FXUS64 KOHX 230732 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 232 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 As of 2 am CDT...skies across Middle Tennessee are mostly clear to partly cloudy as a band of high clouds moves through. Temperatures at this hour are primarily in the 40s though a few readings have dipped into the upper 30s towards the Cumberland Plateau. Winds are light across the region. At the surface, high pressure extended from the Gulf Coast, across the Southeastern US, and up the East Coast. A cold front was located from Wisconsin to Iowa and Nebraska, and it is this front that will slide southeast and bring us a chance for precipitation Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Aloft, zonal flow was located overhead while a shortwave trough was observed over the northern Plains, moving southeast and forcing the front towards Middle Tennessee. For today, the main story will be warmer temperatures, dry conditions, and gusty winds. Afternoon highs should climb into the 70s areawide. Moisture return is expected later today, as in more like this evening as moisture along the incoming cold front moves in from the northwest. This afternoon however, dewpoints should stay in the 30s and low 40s, which will lead to minimum relative humidity readings in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Combined with winds gusting to 25, maybe 30 mph, there will be elevated fire weather conditions across Middle Tennessee. As the front approaches tonight, a broken band of precipitation should form and move into the area. While there could be a few rumbles of thunder with MUCAPE of 100-200 j/kg possible at most, more than likely all that will be observed is showers. No severe weather should be anticipated due to the lack of instability. In addition, the main forcing from the upper level disturbance will be moving across the Great Lakes, resulting in limited lift and thus the likelihood of scattered/a broken band of showers occuring versus a more widespread precipitation event along this front. Winds will weaken prior to the front arrival, and then remain weak yet shift to the north once the front has passed. With cloud cover in the region, low temperatures will remain much warmer than recent nights, only dropping into the low to mid 50s. For Wednesday, the only main change compared to Tuesday's predicted weather will be a noticeable drop in wind speeds. Temperatures should be about the same despite the passage of a weak cold front. Some forecast guidance indicates a few showers into the day, mainly along the Cumberland Plateau. However, with most of the forcing having passed through the region already, am not certain we will observe much in the way of precipitation lingering after the front. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 In the long-term, the pattern looks to be a little more active with a few chances for precipitation. In addition, temperatures look to be quite warm with 80s possible/likely across large portions of the area beginning as soon as Friday. The first chance for precipitation will come with the arrival of a warm front Thursday night into Friday night. The warm front should spread across the region from southwest to northeast. Lift increases with the front, as well as the left front quadrant of a split jet overhead. CAPE overall is not too impressive, with the mean values around to less than 500 j/kg for most guidance. These values are good enough for storms, but not severe weather potential so for now, expecting general thunder. Heading into the weekend, a ridge of high pressure should build over the southeastern US, with a deepening trough of low pressure to the west over the Great Plains. The ridge of high pressure should shield Middle Tennessee from most precipitation/convective activity this weekend, keeping it more across Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Arkansas. That being said, can't rule out potential for a few showers or storms but with this forecast run, that's looking less likely. The time to watch for thunderstorms will be Sunday night into Monday night. This is when a front will finally be able to approach from the west, and a larger band of precipitation should be anticipated. With several days of warm weather prior to this front, you would think the projected CAPE readings would be a little higher but that's just not the case once again. Current LREF probabilities indicate CAPE averaging a max of 500 j/kg Monday afternoon, which isn't terribly impressive. Therefore, once again, it currently seems like we're looking at thunderstorms but the threat for severe weather currently looks low unless things change with the instability forecast. Wind shear parameters do increase with this system, but the best shear seems to remain west/northwest of Middle Tennessee. Outside of the potential rounds of thunderstorms, no hazardous weather should be anticipated during this long-term period. Enjoy the Spring warmth. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 VFR conditions anticipated over the next 24 hours. Primary aviation concern will be some gusty winds that develop Tuesday morning, persisting throughout the day across Middle Tennessee and impacting all TAF sites. For Tuesday evening, a cold front will approach the region and bring a chance for some precipitation. However, for now, only mentioned precip at KCKV as most of the precip should hold off until after 06z. One other thing to note...a low level jet ahead of the front may produce some LLWS at KCSV and KSRB late tomorrow evening. Didn't have the confidence to put that in the TAF at this time, but something to watch. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 76 57 75 49 / 0 50 10 0 Clarksville 74 54 72 46 / 10 50 10 0 Crossville 70 51 68 44 / 0 40 30 0 Columbia 74 55 75 47 / 0 30 10 10 Cookeville 70 52 70 45 / 0 60 20 0 Jamestown 71 51 68 43 / 0 60 20 0 Lawrenceburg 74 54 74 48 / 0 30 10 10 Murfreesboro 75 54 75 46 / 0 40 20 0 Waverly 74 54 73 49 / 0 40 10 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Husted LONG TERM....Husted AVIATION.....Husted