FZAK80 PAFC 272300 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 300 PM AKST Wednesday 27 March 2024 FORECAST VALID...Monday 1 April 2024 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to High SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system over Saint Matthew Island weakens while another strengthens and tracks from the central Aleutians to the Pribilofs to Nunivak Island on Friday. Another system moves ashore the Alaska Peninsula on Saturday. The main ice edge extends from near Naknek to 57 52’N 159 48’W to 58 3’N 163 16’W to 57 43’N 163 58’W to 57 37’N 169 57’W to 60 24’N 177 22’W to 60 44’N 179 25’W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from near Naknek to 65 nm north of Port Heiden to 50 nm southwest of Cape Newenham to 80 nm southwest of Cape Newenham to 25 nm north of Saint Paul Island to 255 nm southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm- PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Northerly winds persist through Tuesday with much colder air returning to the region. Winds shift easterly on Wednesday and then southeasterly on Thursday, with the strongest winds near the Canadian border. For Friday and Saturday, winds become light out of the north. Overall, the ice pack is expected to move west 20 to 30 nm through Saturday. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm- PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm- Ice covered. PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm- PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm- FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Northerly winds will continue through the period. A polynya will continue to form from Point Hope through Kotzebue. -BERING SEA- PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm- PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm- PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm- PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm- PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters- PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island- Ice covered. PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm- PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm- PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm- PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm- FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. For the eastern Bering Sea, from the Pribilof Islands to Nunivak Island and eastward...southeasterly winds will turn southwesterly on Friday. Expect continued retreat of the ice edge, 15 to 25 nm to the north through Monday. Expect polynyas to form along the north and west facing coastlines. Shorefast ice that is not attached to the ocean floor will be at risk of breaking off. From Saint Matthew Island and westward, winds will remain northerly through Monday, with a period of gale-force northerlies on Thursday into Friday. Saturday and Sunday will feature a longer duration northlies, but lighter. Expect the ice edge overall to advance to the south 25 to 40 nm through Monday. -COOK INLET- PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- Ice covered. PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay- PKZ738-Shelikof Strait- PKZ741-Kachemak Bay- PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede- The main ice edge extends from near the West Foreland to Kalgin Island to near the East Foreland. The ice edge is open water. FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Seasonal melt of existing ice will continue as air temperatures remain in the upper 20s to upper 30s through Monday. Winds will remain fairly light through Saturday, so ice will generally move with tides and currents. A front on Saturday will bring a warmer air mass, stronger Chinook easterly winds, followed by a period of southerlies on Sunday. Areas of pack ice will remain mostly in the upper Inlet, though decreasing in area. Expect the ice edge overall to retreat to the north 30 to 40 nm through Monday. && Lawson