FXUS66 KSTO 151956
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1256 PM PDT Mon Apr 15 2024


.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer weather through the week. 

&&

.Discussion...
Still observing low clouds around interior NorCal on GOES-18
Satellite this afternoon. Cloud coverage is expected to continue
to decrease as we move into the evening and overnight hours as the
departing low pressure continues to move eastward into the Four
Corners. Temperatures are expected to continue to climb into the
upper 60s and lower 70s around the Sacramento Valley. Overnight
low temperatures are expected to fall into the mid to upper 40s
for Valley locations, and low 30s to low 40s for higher
elevations.

Ensemble guidance continues to project upper level ridging to
develop over the eastern Pacific as the dominant synoptic pattern
in the short term. As the ridging continues to build over our 
area, cloudiness should also start to diminish as we move through 
the week. High temperatures will continue to rise as we progress 
through the work week. Tuesday, temperatures will be in the mid 
70s to lower 80s for the Valley, then Wednesday and Thursday we 
should see more widespread thermometer readings in the low 80s 
across most of the Valley. Breezy northerly winds may develop 
Wednesday morning, in response to a dry/weak shortwave moving 
through. Best chances for gusty winds of 15-25 mph northerly winds
will be along the I-5 corridor from Sacramento northward. 

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)...

Ensemble guidance and cluster analysis favor upper level ridging 
as the main feature over much of the extended forecast period, 
bringing continued warm and dry weather, although there is still 
some uncertainty in the clusters mainly from Monday onward. The 
National Blend of Models (NBM) currently suggests daytime high 
temperatures generally in the 70s to low 80s for the Valley, with 
upper 60s to near 80 in the foothills, and 50s to 70s in the 
mountains this weekend into early next week, which would be 
trending above the climatological normal for the third week of 
April. 

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail across most of interior NorCal this
afternoon, with local MVFR conditions due to low ceilings.  
Surface winds mainly below 12 knots.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$