FXUS65 KTFX 192101 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 301 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... After one more widespread hard freeze tonight and Saturday morning, a warming trend begins this weekend, with above average temperatures returning early next week. A passing weather systems will bring windy conditions Sunday and Monday, but little in the way of precipitation is expected until the second half of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Current satellite/radar imagery depicts lower level clouds and areas of light snow/flurries over the plains and scattered mountain cloudiness over the higher terrain of the southwest. The combination of cloud cover with -15 to -20C H700 temperatures is keeping this afternoon's temperatures mostly in the lower/middle 30s for northern areas and only slightly warmer farther south. Partial clearing will take place tonight, paving the way for one more widespread hard freeze. Ridging aloft then moves in and commences a warming trend for the weekend into early next week. Despite the moderating temperatures, a closed low and attendant trailing cold front is still expected to temporarily displace the ridge on Sunday and bring a period on gusty westerly winds and perhaps a few hit or miss showers. H700 to H500 winds, supported by cold air advection aloft, will reach and exceed the 40 to 50kt range. The stronger winds will initially be confined to the eastern slopes of the Northern Rocky Mountain Front Sunday morning, but will quickly spread eastward onto the plains by the afternoon hours with the passage of a Pacific cold front and efficient diurnal mixing. Current probabilistic guidance only supports higher end chances (70% +) for wind gusts in excess of 55 mph along the Rocky Mountain Front and the adjacent high plains, but the set up described above should result in routine gusts in the 40 to 55 mph for most Central/North-central locations and gusts in the 30s and 40s in Southwest Montana. The inherited High Wind Watch was left as is for now and the situation will be monitored over the next day or so for any potential upgrades/expansion and or shifts in timing. The stronger winds do raise some fire weather concerns, with RHs forecast to be in the 20s during the period of strongest winds, but recent moisture is expected to preclude any widespread elevated fire weather risks. Ensembles remain in good agreement with upper level ridging moving into the Northern Rockies during the first part of next week for continued moderating temperatures, little or no precipitation, and diminishing winds; however, lingering stronger 35 to 45 kt H700 winds and moisture associated with the exiting low pressure system will result in gusty northwesterly winds and even a few showers on Monday, especially for the eastern portions of North-central MT. Temperatures peak on Wednesday in the 60s and 70s in spite of an approaching Pacific trough displacing the ridge of high pressure to the east and replacing it with a more unstable southwesterly flow. This will introduce shower and thunderstorm chances to most locations Wednesday afternoon and evening. Ensemble members diverge on forecast solutions for the second half of the workweek, with some members bringing a closed mid-level low along the Canadian border for overall drier and windier conditions and some keep the low farther north and more or less maintain troughing over the Pacific NW and southwesterly flow aloft in place. Either way, temperatures will steadily cool closer to normal heading into next weekend. - RCG && .AVIATION... 1110 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024 (19/18Z TAF Period) Low clouds associated with a re-enforcing cold front continued to overspread the plains of Central and North Central Montana late this morning, with MVFR/low-VFR CIGS expected through 19/21z to 20/03z due to these low clouds. In addition to the low clouds over KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, and KLWT terminals, flurries to at times light snow will be possible through the late afternoon hours today. Elsewhere, low- VFR/VFR conditions are expected throughout the duration of the 1918/2018 TAF period. Mountain obscuration is likely to persist through 06-12z Saturday. - Moldan Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 15 52 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 14 48 27 51 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 18 56 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 17 54 29 64 / 0 0 0 10 WYS 13 51 22 56 / 0 0 0 20 DLN 17 54 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 15 52 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 16 47 27 58 / 0 0 0 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls