FXUS65 KFGZ 251540 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 840 AM MST Thu Apr 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Look for cooler and unsettled conditions for the second half of the week as a pair of weather disturbances move across Arizona. Chances for showers arrive today and again by late Friday and into Saturday. Fair weather is expected to return on Sunday through early next week. && .UPDATE...Showers and thunderstorms have moved into Yavapai County this morning, with Prescott Airport picking up around 0.20" so far. This area of showers and storms is pushing toward the north- northeast and has reached I-40 from Williams westward as of 830 AM. Showers and storms are likely later this morning and afternoon over much of Coconino County including Flagstaff and the Grand Canyon, with a 30-40% chance farther east across northern Navajo & Apache counties. Heavier storms will produce small hail and frequent lightning. Minor updates to raise precip chances today were sent a short time ago. && .PREV DISCUSSION /342 AM MST/...The first low pressure system will arrive today. There will be decent dynamic lift with this first low with just enough moisture for saturation and good chance for showers. The main show will be later this morning through the afternoon focusing from the western Mogollon Rim northeastward to the Four Corners. The air mass will be unstable so there will be thunderstorms around the area, especially this afternoon with daytime heating. Liquid precipitation amounts generally 0.15 inches or less. The low will be of the more mild spring variety so the snow level will remain mainly above 8000 feet with only an inch or two of accumulation over the very highest mountain peaks. Most locations will see gusty winds from the south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph. However, from about Heber eastward, where the surface pressure gradient will be stronger, afternoon gusts in excess of 45 mph are likely at times. the Associated with the passing low daytime temperatures will be cooler. Overnight...The first low will exit the state. Showers will linger over east and northeast portions into the evening before the main dynamics for lift moves into New Mexico. Friday and Saturday...The next low approaches then moves across the area. Much of the day Friday will see windy, cool and partly cloudy weather as the next low approaches. Late in the afternoon the first chance of showers will enter northwest Arizona with arrival of the next round of upward lift then spread across the area Friday night. Moisture will be more plentiful with the second low so precipitation is expected to be more widespread. Look for a showery day on Saturday with a good chance of hearing some thunder as the air mass will once again be unstable, especially as daytime heating progresses. Another round of gusty southwest to west winds at 10 to 20 mph gusting to around 40 mph in spots. The snow level could dip as low as 7000 feet but once again any snow accumulation will be reserved for the highest mountain peaks. From Sunday onward...A mild and dry west to northwest flow returns. Mainly clear skies and warmer daytime temperatures appear nearly certain with the usual round of gusty afternoon southwest winds each day. && .AVIATION...Thursday 25/12Z through Friday 26/12Z...MVFR cigs and vis possible in SHRA/TSRA, 15Z-03Z. SW winds 10-20 kts, gusting 20-30 kts before 03Z, then subsiding to 5-15 kts overnight. OUTLOOK...Friday 26/12Z through Sunday 28/12Z...VFR conditions before 12Z Friday, then MVFR conditions possible in SHRA/TSRA liekly through 00Z Sunday. Brief periods of IFR possible in SN/RA mix for sites above 6500-7000 feet MSL. VFR conditions returning thereafter. Winds SW 15-25 kts on Friday, becoming W 10-20 kts on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Turning cooler. Isolated light showers and thunderstorms develop late this morning and continue through the day. More widespread activity then sets in late Friday afternoon and evening. Southwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts 25-35 mph for today, increasing to 20-30 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Friday. Saturday through Monday...Scattered showers, with high-elevation snow at times, and thunderstorms for Saturday, along with westerly winds 15-25 mph. Warmer, drier conditions return Sunday and Monday, with west winds 10-20 mph on Sunday and shifting to the southwest on Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ013- 014. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ/McCollum AVIATION...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff