FXZS60 NSTU 050126
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
226 PM SST Sat May 4 2024

.Short term... 
Latest satellite data shows convective clouds have gradually 
diminished in the area since this morning. Although showers have 
decreased, a lingering trough will hold the potential for flooding 
through the new week. GDI trends (Instability indicator) depicts high
GDI values with the trough through at least Tuesday. This scenario
suggests that the thunderstorms seen to the northeast will track 
towards the Islands starting tonight. However, model data seems to
be overestimating possible flooding conditions due to satellite 
data focusing areas of moisture and Instability more east than 
anticipated. Will monitor later satellite trends to see how things
play out. 

Furthermore, a low pressure system currently west of Savai'i will
draw in moisture to it as it moves along the axis through 
Tuesday. This pattern will be another driver in bringing in 
moisture from the northeast. Expect widespread showers with a 
chance for thunderstorms for this time. 

.Long term...
Model trends depicts the trough remaining in the area through the
end of the forecast period. Moisture and convection will be 
centered more southwest of Tutuila on Tuesday as a ridge to the 
east strengthens. By Wednesday, another ridge to the west will 
build over the American Samoa Region, thus moisture of the
territory. Numerous showers and a gentle breeze will hold for the
long term forecast.

.Marine...
Current satellite data shows wave heights around 8 feet. Seas will
briefly subside Sunday as winds weaken in the area. However, a
large south swell will keep ocean conditions at least at a small 
craft advisory (8 feet and higher) through Monday night.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

TM