####018004802#### FXUS61 KCAR 110416 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1216 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds across the region through Saturday night. A warm front approaches Sunday, then lifts to the north Sunday night and Monday. A storm system approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday then crosses the region Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1216AM Update...Clouds continue to clear in the north. No major changes to the forecast for this update. Previous discussion: Surface high pressure centered across the Gulf of Saint Lawrence will ridge back across the region tonight through Saturday. Aloft, troffing re-develops across the region tonight into Saturday. A disturbance will move through the trof Saturday. Diurnal clouds will decrease early tonight generally leaving partly cloudy/mostly clear skies across the forecast area overnight. However, indications are that clouds could also begin to back across southeast portions of the forecast area, from the Maritimes, late which could lead to increasing clouds there. Expect partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies across the forecast area Saturday. Could also have isolated, mostly afternoon, showers. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower to mid 30s north, to the mid to upper 30s Downeast. High temperatures Saturday will generally range from the mid to upper 50s across much of the forecast, with slightly cooler temperatures possible along the Downeast coast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure at the surface centered near Labrador will continue to ridge down across the region Saturday night. Expect partly cloudy skies Saturday night and partly sunny to mainly cloudy skies on Sunday. The center of H5 low/cold pool aloft is expected to remain to our south during Sunday. The forecast soundings suggest the low levels will remain quite dry on Sunday. The better instability associated with the upper level low/cold pool aloft remains to our south and west, thus kept things dry through Sunday. The upper low crosses the region Sunday night and exits east toward the Canadian Maritimes. Forecast soundings do show a bit more more instabilty aloft on the northwest side of the departing upper low/cold pool aloft on Monday, but once again the low levels look too dry to support much in the way of measurable rainfall through most of the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Warm front approaches Monday night crosses the region on Tuesday, followed by an approaching cold front later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Moisture begins to increase in advance of the front later Tuesday. There are model discrepancies Tuesday night and Wednesday with regard to how quickly the front moves through. Some models bring the front through Tuesday night. GFS/CMC on the other hand slow the front up, with indications that weak areas of low pressure will move northeast along the front. There is also uncertainty as to how much southern stream phasing occurs and whether we tap into more significant gulf moisture, with the potential for some heavier rain. Have maintained shower wording, but this may turn out to be a more stratiform rain Tuesday night into Wednesday. For now, used the latest NBM pops for rain chances. A return to drier conditions should follow for late week behind the aforementioned system. Afternoon highs will trend near or a bit above normal mid to late week. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR expected through Saturday, except there is the chance for a period of MVFR ceilings at KBGR and KBHB late tonight into Saturday morning. Forecast confidence is not great, but did add in MVFR ceilings with the 00z Tafs as the MVFR ceilings have been observed with the clouds as they move out of New Brunswick and back into eastern Maine. Northeast winds less than 10 knots through Saturday, and very light most of the time the remainder of the night. SHORT TERM: Sun night through Mon...Mainly VFR. Mon night and Tue...VFR/MVFR. Chance showers. Tue night through Wed...MVFR or lower possible in showers/rain. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Saturday. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas generally below SCA levels through the period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...LaFlash/Norcross Short Term...TWD Long Term...TWD Aviation...LaFlash/Norcross/TWD Marine...LaFlash/Norcross/TWD ####018006140#### FXUS63 KGLD 110417 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1017 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are forecast for this weekend. Severe weather over the weekend is not expected at this time. - Severe weather potential may return by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 141 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 A 500 mb low pressure system is still stalled out over the Great Basin. This afternoon and into the evening, this will send out a weak shortwaves across the Great Plains, creating enough forcing to start some light precipitation, but not enough for anything organized or severe. Until about 0-3Z this evening, light