FXUS64 KSHV 032332 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 632 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Convection that originated across Oklahoma and North Texas late yesterday has finally departed the area as a shortwave trough lifts northeast towards the Tennessee River Valley. Farther southwest, another weak perturbation in the southwesterly flow aloft has helped to sustained showers and thunderstorms along a remnant outflow boundary across Southeast Texas and South Louisiana. Radar trends over the last couple of hours continue to show redevelopment along the northwest flank of this line in Central Texas. So far, this activity has been quickly weakening with eastward extent as it nears our Deep East Texas counties, mostly likely encountering a more stable airmass. Current thinking is the heaviest precip should remain south and southwest of the area and should dissipate by sunset with the loss of diurnal heating and weakening of large scale forcing. The latest CAMs suggest a few isolated to widely scattered showers are possible this evening and tonight, mainly north of Interstate 20, but only slight chance PoPs were kept in the forecast. Overnight, another complex of showers and thunderstorms is expected to form ahead of a cold front across Kansas and Oklahoma, which should dive southeast towards the CWA. This complex should be weakening as it moves into southeast Oklahoma around daybreak Saturday. However, renewed development and intensification is expected, especially during peak daytime heating in the afternoon. Based on the latest CAMs and short- range ensembles, current thinking coverage will mainly be scattered but will likely coverage much of the area. Given the expected coverage, I felt the NBM PoPs were too way and much of the short-term rain chances were trended toward the HREF. There should be enough instability and deep layer shear to support a marginal risk for large hail and damaging winds, especially during Saturday afternoon through early evening. Initial development in the afternoon may begin as far north as I-30 before spreading southeast across the region. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, another complex of strong to severe storms will develop along the dryline in West Texas and may begin to affect the area early Sunday morning. CN && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Robust convection will likely be ongoing across the area near or shortly after sunrise Sunday morning. While the cold front is once again expected to stall in our northern zones before retreating back to the north again, a potent shortwave trough moving across Texas and Oklahoma should help sustain strong thunderstorms for much of the day Sunday. A few isolated severe storms will be possible, mainly posing a risk for damaging winds. Rain chances should diminish during the evening as the shortwave lifts northeast and forcing weakens. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially in Deep East Texas south of I-20. However, current thinking is that the threat for flooding will remain isolated and localized, and it will have been a few days between rain events. However, if QPF amounts increase in future forecasts, a Flood Watch may need to be issued. Unsettled weather will remain in the forecast into next week with near daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially north of I-20 as deep southerly flow persists across the region. A longwave trough will move northeast across the Central and Northern Plains pushing a cold front closer to the region. This should bring a chance for more strong, possibly, severe thunderstorms to parts of the area next Tuesday and Wednesday. The extent of the severe weather threat is still highly uncertain, but the best chances appear to be north of I-20, and especially across Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas. Another growing concern will be the unseasonable heat. Strong southerly flow and warm air advection will result in rising temperatures despite the persistent rain chances in the forecast. From Tuesday through Thursday, there is a high chance (60 to 80 percent chance) of daytime high temperatures of 90 degrees F or greater across much of Louisiana and into portions of Southwest Arkansas and Deep East Texas. Combined with the high humidity, peak heat index values should be near or above 100 degrees F. Cooler temperatures may return by the end of the week. CN && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Clear skies will begin to fill back in once the sun sets, with IFR and LIFR CIGS anticipated across most terminals by 04/08z. Patchy fog will also be possible into the morning as winds decouple, with reduced VIS anticipated at KMLU and KELD. However, skies will clear out past 04/18z back into VFR conditions under peak afternoon heating. /44/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 67 85 68 79 / 20 50 40 80 MLU 64 86 67 80 / 20 40 30 60 DEQ 64 82 65 75 / 20 40 50 90 TXK 66 84 66 78 / 20 40 40 80 ELD 63 84 65 79 / 20 50 30 70 TYR 68 82 66 78 / 10 40 60 80 GGG 67 83 67 78 / 10 50 50 80 LFK 67 84 68 80 / 10 40 40 80 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...44