FXUS65 KVEF 102002 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 102 PM PDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and very isolated thunderstorms are expected through the evening hours as a weak low pressure system sits overhead. Gusty winds are likely with the activity. Shower chances will shift into eastern Lincoln and Mohave Counties Saturday. By Sunday onward, a sharp climb in temperatures into above normal territory is expected with dry and breezy conditions in the afternoons. && .SHORT TERM...through Saturday. Isolated showers continue early this afternoon as a weak upper level low sits across southern Nevada. Most of the activity thus far has been tied to the higher terrain, with Lee and Kyle Canyons in the Spring Mountains reporting instances of wet snow and graupel. Lightning has been pretty limited thus far, mainly due to the very low values of instability and shallow nature of the cloud build ups, but there has been a handful of strikes mainly in Lincoln and Northern Mohave Counties, with a few also noted in western Inyo County. Activity will remain possible through this evening before diminishing with the loss of daylight. A few very weak showers may drift off the higher terrain into the desert valleys through the early evening, posing a risk for locally gusty and erratic winds. Calmer conditions are expected Saturday as the low shifts eastward, with chances for showers becoming limited to eastern Lincoln and northern Mohave Counties. Temperatures today and tomorrow will remain below average thanks to the lower than normal heights in the vicinity of the weak upper low. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday. Drier and warm conditions are still expected through the long term period. Ridging will tend to build in across the Pacific Northwestern States allowing for our regional heights to climb, despite a transient weak low pressure system undercutting our ridge to the north Monday and Tuesday. Its influence on our weather will be limited to a few high clouds, and temperatures 8 to 10 degrees above normal are still expected through the week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Northeast winds under 10 knots are expected to shift more to the northwest after 21z and become more gusty. Speeds are forecast to increase to around 10-15 knots with occasional gusts to 20 knots. There will also be increasing convection around the area through 02z this evening. Most of the storms will remain over or near the higher terrain, but there is the possibility of outflow boundaries that could bring variable and gusty winds to the terminal. Wind gusts up to 25 knots will be possible at times through the afternoon. Thunderstorm activity will diminish this evening with winds becoming light and variable after 06z. Convective activity is not expected Saturday with just a FEW- SCT clouds around 12-14k feet. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Most regional TAF sites will see north-to-northeast winds continue into this evening with speeds generally between 10-15 knots. A few scattered thunderstorms are expected across the northern two-thirds of the region this afternoon and early evening. Any storms that do develop may generate outflow winds from the direction of the storms and result in CIGs down to 8kft AGL. Away from any thunderstorm activity, VFR conditions will prevail with only FEW-SCT clouds AOA 10kft AGL. Convection is forecast to be mainly limited to areas east of the Colorado River with just a FEW- SCT clouds around 12-14k feet elsewhere. Winds will remain northwest to northeast over most areas with speeds around 10 knots or less. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Outler AVIATION...Gorelow For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter