WTXS21 PGTW 010200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S) //
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.9S 44.9E TO 9.0S 43.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
010100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.1S
44.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6.7S 46.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 44.8E, APPROXIMATELY 239 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF COMOROS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
AMSR2 302208Z 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING AND DEEPENING
CONVECTION AND A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF
TURNING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS (29-30C) SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY
LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS MORE WESTWARD
TOWARD THE COAST OF TANZANIA WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020200Z.//
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