FXUS64 KLUB 110713 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 213 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Increasing southeasterly surface flow bringing in Gulf moisture combined with a relatively deep upper trough will lead to widespread showers across the forecast area today. Precipitation is expected to begin across the western South Plains early this morning and spread to the north and east through the remainder of the day. PoPs have generally remained unchanged from the previous forecast. Total amounts of around 0.25" to 0.50" are still predicted, with localized higher amounts possible in thunderstorms, although storm coverage looks to be scattered at best and no severe weather is expected at this time. High temperatures have been lowered from the NBM to closer to deterministic model averages and may struggle to reach much above 60 in some locations given the persistent rain/cloud cover. A brief lull in shower activity should occur later this evening, however overcast and drizzly conditions will continue into the overnight hours. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 The upper level low will be moving across Colorado early in the day on Sunday emerging from the Rockies late morning and afternoon. Precipitation activity is expected to increase after sunrise as large scale lift increases ahead of this system. Height falls aloft will increase after sunrise along with the FA being positioned near the entrance region of an upper level jet streak. Large scale ascent will peak in the morning with subsidence beginning to swing overhead in the afternoon. Some timing differences continue to exist in model solutions on the timing of the lift but areas off the caprock would be most favored for precipitation through the afternoon and early evening on Sunday. The ascent created from the upper trough would be complemented by strong moist isentropic ascent especially in the morning through early afternoon. At lower levels of the atmosphere, a surface low will develop in eastern New Mexico moving into West Texas in the afternoon in response to the approaching upper level trough. As this occurs, a dryline will develop and mix across the South Plains in the afternoon. There is a good mix of solutions on where this dryline will end up settling but dry westerly winds on the caprock seem likely at this point. Expected showers and thunderstorms during the morning will complicate the afternoon forecast for areas off the caprock where greatest chances for storms will exist. Surface temperatures may stay fairly cool during the afternoon which would keep the Rolling Plains capped from the surface. Elevated convection would still be possible and with fairly strong deep layer shear, could lead to some organized cells. A cold front will follow Sunday evening into Monday morning as the upper trough slowly moves across Kansas. Most of the area will remain in subsident air in the wake of the departing trough but lift will exist on the back side of the upper low but may mostly remain north and east of the FA. Short wave ridging aloft will move overhead on Tuesday resulting in a rapid rise in temperatures but will move off east of the area on Wednesday as the next upper level shortwave approaches the region. A subtropical jet will be nosing into Far West Texas and Permian Basin on Wednesday afternoon greatly boosting lift overhead. The surface pattern is quite nebulous at the moment in model data. But return flow will begin as early as Tuesday ahead of this trough advecting low level moisture into the area. Analog guidance is highlighting West Texas for severe weather potential on Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Light winds and VFR conditions will persist through mid-morning. Showers will begin thereafter, beginning at KLBB and KPVW before moving north and east over KCDS. MVFR CIGs are expected from mid-afternoon onwards at KLBB and KPVW. Confidence was not high enough to prevail MVFR at KCDS, however periods of lower CIGs are certainly possible there as well. Embedded thuderstorms are possible at all sites, although limited coverage did not merit their mention in the TAFs. Drizzly MVFR will continue into the evening. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...19