FXUS65 KPUB 241947 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 147 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds gusting up to 50 mph combined with hot and very dry conditions will produce high fire danger for portions of the area Thursday afternoon. - There is a low risk of strong to severe storms across the far eastern plains Thursday. - Spotty critical fire weather concerns continue into Friday for portions of our plains, with rain and snow chances expected elsewhere across the forecast area. - Cooler and wetter weather likely for this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 143 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Currently...Upper ridge axis was slowly moving east across CO and into the central plains today, while the next incoming low pressure system to affect the region was located just off the CA coast. Plenty of sun across the forecast area today, and while southerly surface winds have kept the humidity somewhat elevated across the plains, higher gusts and more dry air have produced critical fire weather conditions once again for the San Luis Valley this afternoon. Temps have warmed into the 60s to around 70F for the high valleys, and mid 60s to mid 70s for the plains, as of 2 PM. Tonight...Ongoing Red Flag Warning for the San Luis Valley will expire at 8 Pm, as winds slightly decrease and temps start to cool. The upper low is forecast to push onshore across southern CA and into southern NV tonight. This will increase the southerly feed of more mild and moist air into the eastern plains of CO, so could not discount the isolated chance of some convection in KS spilling back across the border into CO. Therefore, kept isolated pops along the eastern border late tonight with enhanced cloud cover, while the rest of the forecast area clears out. Plan on overnight lows in the 30s to around 40F for the high valleys, and in the 40s for the plains. One thing to note: the overnight RH recoveries across the Sangres and the Wets tonight are forecast to be fairly poor, which may set the stage for Thu. Tomorrow...The upper low crosses the Four Corners through midday, then passes overhead through the late afternoon. The upper jet with a 110 kt core will carve out the southern end of the trough, with the leading edge crossing the far southeast corner of the state. This path brings a wide variety of weather to the region through the day, starting off with increasing cloudiness and shower activity along the Continental Divide by around 11 AM. Precipitation and convective activity will spread across the remaining higher terrain and then adjacent plains through the afternoon, with the focus on the mts and the Palmer Divide. The higher terrain of the Continental Divide may receive up to 2 inches of new snow by the evening. Meanwhile, strong southwest winds with gusts up to around 50 mph will develop across the eastern plains. These strong gusts, coupled with highs in the 70s and 80s with minimum RH levels right around 10 percent, will produce critical fire weather conditions across all of the eastern plains. Existing Red Flag Warning looks reasonable, and the excluded areas from the warning are due to the latest fuels information stating that those fuels are not receptive to carrying fire. Finally, there is a low chance of some strong to even severe storms right along the eastern border of CO. At this time, high res models are indicating that the stronger storms will occur in KS, but there is sufficient shear across the eastern plains that if any storms do develop, they definitely could become strong in a hurry. Stay tuned for the severe potential through tomorrow morning as things may change and get fine-tuned. High temps tomorrow are forecast to climb into the 60s to near 70F for the high valleys, and mid 70s to mid 80s for the plains. Moore && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 143 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Thursday Night and Friday.. Models place the surface low northeast of Kiowa County by Thursday evening, leaving most of our plains in dry southwesterly flow through the early evening hours. Very light snow showers over the Continental Divide will begin to come an end through Thursday evening, with ongoing chances for wrap around showers and weak thunderstorms across our eastern mountains, the Pikes Peak region, and our plains, mainly north of highway 50. Though precip chances sort of persist through the overnight hours into our Friday, we will see a lull through the morning hours. As we get into the late morning and early afternoon, showers and thunderstorms redevelop over the high country and begin to spread into the I-25 corridor. Depending on timing of any showers that develop, we could see a few hours of spotty critical fire weather conditions over portions of the plains as well, especially along and south of highway 50. Daytime highs will be around 5 degrees cooler for Friday than tomorrow, with temperatures climbing into the upper 60s to upper 70s for most of the plains, 60s for mountain valleys, and 40s and 50s for higher terrain locations. Winds remain gusty, though less strong than Thursday for most locations. The San Luis Valley will likely see gusts to 40 mph, with gusts closer to 30 mph expected over most of our plains. Saturday and Sunday... Models bring another upper low towards the Four Corners region Friday night into Saturday, which will help to keep precip chances ongoing through the overnight hours and throughout Saturday itself. Though there is still some disagreement about its overall progression, the general consensus seems to close it off and bring it right over us throughout the day on Saturday. This will bode for our precip chances, and storm total QPF shows anywhere from around 0.10 to 0.85 for most plains and mountain valley locations, with highest amounts over Teller and El Paso counties. WPC has outlined both Teller and El Paso for a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, which seems possible given steepening lapse rates and strong ascent over the area. Snow totals over the Continental Divide look to push into the 6 to 10 inch range, with higher amounts possible for some areas, which could end up warranting some Winter Weather highlights this weekend as wall. Embedded thunderstorm activity will further increase precip totals across portions of the plains as well. Severe storms do not look likely on Saturday, but lapse rates look supportive of a few stronger storms. Shower and thunderstorm chances linger into Sunday, though they will decrease in coverage and intensity. Daytime highs look to top out in the 60s both days. Monday Onwards.. Mostly zonal flow aloft takes over for the first half our work week, as a series of lows traverses the northern Rockies. This will mean near normal temperatures and quiet weather for Monday, with above normal temperatures and the possible return of critical fire weather for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 143 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 VFR conditions expected across the forecast area over the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Isolated convection will be possible along the eastern border late tonight between 04z-08z. Isolated convection, strong to possibly severe, will be possible along the eastern border after 21z. KCOS and KPUB: S-SE gusts up to 25 kts will be possible across the eastern plains through 03z. Strong SW winds redeveloping after 18z with gusts up to 30-40 kts, and up to 45 kts over the southeast corner of the state. KALS: SW gusts up to 30 kts will be possible across the San Luis Valley, including KALS, through 03z. Strong SW winds redeveloping after 18z with gusts up to 35-40 kts. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ224. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ224- 225-232-233-237. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...MOORE