NZUS51 KSLC 050949
WRKSLC

.LONG TERM (After 00Z Sunday)...The GFS is now a little 
faster than the EC which follows its inconsistency from run-to-run 
over past several runs. Have therefore based the forecast on the 
more consistent EC. The 700 mb temps are basically the same between 
the EC and GFS at SLC at 00Z Sun with a forecast of -6 to -8 degrees 
C which signals the onset of snow on the valley floor right about 
this time or within an hour or two. The issue though is that the 
precip will be winding down so there may be little if any impact 
from snow in the valleys despite temperatures falling into the lower 
30s along the Wasatch Front by Sunday morning.

Although the surface cold front and 700 mb baroclinic zone will have 
moved into southeast Utah by Sunday morning the 500 mb cold trough 
will still be near the Utah/Nevada border. Have boosted PoPs some 
for Sunday as this cold core moves across the CWA it will cause 
instability showers through the day Sunday. The GFS takes the main 
cold core northeast into Wyoming by Sunday evening while the EC 
moves the cold core directly eastward across the CWA. This has been 
the trend over the past few EC runs so once again favored this 
solution over the GFS.

The EC basically builds the heights over the Great Basin from Sunday 
night through the middle of next week while the GFS indicates a weak 
disturbance may flatten the ridge some on Monday night into Tuesday. 
The trend by the GFS over the past few runs has been to be weaker 
with this feature and with the EC more consistent on this idea have 
gone with the dry and warmer solution reducing or eliminating PoPs 
beyond Tuesday. Temperatures will warm to above climo averages by 
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Only weather concern for the SLC terminal today will be 
if the winds will remain southerly or shift to northwest this 
afternoon at about 20-22Z. There is a 30 percent chance that the 
winds will remain southerly. VFR conditions will prevail through the 
TAF period.

&&

$$

Struthwolf