FXXX10 KWNP 261231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Apr 26 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 26-Apr 28 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 26-Apr 28 2024

             Apr 26       Apr 27       Apr 28
00-03UT       2.00         2.67         2.67     
03-06UT       2.33         3.67         3.00     
06-09UT       3.33         3.00         3.67     
09-12UT       3.00         2.67         2.67     
12-15UT       3.67         2.67         2.67     
15-18UT       2.67         2.67         2.67     
18-21UT       2.67         3.00         2.00     
21-00UT       2.00         3.33         2.00     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 26-Apr 28 2024

              Apr 26  Apr 27  Apr 28
S1 or greater   15%     15%      5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) storms on 26-27 Apr
due to the location and flare potential of multiple active regions.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 25 2024 1712 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 26-Apr 28 2024

              Apr 26        Apr 27        Apr 28
R1-R2           75%           75%           55%
R3 or greater   15%           15%            5%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
slight chance for an R3 (Strong) event, on 26-27 Apr. R1-R2 events are
likely on 28 Apr.