FXUS64 KSJT 131730 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1230 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Lows stratus has developed over West Central Texas, except for Crockett county. Visibilities have fallen to 1/2 mile or less at times over much of the CWA south of I-20, and have issued a dense fog for that area through 8 AM. With cloud heights of 2-3 hundred feet, be especially careful in the hills south of Sweetwater and Abilene. A Pacific front will move through from north to south this morning, with northwest winds of 5 to 15 mph, bringing in drier air, and dissipating the stratus mid morning through noon. An isolated shower is possible in Haskell and Throckmorton counties early morning as the front moves through. Full sun the rest of day will allow temperatures to rise to highs ranging from the lower 80s in the Big Country...to upper 80s to 90 degrees from the Concho Valley southward to I-10 to Ozona, Sonora and Junction. Winds become light overnight. With clear skies, low temperatures will fall into the mid and upper 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 453 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Quiet weather should continue through Tuesday as a shortwave ridge builds in over the Southern Plains. High temperatures should reach the upper 80s to low 90s. The next weather system that looks to impact west central Texas will be late Wednesday through Thursday. At the mid-levels a trough of low pressure will move into the southern Plains on Wednesday. Models show strong and moist southerly flow ahead of this system developing by Wednesday evening with PWATS at or above 1.5 inches. This could result in areas of heavy rain and potential flooding Wednesday night through Thursday. For now, WPC has highlighted most of our county warning area with a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Wednesday and Thursday. Models show a cold front moving into the area on Thursday, which should provide more lift for more widespread heavy rain. An upper-level trough axis should push through the region on Friday and bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Skies should clear out for next weekend as upper-level ridging will build in behind the cold front. The pattern suggests that above- normal temperatures in the low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Winds will be slightly gusty this afternoon, with gusts around 20 kts possible. Thunderstorms could approach KJCT and KBBD from the south this afternoon, but they will likely remain too far south/southeast to impact the airports. Winds will become light and variable overnight as they start to turn back to the south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 57 88 68 91 / 0 0 0 10 San Angelo 57 95 68 93 / 0 0 0 10 Junction 59 94 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 57 87 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 58 90 68 91 / 0 0 0 10 Ozona 58 92 66 90 / 0 0 0 10 Brady 58 88 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...AP