WTIO30 FMEE 251831 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/4/20252026 1.A REMNANT LOW 4 (CHENGE) 2.A POSITION 2025/10/25 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.2 S / 50.2 E (EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.5/W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 61 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 445 NW: 185 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2025/10/26 06 UTC: 7.7 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 305 NW: 0 24H: 2025/10/26 18 UTC: 7.5 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 305 NW: 0 36H: 2025/10/27 06 UTC: 7.0 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP 48H: 2025/10/27 18 UTC: 6.2 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP 60H: 2025/10/28 06 UTC: 4.4 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING 72H: 2025/10/28 18 UTC: 2.8 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=1.5 CI=2.5- OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH CHENGE HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED. ALL THAT REMAINS IS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT HAS WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE IN A SHEARED CONFIGURATION. IN SUCH A CONFIGURATION, IT IS STILL POSSIBLE TO PERFORM A DVORAK T ANALYSIS AT 1.5, BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY THE LAST ONE UNLESS THERE IS A TEMPORARY RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTRE CAN BE LOCATED MORE PRECISELY BY INFRARED ANIMATIONS WITH CERTAIN COLOUR PALETTES, VALIDATING THE WSFM DATA AT 37GHZ. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, CHENGE IS DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW WITH ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS OF 30KT, IN THE ABSENCE OF VALIDATION BY ASCAT DATA. CHENGE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY THE LOW TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF ASTOVE AND ALDABRA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE COASTS OF TANZANIA AND KENYA. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, UNDER THE EFFECT OF STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND GRADUALLY BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE TANZANIAN AND KENYAN COASTS, WHERE THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN AND DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY RESUME DURING THE TRACK TOWARDS THE AFRICAN COAST, BUT THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF RE-INTENSIFICATION. EXPECTED IMPACTS ON LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: - NORTH OF ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE (MADAGASCAR) : 4M WAVES UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. - ASTOVE/ALDABRA : HEAVY SHOWERS AND 4-5M WAVES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. - TANZANIAN COAST AND EXTREME SOUTH OF KENYA : HEAVY SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, UP TO 50MM IN 24H LOCALLY. LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12UTC (AWIO20 FMEE).=