FXUS64 KMRX 232345
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
745 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Key Messages:

1. The higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains will see
gusts up to 30 or 35 mph late this afternoon through tomorrow 
morning.

2. A weak cold front will bring increasing chances of rain 
late tonight through Wednesday morning. Only light rain is 
expected before becoming mostly dry for Wednesday afternoon.

Discussion:

Breezy southwesterly winds will subside around sunset. The higher
elevations of the East Tennessee mountains will see gusts up to 30
or 35 mph late this afternoon through tomorrow morning when the 
front moves through.

In the upper levels, a trough is over the Eastern U.S. and a 
ridge is over the Rockies. At the surface, a weak cold front will 
move through the region tomorrow morning. Rain chances increase 
late tonight through the morning hours as the front approaches. 
The front is decaying as it moves through the region, so the best 
rain chances are north of I-40. Rain will be light and QPF is low, 
under a quarter of an inch. Light rain and clouds will move out of
the region in the late morning/early afternoon hours. With 
afternoon sunshine, highs will get into the lower 70s for most of 
the Tennessee Valley tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Key Messages:

1. Mostly dry and warm conditions forecasted into the weekend.

2. A chance of showers and thunderstorms return early next week. 

Discussion:

Generally quiet weather can be expected for several days as we sit 
under upper level and surface level ridging into the weekend. This 
will keep most of the synoptic level forcing and associated 
precipitation well off to our west, and mainly dry and sunny 
conditions for most of the forecast.

Friday could see a quick round of showers as a strengthening low 
level jet moves into the region helping to create an area of 
isentropic lift as a weak boundary moves through the region. This 
feature is expected to be pretty weak and models are struggling to 
resolve how much coverage of showers we can expect. However most 
models are in good agreement that whatever occurs would be generally 
light to moderate showers during the daytime on Friday. Will 
continue with the lower end precipitation chances for the end of the 
work week.

Ridging restrengthens over the weekend leading to fairly mild 
temperatures. The synoptic pattern looks like it will finally 
undergo a change early next week as a front moves through the 
OHio/Tennessee Valleys driven by a low lifting out through the 
northern plains and Great Lakes region. This system looks to bring 
along with it a more unstable atmosphere and we should see the 
return of thunderstorms to the region Monday and/or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Overnight, VFR conditions will continue with the main impact being
LLWS at CHA and TRI. Low-level winds will still be strong over
TYS, but winds at the surface will remain stronger than at the
other sites. By the early morning hours, rain is expected to
arrive from the north, especially at TRI and TYS. Reductions to
MVFR are possible but were left out of the TAFs. Rain is also
possible at CHA but was left out of the TAF as well due to
lessened coverage. Conditions will improve by the afternoon with a
more northerly shift in winds. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             53  76  50  78 /  10  10   0  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  54  72  47  75 /  20  20   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       52  74  47  76 /  30  30   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              49  68  42  71 /  40  30   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McD
AVIATION...BW