WGAK48 PAFC 102011
FLWAFC

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1211 PM AKDT Sun Sep 10 2023

AKZ121-172000-
/O.NEW.PAFC.FA.W.0011.230910T2011Z-230917T2000Z/
/00000.0.GO.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Kenai Peninsula AK-
1211 PM AKDT Sun Sep 10 2023

...FLOOD WARNING FOR A GLACIER-DAMMED LAKE OUTBURST IN EFFECT UNTIL 
NOON AKDT SUNDAY ALONG KENAI RIVER...
...REPLACES FLOOD ADVISORY...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by a glacier-dammed lake outburst is 
  expected.

* WHERE...Kenai River below Skilak Lake, including Kenai Keys.

* WHEN...Until noon AKDT Sunday Sep 17.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of Kenai River and flood-prone locations is 
  imminent or occurring.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1201 PM AKDT, river gauge reports and satellite data
    indicate rises in water levels from two glacier-dammed lake
    outbursts across the warned area, including one from the
    release of Snow Glacier-dammed lake outburst that occurred
    near Snow River and compounded by the additional release
    occurring from Skilak Glacier-dammed lake outburst. River
    rises will cause flooding along the Kenai River.

  - Water levels along the Kenai River will continue to increase
    throughout this week. High water levels are expected further
    downstream in the lower Kenai River, but flooding is not
    expected for the lower Kenai River at this time.

  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...

  - For Kenai River below Skilak Lake:
    At 10:30am the stage was 12.97 feet.
    Flood Stage is 13.0 feet.
    Forecast: A water level of around 14.1 feet is expected
    around 10:00pm Wednesday.

    Impacts:
    At 8.4 feet: Low water level -- Class I whitewater below
    Skilak Lake
    At 10.4 feet: Medium water level -- Class I whitewater below
    Skilak Lake
    At 11.4 feet: High water level -- Class II whitewater below
    Skilak Lake
    At 15.0 feet: Water inundates the Kenai Keys neighborhood.

  - For Kenai River at Kenai Keys:
    At 8:00am the stage was 10.65 feet.
    Flood Stage is 11.0 feet.
    Forecast: A water level of 11.1 feet is expected around
    10:00pm Tuesday.

    Impacts:
    At 10.7 feet: In October of 2020, water was in the lowest
    lying garages of the Kenai Keys subdivision.
    At 12.0 feet: Water starts to flow over some of the roads in
    the Kenai Keys subdivision.
    At 13.2 feet: In 2012, water was 2 feet deep over Kenai Keys
    Road, near the entrance to the subdivison.
    At 13.5 feet: Water starts to flow into garages and cabins in
    the Kenai Keys subdivision; and likely flooding downstream.

  - Inherent uncertainty in initial glacier lake volume will
    result in varying crest height and timing.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 6047 15049 6046 15052 6045 15058 6052 15074
      6052 15077 6053 15079 6054 15077 6054 15073
      6048 15057 6047 15057


$$

VR