NZUS93 KMQT 021740
LLLMQT
MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-030540-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
140 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023

This morning, a band of convection swept through the Upper Peninsula, with a narrow band of MRMS-derived 1+ inch rainfall backed up by a few ground observations. While traditional wisdom would indicate that rainfall early in the day would impede future precipitation chances, the sun is shining in the wake of the precipitation with little to no smoke blockage. This will allow for destabilization of the atmosphere this afternoon in a northwesterly flow pattern, which is a particularly sensitive regime for severe weather climatology for Upper Michigan. 12Z HREF mean SBCAPE shows broad areas of 1,250-2,000 J/kg expected, with ensemble max SBCAPE showing the potential for that value to grow to upwards of 3,500 by 00Z. Paintball plots highlight the central to eastern UP as having the highest probabilities of thunderstorm development with more isolated chances in the western third. SPC Mesoanalysis is showing broadly around 35 kt of bulk effective shear across the UP except over the Keweenaw. With weak synoptic-level forcing, the expected storm mode favors isolated strong to severe cells with a supercell not out of the question, though northwesterly surface flow is typically not conducive for tornado development. 


$$