WTPN23 PHNC 160130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E) REISSUE//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150121Z AUG 20//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 92.5W TO 11.7N 99.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 160000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 93.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.4N 93.1W, APPROXIMATELY 248 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHAMPERICO,
GUATEMALA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 152225Z 91GHZ
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 95E TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SST (30-31C), LOW VWS (< 15KTS), AND STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 95E WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
170130Z.
//
NNNN