####018007319#### FXUS64 KAMA 251840 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 140 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 The dryline was moving east into the western Panhandles early this afternoon. An upper level low was moving northeast toward the 4- corners. Upper level winds where increasing across the Panhandles ahead of this low. The dryline is expected to mix east to near a Guymon to Amarillo line by mid to late afternoon. This is when some thunderstorms may start to develop. At this point, it looks like the central Oklahoma Panhandle and the north-central Texas Panhandle have the best chances of thunderstorms as the strongest dynamics move across the dryline. Further south along the dryline, the cap may hold and we may not see much. More thunderstorms may clip the southeast Texas Panhandle late this evening into the early morning hours of Friday in association with another jet streak. Any thunderstorms this afternoon or tonight may become severe with very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado all possible. .Fire Weather... A red flag warning will continue for the western Panhandles until 9 pm this evening. Strong southwest winds behind the dryline will couple with relative humidty values down around 10 percent to bring critical fire weather conditions. && .LONG TERM ... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Elevated fire weather conditions may return tomorrow (Friday) with critical fire weather conditions possible on Sat, especially across west central to northwestern portions of the combined Panhandle into eastern NM. Early Friday a dryline in the eastern portions of the combined Panhandles should mix into western OK. If this dryline can retreat back into the eastern combined Panhandle s Friday night into Sat morning, some severe thunderstorms may be possible for the far eastern counties in the combined Panhandles Sat afternoon. Pretty much all of the combined Panhandles will be on the dry side of a dryline for Fri, with temperatures in the 80s and RH values falling into the low to mid teens. A secondary H5 low pressure system will be digging down the western CONUS states reintroducing some faster winds aloft (50 to 60 kts) going into Fri evening. Sat, this system is expected to close off and traverse the Four Corners Region with winds aloft increasing even more over the Panhandles to around 70 to 80 kts at H5. Depending on the ability of low level moisture to advect back into the eastern Panhandles with the potential retreating of the dryline, some thunderstorms will be possible for the far eastern counties. Have decreased the NBM PoPs which were around 30 around the TX/OK stateline to around 15 to 20 percent across the far eastern FA. If thunderstorms do occur there could be a chance for a severe thunderstorms. However, most of the deterministic models have the dryline mix back east taking the overall storm potential out of the combined Panhandles and into western OK. This could be an instance where storms pop in the eastern Panhandles and quickly move east before they are able to become severe. Due to the increase in the winds aloft Sat, a second and much strong leeside low is expected to develop over NW NM/SE CO/W OK Panhandle. The pressure gradient and mixing of winds aloft are expected to lead to windier conditions Sat with sustained winds around 30 to 35 mph, and a 40 to 50 percent probability of gust reaching 50 mph across central to western portions of the combined Panhandles. With much of the area expected to be on the dry side of the dryline, min RH values are progged to approach 10 percent as the afternoon highs reach into the 80s. Once again elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible especially for areas not seeing greenup. As the H5 low moves off Sat night, and the surface low with it, a weak cold front is expected to dip into the area bringing northerly winds for Sun. Highs on Sun are expected to be in the upper 60s across the northwestern FA and 70s to the southeast compared to the 80s on Sat. After Sun an H5 ridge is expected to build in over the Great Plains temperatures will rebound into the 80s for Mon and even approach the low 90s for Tue. Tue and beyond there are hits at some possible chances for thunderstorms with perturbations in the ridge coming across the combined Panhandles. Have stuck with the NBM PoPs for now which introduce some 20 to 40 PoPs, from north to south across the FA on Wed. 36 && .Fire Weather... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected once again on Friday with critical fire weather conditions on Saturday. This is especially for western and northwestern parts of the combined Panhandles where moisture has been really limited the past month and fuels remain dormant. RFTIs will be limited to 3 to 6 in the southwest Texas Panhandle on Fri. However, on Sat winds are expected to be stronger with gust potentially as high as 50 mph for much of the central to western Panhandles, to include the northwest where vegetation is much drier and dead still. RFTIs are expected to be around 5 to 7 especially around the Canadian River Valley west of Lake Meredith. Min RH values will be approaching 10 percent both Fri and Sat. 36 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Southerly winds are expected to be around 25 knots with higher gusts this afternoon and early this evening. Winds will then weaken some overnight before they start picking up again after sunrise Friday. Thunderstorm chances are the greatest at GUY late this afternoon and early this evening, so have put a TEMPO group there. Skies are expected remain VFR outside of thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 53 81 52 80 / 10 0 0 0 Beaver OK 52 85 52 85 / 20 0 0 20 Boise City OK 47 80 45 74 / 0 0 0 20 Borger TX 55 86 55 85 / 10 0 0 10 Boys Ranch TX 52 83 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 52 80 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 53 82 52 83 / 20 0 0 10 Dalhart TX 46 80 45 75 / 0 0 0 10 Guymon OK 50 83 48 81 / 10 0 0 10 Hereford TX 51 81 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 55 85 53 85 / 20 0 0 20 Pampa TX 54 83 53 83 / 10 0 0 10 Shamrock TX 53 85 52 84 / 20 0 0 20 Wellington TX 53 85 52 85 / 30 0 0 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006- 007-011-012-016. OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...15