FXUS64 KMOB 240501 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1201 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 VFR conditions will persist through the period outside of patchy late night fog reducing visibility in low-lying and fog-prone areas for a brief time. Light and variable overnight become southeast to south 5 to 10 knots on Wednesday afternoon. /22 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ .New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Northwesterly flow aloft will continue across the region tonight and Wednesday as a weak shortwave trough aloft moves east across the region. At the surface, high pressure centered over the southeastern CONUS early this evening will shift to just off the southeast East Coast by late Wednesday, but continue to ridge back west across our area. Associated low level light onshore return flow will gradually begin to increase moisture across the area, with PWATS just over 0.50 inches this evening climbing to just over 1.00 inch by the end of the day Wednesday. Overall though, the the deep layer air column remains fairly dry through Wednesday, with a possible saturated layer between 850-700MB. With this will likely be looking at increased mid-level clouds across the region on Wednesday, and possibly a sprinkle or two up along the Highway 84 corridor. The likelihood of any rain for now though it too low to carry any PoPs for Wednesday. There could be some very patchy light fog development in a few spots late tonight/early Wednesday morning, but confidence in occurrence and the anticipated very patchy/limited nature of fog development precluded any mention in the forecast. A little warmer tonight with min temps primarily in the low 50s over all interior locations north of I-10, but upper 50s to lower 60s closer to and along the coast. Highs on Wednesday rebounding mainly into the lower 80s for most locations, but remaining in the upper 70s for some locations, especially along the coast. DS/12 LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Northwest flow aloft remains across the forecast area Wednesday night through Thursday night before upper level ridging pushes across the area. This will transition us to a more westerly and eventually southwest flow aloft as we head into the weekend and early next week. The forecast area remains predominately dry as any appreciable shortwaves pass well to the north of the gulf coast through the weekend. A sharper, deeper trough may try to impinge on the area Monday into Tuesday which may result in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week. Temperatures remain seasonable in the lower to middle 80's for highs each afternoon and lows in the lower to middle 60's each morning. Beach Note: Rip current risk increases to MODERATE on Friday with a HIGH RISK expected by Saturday as onshore flow continues to increase at the beaches. RCMOS probabilities indicate a high likelihood of the risk remaining HIGH through at least Sunday at all local beaches. MM/25 07/mb MARINE... Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 No marine impacts anticipated through the week. Onshore flow is forecast to strengthen with a gradual build in seas late Friday and into the weekend. /21 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 55 82 59 84 61 82 66 82 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 60 78 61 81 64 79 68 79 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 Destin 62 77 64 79 66 78 68 79 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 50 82 56 84 58 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 50 82 56 85 59 85 63 85 / 0 10 0 10 0 0 0 0 Camden 50 79 57 82 58 84 61 84 / 0 10 0 10 0 0 0 0 Crestview 50 83 56 86 57 84 61 83 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob