FXUS64 KTSA 071121 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 621 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Ongoing early morning storms will spread east of the forecast area near or soon after sunrise. The remainder of the day will be quiet as weak sfc high pressure settles over the area. Rapid and substantial moisture return commences overnight as flow responds to the next approaching wave. The trend in placement for any early morning storms has been more north of the local forecast area. This will be monitored as any early day convection could quickly become severe, however the trend in guidance has been more northward. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 The strengthening warm frontal zone and deepening sfc low will be near NE OK / NW AR early Wednesday and mark a zone of increasing lift within a strongly unstable and weakly capped airmass. The result will be early storm initiation in or near the forecast area with a quick transition toward a severe weather threat. Storms will expand eastward and southward along the advancing cold front through Wednesday afternoon and evening with severe potential increasing for areas southeast of Interstate 44. The veered low level flow and advancing cold front may focus the higher tornado threat further east of the local region, however big CAPE can do big things and all hazards will be possible with large hail and locally damaging winds the more apparent threats at this time. Additionally, another round of locally heavy rainfall will again raise flooding concerns. And then a break from the recent active pattern. Flow aloft become more northwesterly and sfc high pressure builds into the southern Plains Friday into Saturday. Dry and mild weather conditions are expected for several days. Thunderstorm chances return late in the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Brief period of MVFR vsbys/IFR cigs at KRVS early in the TAF period with VFR elements expected to prevail after 14z. Will also include a tempo from 12z-14z for MVFR cigs across the AR sites. VFR elements expected to prevail after 14z for the remainder of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 83 62 83 55 / 10 10 20 0 FSM 86 64 87 60 / 10 10 40 30 MLC 86 66 86 59 / 10 10 20 20 BVO 83 56 81 49 / 10 10 10 0 FYV 83 60 82 54 / 10 10 60 20 BYV 82 59 82 53 / 10 10 60 20 MKO 83 61 83 55 / 10 10 30 10 MIO 81 59 80 51 / 10 10 50 10 F10 83 62 85 55 / 10 10 20 10 HHW 86 66 85 62 / 10 10 20 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...23