WTIO30 FMEE 041243
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/10/20232024
1.A FILLING UP 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.5 S / 39.5 E
(SEVEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1007 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1013 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/05 00 UTC: 6.3 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING






2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
ASCAT DATA FROM 0655Z RECEIVED JUST AFTER THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN WAS
ISSUED HAVE ENABLED US TO GAIN A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF HIDAYA'S
POSITION, INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE. THE SYSTEM HAS AS EXPECTED
UNDERGONE A VERY RAPID WEAKENING PHASE SINCE LAST NIGHT, DUE TO SHEAR
AND INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR. THE ASCAT SHOWS AN ILL-DEFINED, WEAK
CIRCULATION (WINDS AT 30-35 KT) ON THE VERGE OF EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN
TROUGH (UNCLOSED CIRCULATION). THIS REMNANT LOW CIRCULATED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY OVER THE ISLAND OF MAFIA. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
VISIBLE MSG-2 IMAGES, IT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE TANZANIAN COASTLINE,
WITH DISSIPATION VERY LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS:

TANZANIA:
- HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TANZANIA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150 MM
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS (MAINLY OVERNIGHT), MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS (BETWEEN DAR ES SALAAM AND
MTWARA) BUT ALSO INLAND.

- WINDS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE ARE NO MORE EXPECTED.

- SEA STATE IMPROVING, WITH AVERAGE WAVES BACK UNDER 4M OVERNIGHT.

LAST BULLETIN ISSUED BY CMRS DE LA REUNION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM,
EXCEPT RE-INTENSIFICATION. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=