showers will be over eastern Colorado, mostly just creating virga as there is a moderately pronounced dry layer near and above the surface. Some light rain accumulation is not entirely out of the question for these locations, but anything more than a hundredth or two is unexpected. These light showers could spill over into far western Kansas, but confidence of this occurring is less than 20%. Saturday afternoon and into the overnight hours look to be a different story as the low pressure system starts moving to the east. This will provide enough forcing for some slightly more organized precipitation, including a few thunderstorms. The threat for severe weather is low, but not 0. MUCAPE looks to be limited to around 300-800 J/KG and effective shear is about 15-20 kts or less. This could lead to some pop-up storms that are quickly lived. Before about 0Z Sunday, any storm that rapidly grows in an area of higher CAPE could burst out, so we will need to keep an eye out for strong winds with decaying storms tomorrow. Sunday afternoon looks to be the "best" chance in the short- term for some impactful precipitation and severe storms, although no parameters look very impressive. A weak 850 mb lee low is expected to form in the very early morning hours Sunday and move across the CWA in the mid-day. Supplied with a 20-35 kts LLJ, we will have plenty of moisture to work with, which does cause some concern for flooding potential. However, due to little rainfall over the previous week and soundings show upshear speeds around 20-25 kts (a little fast for flooding), there is only about 5-10% confidence flooding would occur. PWATS are near 1 inch and there is an fairly elevated freezing level which adds to the confidence, but does not make it certain. CAPE looks to be around 1,000-1,500 J/kg with EBWD shear around 25-30 kts, making low-end severe storms possible (~5% chance). Saturday looks to warm into the upper 60s and 70s, however cloud cover could lower these temperatures 3-5 degrees if the clouds become more widespread and move farther east early. Sunday will be cooler with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, due to the low pressure system moving a cold front across the area. Tonight will cool into the 40s; some locations in eastern Colorado could see upper 30s if the clouds clear out early and the winds become calm. Tomorrow night will be warmer as the LLJ will be moving warm, moist air into the region. The western CWA will remain in the mid 40s but the eastern CWA looks to stay in the mid 50s. Sunday night will be slightly cooler behind the cold front, likely down into the 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 240 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 The extended forecast begins with an upper trough over southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Low pressure will move across the region, bringing a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms to the region. Right now, the highest chances (30-50%) will be for areas along and southeast of a line from McCook, Nebraska to Goodland, Kansas. Expected temperatures will be in the low to mid-70s for highs and the low to mid-40s for lows. Tuesday through the end of the forecast, there will be a shift in the pattern. Weak ridging followed by westerly flow will bring warmer air into the Tri-State area. The morning is expected to be dry, with at least a 10-30% chance of a few showers and storms in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday afternoon will be unseasonably warm, with many areas reaching the low 80s. Normal highs are in the low 70s for this time of the year. Overnight lows will range from the mid-40s in eastern Colorado to the low 50s in the eastern part of the CWA. Mid-to-late week, a disturbance will move into the region. This will bring temperatures back to around normal, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Lows will be in the low to mid-40s. There will be a chance of some precipitation during this timeframe, although timing and location is uncertain at this point in time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1015 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 GLD: VFR conditions will prevail through the day on Saturday. Expect mostly clear skies overnight through Saturday morning, with ~4-5 KFT AGL ceilings developing Saturday afternoon.. when showers may approach the terminal from the south. Sub-VFR conditions associated with showers (perhaps a storm) are expected near the end of the TAF period (00-06Z Sunday). Light and variable winds will prevail overnight. Winds will shift to the S-SSW late Saturday morning.. increasing to ~12-17 knots during the afternoon. MCK: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.. with ceilings confined above ~8 KFT AGL. Light and variable winds will prevail overnight. Winds will shift to the S-SSW late Saturday morning.. modestly increasing to 10-15 knots during the mid-late afternoon (~21Z). && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...Wekesser AVIATION...Vincent ####018005913#### FXUS64 KLCH 110419 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1119 