of the storms will be weak, there may be an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm on Sunday. SPC includes this area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Sunday, and WPC has areas north of Huntsville in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) with areas down to around I-10 in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall due to locally heavy rainfall combined with saturated soils. The upper level low that helped develop the storms on Sunday will continue on east by Monday, but the boundary will remain stalled out near SE Texas through the majority of next week. This will lead partly to mostly cloudy skies and daily rain chances. Temperatures will remain on the warm side through the long term as will with high temperatures in the mid 80s and low temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Afternoon max heat indicies will be in the low to mid 90s through midweek next week as well. Fowler && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 CIGS should continue to scatter & lift this afternoon, with most locations expected to reach VFR levels. MVFR CIGS may linger in areas south of the I-10 corridor this afternoon. Isolated showers could develop in these areas too, through one or two isolated stronger storms cannot be completely ruled out. Isolated showers will also be possible further north (near KCLL and KUTS) as well, with a higher possibility of stronger thunderstorms for these locations. Southeasterly winds of 10-20 knots with gusts of 25-35 knots will be possible throughout the day, relaxing slightly this evening as MVFR CIGS fill back in from the coastline. MVFR conditions persist overnight into Saturday morning, with CIGS improving heading into the afternoon. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Moderate to strong onshore winds and elevated seas will continue through the weekend. While there will be a brief lull in the winds this afternoon to around 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt, the winds will pick back up this evening to around 20 to 30kt with gusts to 35kt possible through Sunday morning. The Small Craft Advisory for the Gulf Waters has been extended through Sunday morning. Small Craft should exercise caution today in the Bays, with the Bays being added into the SCA this evening and continues through Sunday morning as well. Bay waters will be very choppy to rough this weekend with seas in the Gulf Waters up to around 8-11ft. The strong, persistent onshore flow will result in a high risk of strong rip currents and elevated tides through the weekend. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday into Monday as an upper level low swings through the region. While the onshore flow will persist through next week, conditions will gradually improve late Sunday through Monday. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 83 72 84 72 / 40 20 10 20 Houston (IAH) 84 74 84 73 / 20 30 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 79 73 79 73 / 20 30 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....Fowler AVIATION...03 MARINE...Fowler