WTPN21 PGTW 162300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT COR//

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.3N 135.1E TO 7.6N 129.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 00 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 45 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 160000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.0N 135.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 45 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 989 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LOCATED 40NM SOUTHEAST OF NGERULMUD, PALAU,
AND 570NM EAST OF DAVAO, PHILLIPINES, AND IS MOVING WNW AT 14
KTS. WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICRICLE AND 400 MILES ELSEWHERE. EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 50 KTS
WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 800 MILES
ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 170000Z.

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