NZUS93 KPAH 150704
LLLPAH
ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-
114-151904-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

The cold front over the Plains/Midwest will begin to approach our 
region on Wednesday, and its along and ahead of it that we will see 
our second (and more concerning) wave of showers/storms develop. By
Wednesday late morning into the afternoon, the aforementioned plume
of low-level moisture will be over southern Indiana and central 
Kentucky as our second round of precipitation develops. Shear will
be in place to support organized strong/severe convection. All
severe hazards (straight line wind, hail, tornadoes) will be 
possible with severe convection. One important factor that will 
influence storm intensity/severity is how quickly we clear out and 
destabilize in the wake of the first round of showers/storms. Low
level moisture/dewpoint advection ahead of the front will contribute
to some destabilization... but lingering rain and/or clouds would
limit the amount of low/mid level lapse rate steepening that would
aid in higher amounts of instability. For what it is worth, global
ensemble statistics from a combination of the Euro, GFS, and
Canadian advertise ~50% chance of a plume of +1,000J/KG SBCAPE
across portions of the region Wednesday afternoon. With strong low
and deep layer shear in place, this would easily support a severe
weather episode in the region should these numbers verify.

Storms will clear out from west to east Wednesday night as the cold
front advances eastward.

Thursday into the Weekend...

Weak ridging aloft builds in Thursday before flow transitions to 
more of a quasi-zonal pattern for Friday/Saturday. A subtle wave
within the flow will pass through the area on Friday and likely 
bring some clouds/rain to the region. Depending on how far north the
surface low tracks, portions of our region could be within its warm
sector so there may be a low-end storm risk. Otherwise, a fairly 
strong cold front by mid/late April standards will come crashing 
into the area Friday night into early Saturday. Some guidance shows 
rain lingering behind the front, so those with outdoor plans may
want to monitor subsequent forecasts to see how this trends.

$$