####018008122#### FXUS63 KGLD 211815 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1215 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures return by the end of the week, with triple digit highs this weekend into early next week. - Scattered storms are possible during the late aft-eve hours on Wed and Thu. Low confidence in thunderstorm coverage on both days. Organized severe weather is not expected. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 100 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026 Current RAP analysis continues to show high pressure across the Rockies. Further to the north a weak cold front is situated across southern Nebraska and is slowly moving to the south towards the area. A wind shift to the north is forecast to occur starting in the area in between 06-09Z and continue to move to the south through the morning hours. Mixing heights with the front are only a couple hundred feet through around 13Z before increasing to around 1000- 1500 feet. As the front moves through not anticipating much of an increase with the wind, more than likely sustained winds of 10-15 mph due to weak and a wind shift. Around 12-13Z as mentioned mixing heights are forecast to increase so do think that some gusts of 30- 35 knots may be able to be realized as a weak 850mb jet is forecast to remain in place through mid morning. With the front, can't completely rule out some weak or brief showers with the additional forcing but currently anticipating most if not all of any precipitation to remain virga due to dry low levels. With the front some haze from fires in Canada is forecast to move into the area from the north as noted in the 00Z HRRR and RRFS. Not anticipating any impacts with this other than perhaps a notable haze through Tuesday morning and afternoon. Tuesday, breezy winds are forecast to continue through morning hours with some gusts up to 30 knots through late morning as an 850mb jet lingers over the area and diurnal mixing resumes. Forecast soundings suggests that this jet should weaken as the day goes on but with sustained winds remaining around 15-20 knots through the afternoon. The ridge from the past few days become a bit less amplified leading to a little less hot temperatures than the past few days with high temperatures in the 90s. Tuesday night, a shortwave moves across the northern periphery of said ridge leading to the potential for showers and storms across Yuma, Dundy, Hitchcock and Red Willow counties. Guidance also does indicate a warm air advection moving north overnight which also may be the source for additional showers and storms developing a little further south due to isentropic ascent in the 315K level; perhaps as far south as Interstate 70. A developing 700mb jet from the west would serve as some additional forcing as well for some backbuilding potential for northern portions of the area. Severe weather looks to be very unlikely with the activity. Lighting and downpours would be the only potential hazards especially for any ongoing county fairs with livestock remaining outdoors overnight. Should the rainfall develop as far south as some guidance suggests then the rainfall could last through mid morning before exiting the area. The high pressure then moves south of the area for the day with closer to normal temperatures in the low to mid 90s forecast. If the high were to not push as far south then southern portions of the area may approach the triple digits again. Wednesday evening a subtle wave is forecast to move off of the Rockies and onto the Plains along with a developing 700mb jet to further aid in potential shower and storm development again through the night. Severe weather is again unlikely but some stronger storms could have the potential for some hail up to nickel size as wind shear is a bit better between 20-25 knots. Currently think locally heavy rain would be the primary concern as PWATS are forecast to increase to around 1.5 due to monsoonal moisture off of the Rockies interacts with a plume of some tropical moisture from the southeast. Some ensemble members do try to paint around 1-1.5 inches of rain in 6 hours somewhere across the CWA Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 100 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026 Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement on the synoptic evolution through late week and into next weekend, featuring a late summer Southern High Plains/Central Rockies ridge of high pressure pattern. The Tri-State Area will sit on the northern periphery of the mid level ridge axis, maintaining generally zonal flow aloft with subtle shortwave trough impulses ejecting out of Colorado on Thursday and Friday afternoons. High confidence exists regarding near to above normal warmth. The NBM 25th to 75th percentile range for daily maximum temperatures remains exceptionally tight spread of only 3-5 degrees for Saturday and Sunday with temps nearing 100, indicating strong ensemble consensus for above normal temperatures this weekend. Model spread is higher i.e. higher uncertainty for maximum temperatures for Thursday and Friday on the order of 6-10 degrees ranging from the upper 80s to the lower 90s depending on cloud cover and precipitation coverage. As the 500 mb ridge amplifies slightly over the Southern Plains Friday into Sunday, warm 850 mb thermal ridges 30-33 C build into the Plains. Median NBM highs push into the upper 90s for most of the CWA, with the eastern third e.g Hill City, Norton, McCook areas seeing a 40-60% probability of temperatures topping 100 degrees on Saturday and 60-80% on Sunday for much of the area. Maximum afternoon heat index values across eastern locations may approach between 100 and 105 on Saturday and Sunday afternoons as low level moisture lingers east of the dryline. Thursday Afternoon PoPs peak in the 20-40% range west of KS Hwy 27 and across eastern Colorado Cheyenne/Kit Carson counties where terrain forced lift and low-level convergence are greatest. Later in the evening model forecasts indicate higher probabilities heading into Thursday night with increasing chances of at least some precipitation with model averages between 0.15 and 0.25, locally higher amounts possible as high as 40% chance of exceeding 0.30. Ensemble SBCAPE probabilities exceed 40% for > 1000 J/kg east of the dryline each afternoon. However, deep-layer shear remains modest 20-25 kts, keeping storms mostly somewhat unorganized at this time. High inverted-V low levels DCAPE > 1200 J/kg suggest localized strong downburst winds 40-60 mph will be the primary threats with collapsing cells. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1159 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026 GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with cloud cover confined to transient wisps of cirrus at or above ~18,000 ft AGL. Easterly winds at 15-20 knots w/gusts to ~25 knots will decrease to 12-17 knots w/gusts to ~20 knots by mid- afternoon (19-21Z), then veer to the ESE and further decrease to ~10-15 knots by sunset. 10-15 knot ESE winds will persist overnight, becoming SE late Wednesday morning, near the end of the 18Z TAF period. MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with cloud cover confined to transient wisps of cirrus at or above ~18,000 ft AGL. Easterly winds at 12-17 knots this afternoon will veer to the ESE and decrease to 8-12 knots by sunset. Light ESE winds will persist overnight, becoming SE and increasing to 12-17 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots late Wednesday morning, near the end of the 18Z TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Kochasic AVIATION...Vincent ####018003061#### FXUS64 KSJT 211817 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 117 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and dry conditions are forecast this week and into the weekend. - A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of the Big Country this afternoon and early evening. - A Heat Advisory is in effect again Wednesday afternoon and early evening across the Big Country, Heartland and Mason county. - Forecast afternoon highs and heat indices will likely reach Heat Advisory criteria across portions of the forecast area Thursday into the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 An upper level ridge currently over Colorado and western Kansas will drift south into northwest Texas by tomorrow afternoon. This will result in a continuation of hot and dry conditions across West Central Texas again on Wednesday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of the Big Country through early this evening, where heat index values will approach 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory has been issued for tomorrow as well, but will expand across the Heartland counties and also include Mason county. Heat index values tomorrow afternoon will range between 105 and 108 degrees in the advisory area, highest over the Heartland. Temperatures tonight will be warm, with overnight lows in the mid and upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 Hot and dry weather will persist across the area through the extended period, as high pressure dominates. Highs will range from the upper 90s across the south, and between 100 and 106 from the Concho Valley north into the Big Country. Heat Advisories will likely be needed each day through the extended period, primarily from the Concho Valley and Heartland north into the Big Country, where heat indices between 105 and 108 are expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 VFR conditions through the next 24 hours with light and variable or southerly winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 78 101 79 100 / 0 0 10 0 San Angelo 74 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 73 99 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 76 101 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 77 102 79 102 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 73 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 75 100 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Callahan-Fisher- Haskell-Jones-Shackelford-Taylor-Throckmorton. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for Brown-Callahan- Coleman-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Mason-McCulloch-Nolan-San Saba- Shackelford-Taylor-Throckmorton. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...20 ####018005652#### FXUS66 KSGX 211819 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 1119 AM PDT Tue Jul 21 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Increase in both high and low temperatures expected for the middle of this week into early next week. Widespread moderate to areas of major HeatRisk away from the coast are expected during this time, with locally extreme HeatRisk in the low deserts. There is a slight chance of showers and 5 percent chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoons over the mountains and High Desert. Otherwise, dry conditions expected through the weekend. This week marine layer low clouds will remain patchy and confined to the coast. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Areas of high clouds are being observed on satellite this morning. Areas of clouds will stick around through the afternoon, but coverage will be much less widespread compared to yesterday. Night and morning low clouds are expected to stay mostly confined to coastal areas this week, with patchy coverage. Broad ridging is still expected across the southwest this week. Today, the ridge is centered farther east, over New Mexico/Texas. The ridge is expected to strengthen and expand westward Thursday and Friday settling over the Arizona/New Mexico border for Saturday into early next week. High temperatures will start to become above average on Wednesday, peaking at 5 to 10 degrees above average Thursday through the weekend. In addition to above average high temperatures, low temperatures will be running 5 to 10 degrees above average, locally up to 15 degrees above average in the mountains. The combination of elevated high and low temperatures will limit the ability to recover from heat overnight and allow for conditions to quickly warm once the sun rises. Widespread moderate to locally major HeatRisk is expected in inland Orange County, San Diego Valleys, Inland Empire, and area mountains. Major HeatRisk is expected in the deserts, with locally extreme HeatRisk in Coachella Valley and San Diego deserts. Major to extreme HeatRisk indicates that anyone may be negatively impacted by the heat if the proper precautions are not taken. While there will be a minor uptick in monsoonal moisture in the mountains and deserts Thursday and Friday, chances of showers and thunderstorms stay low. Shower chances are mostly 15 to 20 percent, with only a 5 percent chance of thunderstorms developing. Dry conditions are expected over the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... 211800Z....Coast/Valleys...Mainly mid-level clouds AOA 20,000ft MSL with a few low clouds floating around 1,000-1,500ft MSL. Low clouds will redevelop after 08Z Wednesday, pushing inland up to 20 miles, with bases 800-1,200ft MSL. VIS restrictions 3-5SM will be possible where clouds intersect with terrain. Low clouds clear most inland areas by 18Z Wednesday, with a 40 percent chance of low clouds sticking to coastal SD through 20Z. Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. A few mid-level clouds AOA 15,000ft MSL will hang out around the mountains this morning and into the early afternoon, likely clearing out this evening. Gusty westerly winds 20-40 kts along desert slopes and up to 50 kts through the Banning Pass expected this afternoon and evening, 19Z to 07z Wed. && .MARINE... Northwesterly winds with gusts 20-25 kts in the outer waters near San Clemente Island expected both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Additionally, a mixed swell will cause steep and choppy seas Thursday and Friday, especially in the outer waters. && .BEACHES... Southerly swell of 4-5 ft with a period of 11-13 seconds will continue to bring elevated to high surf and strong rip and longshore currents through this evening. Surf 3-6 feet with sets to 7 feet is expected through tonight, with the highest surf focused on south and southwest facing beaches of Orange County. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect until 11 PM tonight. While this current swell diminishes tonight, another elevated southerly swell (4-5 feet, 15 second period) from a tropical cyclone far off the coast is expected to develop Thursday and elevate surf through late Saturday. This would once again bring high surf of 6-8 feet, especially for south-southwest facing beaches. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. Heat Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Monday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains- San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Monday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys. Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Monday for Coachella Valley-San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...CO AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Villafane