####018009651#### FXUS61 KPHI 070251 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 951 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will settle into the area tonight, then move offshore and dissipate on Sunday. A cold front will cross the region and move offshore Sunday night, ushering in arctic high pressure with much colder and drier conditions through Tuesday. Another low pressure and frontal system will impact the region Wednesday, followed by yet another low pressure system late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 9:45 PM, low-level stratus has developed off to our north and west this evening. This cloud cover is slowly sinking southeast. For areas NW of I-95, I did increase cloud cover into tonight given observation trends. For areas south and east of I-95, there is a mainly clear sky and we are already seeing some patchy fog formation. A concern into tonight is freezing fog which is already being observed in parts of Delmarva this evening. Due to the patchy fog being locally dense and the concern for freezing fog, a Special Weather Statement was issued for parts of southern New Jersey and all of Delmarva. Freezing fog could lead to a light glazing of ice on surfaces, especially elevated surfaces. The previous discussion below remains on track: The region will remain under enhanced westerly flow aloft through Sunday with a shortwave axis associated with an upper- low over the Hudson Bay to the northwest of the region and a large scale trough over the eastern half of the Continental US. At the surface, broad high pressure will build in from the west, with a strong cold front beginning to approach western portions of the area by the evening hours. Winds will be light tonight, favoring a westerly or northwesterly direction. Lows look to be in the low to mid 20s outside of the coastal plain and urban corridor, where they should bottom out in the upper 20s to near 30. Widespread mid and high clouds continue to overspread the region on Sunday. Winds will become southwesterly but remain relatively light around 5-10 mph. High temperatures look to be in the mid to upper 30s northwest of the fall line, and the low to mid 40s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The main story for the short term period Sunday night through Tuesday will be the well below normal temperatures (on the order of 15-20 degrees below normal) following a cold frontal passage Sunday night. A split flow pattern will remain in place through early next week, with the main feature of interest being a trough axis passing to our south Monday night. A dry cold front will push through the region Sunday night as low pressure slides off to our northeast, giving way to rather cold and dry arctic high pressure building in from the Great Lakes through Tuesday morning. The high will then shift offshore during the day Tuesday, with some SSW return flow developing later in the day. The trend in a less amplified trough continues, and thus appears the frontal passage should be mostly dry, aside from perhaps some flurries north of I-78. The surface high and subsidence locally looks strong enough to keep the system developing off the Carolina coast suppressed to our southeast. With an overnight frontal passage Sunday night, low temperatures into Monday morning won't be exceptionally cold, and should be mainly from the low to mid 20s (10s for the higher elevations north of I-78). However, wind chills by dawn Monday will be quite cold in the low to mid 10s across the board (as low as 0 degrees across the Pocono Plateau) as northerly winds increase to near 10-15 mph. High temperatures for Monday will be the coldest of this arctic blast, ranging from the mid 20s to mid 30s (low 30s for the I-95 corridor). With the continuing northerly winds near 10-15 mph (gusting up to 25 mph), daytime wind chills will only max out in the mid 10s to mid 20s. The coldest night of the week and likely so far this season for most areas will be Monday night into Tuesday morning. As the high pressure builds in over the area maximizing subsidence, skies should clear out enough to give us decent radiational cooling conditions. Forecast low temperatures range from the single digits near/north of I-78 to the low to mid 10s in most other areas, and closer to 20 degrees for the immediate coastal areas. Fortunately, winds will be light to calm, so the wind chill will not be much of a factor. As the high pressure shifts offshore on Tuesday, we will get into some return flow and airmass modification into the afternoon hours. High temperatures will rebound a few degrees, mainly in the low to mid 30s and closer to 40 degrees near the coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Guidance diverges significantly on solutions to the forecast for the middle to especially end of the week. Overall, temperatures look to remain below normal through the end of the week as a couple low pressure systems impact the region, followed by potential for an arctic outbreak and sustained well below normal temperatures next weekend. It appears we'll have a "warm up" of temperatures closer to normal, but still a few degrees below normal for Wednesday ahead of another frontal system. Forecast highs are in the low to mid 40s and near 50 degrees toward the coast. This system is more likely to bring precipitation to portions of the region, especially near/north of I- 78. Some snow is possible for the higher elevations with rain more likely elsewhere. The precipitation from this system will be insignificant, with primarily some light rainfall and light (a dusting) of snow anticipated at the moment. Following frontal passage Wednesday night or early Thursday, temperatures should fall a few degrees again. The next system will probably impact the region Thursday night or Friday, so we've maintained the chance PoPs for this time frame. Any details with this late week system remain very unclear, as guidance varies widely in the timing, track, and strength of it. As with the Wednesday system, it currently appears to be a relatively quick moving and insignificant system, but there's still time for that to change. While technically outside the current forecast period, it should be noted that an arctic outbreak with well below normal temperatures looks to be on the horizon beginning next weekend. A few consecutive days of temperatures on the order of 10-20 degrees below normal are possible. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...Primarily VFR. West-northwest wind 5 kt or less. Low-level stratus has developed leading to lowering ceilings at mainly KRDG. The potential for lowering ceilings is also possible at KABE. At KABE/KRDG, ceilings are expected to stay VFR. Fog development has also begun at KMIV leading to visibility restrictions. Additional fog development is possible at KACY which could lead to MVFR visibilities overnight. Moderate confidence. Sunday...VFR. Mid and high level clouds increase. Southwesterly wind around 5 kt. High confidence. Outlook... Sunday night through Monday...VFR. Gusty NNW winds developing for Monday following FROPA. Monday night through Tuesday night...VFR. No significant weather. Wednesday through Thursday...Restrictions possible (30-50% chance) in low clouds and rain. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are anticipated through Sunday. West- northwest winds tonight will be 10-15 kt, and become west- southwesterly on Sunday around 10 kt. Seas will be 2-4 feet. Outlook... Sunday night through Monday night...Advisory conditions expected.northerly winds increasing to near 20-30 kts following Sunday overnight FROPA. Some occasional gale force gusts near 35 kts possible. Seas building to 4-6 feet. Tuesday...No marine hazards expected. Wednesday through Thursday...Advisory conditions likely. Winds increasing to near 20-30 kts and seas building 5-8 feet. A chance of rain. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As a result of the Full Moon on December 4th, some spotty minor tidal flooding will be possible during the daytime high tides through this Sunday. This is primarily for the NJ and DE coasts and lower Delaware Bay. No tidal flooding is expected elsewhere. && .CLIMATE... Very cold Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. At this point, we aren't forecasting to break any record lows. Below are the record lows for December 9. SITE RECORD/YEAR Allentown (ABE) 7/2002 AC Airport (ACY) 6/1968 AC Marina (55N) 5/1876 Philadelphia (PHL) 6/1876 Wilmington (ILG) 13/1960 Reading (RDG) 0/1989 Trenton (TTN) 12/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) -1/1902 Georgetown (GED) 10/1976 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Staarmann NEAR TERM...Cooper/Guzzo SHORT TERM...Staarmann LONG TERM...Staarmann AVIATION...Cooper/Guzzo/Staarmann MARINE...Cooper/Staarmann TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE... ####018006627#### FXUS62 KFFC 070252 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 952 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 936 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 - A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for portions of north and central Georgia until 10 AM Sunday morning. - Rainfall totals of 0.10 to 0.40 inch are expected across central and portions of north Georgia through Monday afternoon. - Rain chances (20% to 40%) will return Wednesday night through Friday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 936 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 As cloud cover diminished around sunset and winds have become light at 5 mph or less, strong radiational cooling has allowed for the development of fog in areas south of the I-85 corridor. These conditions, combined with a strong nocturnal inversion, make it likely that the areal extent of this fog will expand as far north as the north Atlanta metro area and to the southwest extent of the forecast area. Dense fog is also already being observed, and is likely to persist through mid-morning on Sunday in any areas where fog develops, warranting the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM on Sunday. More uncertainty remains in portions of east- central Georgia on the potential for fog development, as cloud cover on the north side of the retreating frontal boundary may inhibit its formation. The Dense Fog Advisory does not extend into the far southeast or far north portions of the forecast area, where fog is anticipated to be more patchy. It should also be noted that temperatures in portions of northwest Georgia are cooling slightly faster than previously forecast, and will drop to near or just below freezing, increasing the possibility in patchy freezing fog development in these locations. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 122 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 Current radar imagery shows showers moving more into central GA and should be on their way out of the area by later this afternoon. Moist conditions are expected to hold into the overnight hours with limited dry air movement. Another shortwave moves across the southeast tomorrow surging moisture out ahead in north and central Georgia tonight into tomorrow morning. Near surface light easterly flow, increasing moisture, and some CAA will drive the potential for widespread fog for areas mostly along and south of I20. Visibilities may drop to 1/4 mile or less in some areas and a dense fog advisory may be necessary for central and portions of north Georgia. More patchy fog is also possible in northern GA and may be co-located with temperatures near freezing. Surfaces will likely not be cold enough for any rime icing though there is some potential on the protected slopes in far north Georgia. Low clouds and will likely hold conditions steady late into the morning tomorrow (10/11am). Showers return to the area once again tomorrow evening. No thunderstorms area expected at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Monday morning through next Friday) Issued at 122 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 The mid-/upper-level shortwave trough axis will shift east of the County Warning Area (CWA) on Monday, in turn pushing what remains of the Gulf moisture feed eastward as well. The result will be rain showers -- likely relegated to the eastern half or so of the CWA -- tapering off over the course of the day. The National Blend of Models (NBM) added light snow mixing with rain in the north Georgia mountains on Monday, but I opted to omit any frozen precip as I suspect that the atmospheric profile will be too dry in the mid-/upper-levels and too warm at/near the surface. Tuesday and Wednesday will bring dry, mostly sunny conditions thanks to high pressure and a continental airmass. Wednesday should be a noticeably warmer day than Tuesday, with highs in the mid-50s to lower 60s compared to upper 40s to mid-50s. This warm- up will occur in response to low-/mid-level flow shifting from northerly to westerly in advance of a northern stream shortwave/jet streak that will dive southward and eastward across the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys Wednesday into Thursday. Like the previous long term discussion mentioned, ensemble guidance continues to differ regarding the southern extent of the associated surface low and front, as well as how much moisture will be in place. Have capped PoPs at 30% (analogous to widely scattered showers) Wednesday night through Friday morning given said forecast uncertainty. As the forecast stands now, the end of the long term period could bring quite the cool-down, with Saturday (12/13) morning lows in the mid-20s to lower 30s across much of the CWA. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 657 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 Ceilings have scattered to primarily VFR across north and portions of central GA. Winds will be NW at 3-5 kts to start the evening, becoming light and variable late tonight and into Sunday morning. The combination of clearing skies, increasing moisture, and light winds, widespread fog is anticipated across central GA and portions of north GA including the ATL sites and AHN. LIFR/IFR conditions are likely at all sites by 09-10Z and through 15-16Z before slow improvement begins. Areas of VV02 are possible towards the southeast Sunday morning. Fog is forecast to dissipate and ceilings are forecast to improve to MVFR by 17-18Z. Winds during the daytime Sunday will be E/SE at 3-5 kts. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium confidence on the timing of fog and low ceilings. High confidence on all elements. King && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 31 53 39 52 / 0 10 40 30 Atlanta 35 54 42 52 / 0 10 50 20 Blairsville 29 54 36 46 / 0 10 40 30 Cartersville 30 55 39 52 / 0 10 40 10 Columbus 40 57 44 57 / 10 20 50 10 Gainesville 33 53 41 52 / 0 10 40 30 Macon 38 55 42 56 / 10 10 40 20 Rome 33 57 43 54 / 0 10 30 10 Peachtree City 33 55 41 53 / 0 20 50 10 Vidalia 44 56 45 57 / 30 30 40 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for GAZ020>025-027- 030>039-041>062-066>076-078>084-089>096-102>108. && $$ SHORT TERM...SM LONG TERM....Martin AVIATION...King