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 858 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 High level cloudiness will be moving across the forecast area tonight is the only type of clouds expected. Dewpoints are in the 60s so it should feel less humid with low temperatures a little closer to seasonal. Current forecast is on track and no changes at this time. Rua && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows the cool front which passed the area earlier this morning now southeast of the forecast area, extending from an area of low pressure near KMOB to the nwrn Gulf. Meanwhile, high pressure centered over the Rockies/srn Plains was building sewd over the region, with obs showing a mainly nrly/nerly low-level flow. The airmass associated with the building high is definitely drier as dewpoints have dropped 10-15 degrees in 24 hours. Water vapor imagery shows the troffing associated with the sfc front and last night's severe weather now well to our east with weak ridging building overhead and to our west. Regional 88Ds show a few showers/storms associated with an approaching disturbance still off to our west, but the drier air noted in this morning's KLCH sounding was winning out as earlier activity never made it close to the area. The bulk of the short-term remains dry again this afternoon as the weak ridging aloft and encroaching sfc high pressure control our area weather through Saturday. Cooler temps are in store for tonight with lows back in the much more seasonal 60s for all but the immediate coastline. Despite highs again the 80s for Saturday, dewpoints in the 50s will make it feel much more pleasant. Rain chances return to the forecast on Sunday as a shortwave is progged to cut off over the srn Rockies, while sfc high pressure pushes east of the forecast area and ushers in a moister srly flow off the Gulf. With forecast soundings indicating mean RH values rising to around 90 percent and PWAT values climbing to around 2.0 inches (well above the 90th percentile per SPC sounding climo), scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop through the day Sunday and linger through Sunday night. Although forecasted rainfall amounts during this period aren't overly scary, given the antecedent conditions from the recent constant periods of (sometimes heavy) rainfall, WPC is highlighting all but the sern zones in a slight risk for excessive rainfall for day 3 (marginal risk for the sern zones). 25 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Trending into the long term starting at the beginning of the upcoming work week, a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is present across the entire watch area Monday into Tuesday AM. Synoptically, a shortwave and associated precipitation will continue to progress from the central Plains toward the Ohio Valley with notable forcing along the cold front to realize thunderstorm activity across portions of SETX and SWLA. Then an all too familiar scenario of an unsettled wet pattern comes into mind yet again. Low level subsidence builds behind the front by Tuesday evening and persists with more zonal upper level flow aloft through early AM Thursday. Hereafter, the next system begins to take shape out west near the Four Corners region. Global models are split on the evolution of the shortwave, but more importantly, there is great disconnect from the deepening downstream surface low developing on the Plains late Thursday. Meanwhile, upstream flow higher aloft (around 250mb heights) detaches vertical continuity and amplifies the trough from the Great Lakes to California. Thus, while pops are reintroduced toward the end of the forecast period, confidence is not strong to detail any potential hazards when considering the number of variances among deterministic forecast guidance with the National Blend of Models. However, what is understood, are the signals for a continued opportunity to have precipitation enter SETX and SWLA toward the end of the work week once again. Kowalski/30 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 No changes to the thinking as far as the aviation goes tonight. High pressure at the surface will be moving across the forecast area through tomorrow with mainly light northeast winds overnight becoming more easterly on Saturday. The easterly winds will be a little bit stronger and more gusty on Saturday for KBPT and KLCH. The northeast flow will bring in drier air in the low levels with just high level cloudiness moving overhead. Therefore, VFR conditions are expected during the period. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Inserting caution headlines for the wrn/cntl coastal waters for late tonight and part of tomorrow as nerly winds increase to criteria. Winds could briefly touch advisory criteria, but not sure for how long if it even happens. Winds are expected to shift serly and increase again on Sunday as the gradient over the nwrn Gulf tightens...SCA conditions are expected at that time. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 62 83 63 77 / 0 0 10 40 LCH 66 85 68 82 / 0 10 10 50 LFT 67 87 68 85 / 0 10 10 30 BPT 67 86 69 83 / 0 10 10 60 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...07