####018008644#### FXUS61 KOKX 040750 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 250 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the area will weaken this morning. A cold front will pass through this afternoon, followed by strong high pressure building from the west tonight into Friday. The high will pass east Friday night as weak low pressure passes well to the south Friday night and heads well out to sea on Saturday. A cold front will move through Sunday night, with Arctic high pressure building in behind it. This high will likely remain in control through early next week. Low pressure may impact the area Wednesday as it passes to the north and west. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Points: * A dry cold frontal passage will take place this afternoon. * Low wind chills and record low temps possible at some spots tonight. Approaching front today should come through in split fashion, with a pre-frontal trough roughly around midday, then the actual cold front later this afternoon into early this evening. Model fcst soundings are much drier than earlier cycles due to downslope flow and presence of drier air aloft, so have removed mention of precip despite marginally favorable parameters showing weak low level instability and minimal SSQ parameter values which can sometimes work well even for forecasting snow showers. Think there will be mostly virga with fropa, and wouldn't entirely rule out a stray flurry well NW of NYC from about 18Z-21Z with the actual cold frontal passage. Streamers from the Great Lakes following fropa are unlikely to make it into the area this evening, but are still something worth monitoring. Temps reaching the upper 30s/lower 40s this afternoon will plummet tonight, reaching the single digits in some spots well inland, teens most elsewhere, and the lower 20s in/just outside NYC and out by Montauk. Some record low temps may be approached or set. Winds should veer/increase veer today with the approach and passage of the pre-frontal trough and actual cold front, with W flow 10-15 gusting up to 20 mph this morning, then WNW flow 15-20 mph gusting to 25-30 mph this afternoon, and NW flow 20-25 mph gusting to 25-35 mph late today into this evening after fropa. Winds then quickly diminish late tonight as high pressure starts to build in. Tonight's winds in combination with falling temps will lead to wind chills in the single digits and teens as early as this evening. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key Points: * Cold conditions continue, especially daytime Friday. * Weak low pressure passing well south may brush the area with some light snow/rain Friday night into Saturday. Temps on Fri as the high builds across will only reach the mid/upper 20s inland, lower 30s most elsewhere, and the mid 30s across eastern Long Island. Still maintaining a 30-40 PoP as the precip shield with a srn stream low passing off Hatteras and moving nearly due E out to sea skirts the area. Precip type should be mostly light snow with little to no accumulation Fri night, then light rain or a rain/snow mix on Sat as temps warm and mid levels dry out. Low temps Fri night and Sat night will be mostly in the 20s to lower 30s. Highs on Sat will be in the upper 30s/lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Points: * Mainly dry conditions with below normal temperatures expected early next week. * A cold air mass appears likely Sunday night through Tuesday. Highs on Monday may struggle to rise above freezing even down to the coast. A stronger cold front will move across the area Sunday night that will usher in a cold air mass for early next week. The cold air looks to hang around into Tuesday. Lows Monday look to fall into the teens and low 20s with highs on Monday in the upper 20s/lower 30s. Wind chills will be as low as the single digits well inland and teens elsewhere both Sunday night and Mon night. Lows Tuesday morning may be in the teens for much of the area, with highs moderating a bit into the 30s. Moderating temperatures are signaled with the latest model consensus indicating highs rebounding into upper 30s inland and lower/mid 40s near the coast. A clipper system may move across the Northeast on Wednesday, but this is a week out and models/ensembles differ on timing and strength of the low pressure. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure in place gradually weakens overnight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The cold front moves through during the afternoon Thursday. High pressure then builds to the west late Thursday and over the region late Thursday night. VFR. With the passage of the cold front Thursday a brief period of snow showers will be possible which will be accompanied by strong and gusty winds. Maintained the 2 hour PROB30 for the best timing of the snow showers, however, this will likely be refined with later forecasts. Light NW to light and variable winds overnight become light westerly toward 10Z. The winds then increase slightly into early Thursday morning. With the passage of a cold front northwest winds will quickly increase to 15 to 19 kt with gusts around 30 kt. Winds and gusts begin to diminish around 00Z Friday with the gusts ending late Thursday night. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected into Thursday morning. Amendments will be possible for the cold front passage and the possibility of snow showers. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Late Thursday night: VFR. Friday: VFR during the day. Chance of MVFR and light snow at night, especially for southern and eastern terminals. Saturday: Chance of MVFR and light rain in the morning, mainly E of the NYC metros. Sunday through Monday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Seas 5+ ft should return to the ocean waters from east to west overnight into this morning as westerly flow gradually increases to near 20 kt. Gusts over 25 kt expected on all waters early this afternoon, then NW gales expected on the ocean and the eastern Sound/bays of Long Island late today into this evening following a cold frontal passage, with winds gusting to 30 kt on the Harbor/wrn Sound/south shore bays. Seas should peak at 5-8 ft on the ocean E of Fire Island Inlet, 4-7 on the ocean W of there, and 5 ft on the Long Island side of the central/ern Sound. Blowout tides may be possible on the western Sound with the low tide early this evening, with water levels approaching 2 ft below MLLW. A low water advisory may eventually be issued. SCA cond on the ocean and the ern Sound/bays late tonight quickly ramp down, with quiet cond through the weekend. The next chance for SCA conditions occurs late Sunday night into Monday as a cold front moves across the waters. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels may touch minor flood thresholds at the Bridgeport and Stamford CT tide gauges with the midday high tide on Sat as low pressure passes well south. && .CLIMATE... Low temps Fri morning may reach daily record lows at KJFK/KBDR, and may also get close at KLGA. High temps Fri may also be close to daily record low maxes at KLGA/KJFK. Record Low Temperatures: KEWR: 15/1935 KBDR: 17/1989 KNYC: 11/1926 KLGA: 21/1942 KJFK: 20/1966 KISP: 13/1966 Record Low Maximum Temperatures: KEWR: 31/2002 KBDR: 28/2002 KNYC: 22/1886 KLGA: 32/2002 KJFK: 33/2007 KISP: 30/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for ANZ331-332-340-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight EST tonight for ANZ335-338-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BG/JT NEAR TERM...BG SHORT TERM...BG LONG TERM...JT AVIATION...MET/JT MARINE...BG/JT HYDROLOGY...BG/JT TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG CLIMATE...BG ####018001880#### FXUS65 KFGZ 040752 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1252 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Fair weather returns today with a warming trend beginning on Friday and lasting through next week. && .DISCUSSION...The storm system that brought light snowfall to much of northern Arizona on Wednesday has pushed east of the state this morning. Some low clouds will linger in parts of eastern Arizona through the morning hours with otherwise clearing skies today. It will also remain cool today, with daytime highs running 5-10 degrees below average for early December. The general pattern of strong ridging off the west coast and dry northwesterly flow across Arizona is forecast to persist for the next week. Warmer daytime temperatures arrive by Friday, reaching 5-10 degrees above normal by the weekend and as much as 10-15 degrees above normal by the middle of next week. Winds are looking fairly light through the period, though some increased westerly breezes of 10-15 mph are forecast for Saturday. && .AVIATION...Thursday 04/06Z through Friday 05/06Z...VFR expected. Light winds but locally gusty NE winds to 20 kts downwind of the higher terrain. OUTLOOK...Friday 05/06Z through Sunday 07/06Z...VFR conditions and light winds. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Dry and cool conditions. Winds north/northeast 5-10 mph today, becoming light and variable on Friday. Saturday through Monday...Dry conditions and warming temperatures. Winds west 5-15 mph on Saturday, becoming north/northeast 5-10 mph for Sunday and Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff