FXUS65 KRIW 081048 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 448 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers continue to spread across the state, gradually moving in from the north to the south. - Precipitation will become widespread by the early afternoon with mountain snow and rain elsewhere. - A brief transition over to snow is possible Thursday morning in low elevation areas. However, impacts from this will be minimal to non existent for most. - Quiet and mild weather make a return to the Cowboy State for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024 Winds have continued to howl through the overnight hours here at the office with periodic gusts of 40 to 50 mph. Thankfully, the winds finally do look to diminish during the day today. Winds will be breezy today, however much weaker than they have been compared to the past few days. The pesky Pacific low begins to trek back to the southwest. The weather over the next 48 hours will be the reversal of Sunday and Monday. Showers will spread across the state from the north to the south, dominant flow will be from the N/NE, and areas that saw little precip likely see some. Basically if you did not see much in terms of precipitation when the low tracked northeast across the state, you will likely see something as it tracks back southwest. Overall, the impacts on the CWA from this one system will end up being perfectly balanced, as all weather systems should be. As mentioned earlier the Pacific low and its unorganized remnants will move back across the state over the next 48 hours. Showers will continue to develop across the state from the north to south and gradually become widespread during the morning. Winds are expected to decrease compared to the past few days but still remain breezy across most of the state. Flow will begin to shift today with winds becoming north/northeasterly by the afternoon. Areas that favor such flow like the eastern slopes of the Wind River Range, Absarokas, Casper Mountain and Bighorns have seen winter highlights issued. The Bighorns have a Winter Storm Warning in effect due to additional snow accumulation of 8-16 inches by Thursday morning. Other areas such as the Absarokas, eastern Wind River Range, and Casper Mountain have been issued Winter Weather Advisories. Snow accumulation looks to range from 8 to 14 inches with the highest peaks seeing amounts greater than 16 inches. Due to the longer duration and elevation dependency of the snowfall, warnings were not issued even though snowfall amounts may reach criteria. Lower elevation valleys/basins will see some cooler air get funneled in due to northerly flow. This flow shift will help usher in some cooler air, with 700 mb temperatures ranging between 4-6 C for Thursday morning. Tuesday morning the possibility of snow was mentioned in some low elevation areas. Unfortunately for any snow lovers hoping for some late season flakes, temperatures will not be on your side. Models have continued to keep low temperatures Thursday morning 3-5 degrees above freezing. This will likely make a transition over to snow difficult. However, if all things line up with the heaviest precipitation falling during Thursday morning and enough cooler taking place there still is a chance. Currently the chances for central basins are slim, with a (10-30%) of seeing snow in places like Lander Thursday morning. The better odds will be across Sweetwater and Sublette Counties where there is a (20-50%) chance of seeing 0.1 inches of snow accumulation. Showers will continue across low elevations during the morning and afternoon Thursday with most if not all places seeing rain. Precipitation begins to wind down Thursday evening, with a few lingering showers going into early Friday morning. End of the week... An area of weak ridging begins to move into the region Friday. Quieter and milder weather will return by the weekend with highs returning to normal or above normal values. Winds will become light and variable which will be a welcomed change for many. Chances for precipitation look to possibly return for the start of next week, mainly in the form of convective showers. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 444 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024 MVFR ceilings and visibility at JAC and PNA with light snow on station for the next couple of hours. All other sites VFR currently expected until later in the period. On and off scattered light rain east of the Divide and snow to the west through the afternoon and evening before becoming all snow after 06Z with the last wave. MVFR ceilings and visibility expected at all TAF sites with possible IFR to LIFR at RKS, LND, WRL, and CPR IAW BURKIT soundings hinting at these higher probability outcomes. This will be after 06Z along with gusty winds 15-30kts diminishing to less than 10-15kts through the end of the period and into the next TAF cycle. Improving conditions after 12Z and throughout Thursday as high pressure begins to build in from the west later in the day. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for WYZ001. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM MDT Thursday for WYZ002. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Thursday for WYZ008-009. Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT today for WYZ012. Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 9 AM MDT Thursday for WYZ015. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM MDT Thursday for WYZ022. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski AVIATION...Lowe