WTPN22 PGTW 202100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W) CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.2N 133.1E TO 15.4N 130.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 210000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.2N 133.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.1N 130.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 133.1E, APPROXIMATELY 585 NM
EAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 201336Z GMI 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE PARTIALLY OBSCURING A BROAD ELONGATED LLC. THE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) IS WELL OVER 160 NM. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING ENHANCED BY A
DEVELOPING OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A STRONG TUTT-CELL TO THE NORTHEAST.
VWS REMAINS LOW (10-15KT) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT
A WARM 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
212100Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGED WARNING GRAPHIC STORM NUMBER
FROM 98E TO 98W.
//
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