####018003761#### FXUS64 KMAF 162335 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 635 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 631 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 - Isolated to scattered storms expected this evening over western portions of the region. Some storms may produce strong winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding. - An isolated storm or two is possible over the higher terrain Monday afternoon. - Above normal temperatures persist through next week. Some locations will be near or above 100 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 For those who prefer cooler weather, today is your day. WV imagery shows an inverted trough moving west through the Big Bend Area, infringing upon a broad, upper ridge centered over northeast Texas and spanning most of the southern CONUS. Besides producing mainly a shower or two in the Big Bend, the trough has locally lowered thicknesses over the region. This will combine with the ridge offset to the northeast to yield afternoon highs averaging only around 5 F above climatology. there will be a chance of convection mainly over the Marfa Plateau/Davis Mountains, perhaps enhanced by the trough as it moves west through the area. This activity should dissipate early this evening. With a relatively light LLJ and decreased cloud cover, overnight minimums should be similar to this morning's, if not a degree or so cooler, around 5 F above normal. Monday, with the trough forecast to have moved west into Chihuahua, thicknesses begin increasing again, adding a degree or so to this afternoon's highs. Convective chances look lower and farther west than this afternoon. Monday night, the LLJ looks even wimpier, and with little cloud cover, this could be the coolest night this forecast, maybe a degree or so cooler than tonight. Thus, the extended can only be warmer/drier. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 The forecast remains om track for above normal temperatures to continue next week as the upper-level ridge remains dominant over the region. Afternoon highs in the mid 90s to low 100s can be expected each day this work week for most, with the hottest spots ranging from 105 to near 110 along the Rio Grande. We cannot rule out an isolated storm or two over the mountains each afternoon due to upslope flow and diurnal heating. Otherwise, sinking motion under the ridge keeps keeps most dry through the extended. Greening && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 VFR continues for all sites. Winds between 10-15kts sustained with gusts to around 20kts decreasing after sunset. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 72 101 72 101 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 71 98 72 99 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 74 100 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 97 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 67 88 68 90 / 0 10 0 0 Hobbs 69 97 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 60 89 61 91 / 10 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 72 98 72 98 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 72 98 72 98 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 73 99 72 99 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...93 ####018009903#### FXUS61 KPHI 162336 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 736 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Mesoscale convective complex is tracking across Pennsylvania and Maryland, which is being monitored for a possible heavy rain/flooding threat in our region later this evening and overnight. Updated Aviation Section for 00Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A frontal system passes through the region later today and tonight producing widespread showers with localized flash flooding. 2. A trailing mid-level short wave trough and weak cold front lead to the potential for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms on Monday. 3. A cold front is expected to cross through the region Wednesday night into Thursday resulting in more shower and thunderstorm chances. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A frontal system passes through the region later today and tonight producing widespread showers with localized flash flooding. A mid level short wave trough will continue to progress eastward through tonight. A warm front ahead of that low, was over central PA and central NJ as of mid day. That front is expected to progress eastward into our region late this evening into the overnight hours. The focus is on a convective complex that developed over Ohio earlier this afternoon and is making progress eastward across central PA and MD at this hour. Most hi-res guidance continues to show this complex at least clipping portions of our region, mainly across the southern half of our forecast area. As of now, current time of arrival, depicts possibly around the 9 PM timeframe at the earliest. However, by this point, instability will be more limited and continue to wane, so it appears likely that this complex will continue to weaken as it approaches. That being said, we will continue to monitor for the heavy rain and damaging wind threats. With very high PWATs, localized flash flooding is possible due to localized amounts of 1 to 2 inches of rain, despite the convective complex moving through rather quickly. The Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall, which is a 1 out of 4. The Slight risk has been cut back to portions to southeast Pennsylvania west of Philadelphia. The severe threat is fairly minimal, generally focused on Delmarva where the Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for Delmarva and extreme southern New Jersey. KEY MESSAGE 2...A trailing mid-level short wave trough and weak cold front lead to the potential for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms on Monday. The cold front associated with the low that approaches the region on Sunday will finally progress through the region and move offshore on Monday. Additionally, in the the mid-levels, a trailing short wave trough will cross overhead. The net result is that isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible primarily during the afternoon on Monday. As for hazards, this round appears to have very limited threats for both flash flooding and severe weather. Convection on Monday will be much more weakly forced (as compared to Sunday/Sunday night), and bulk shear values are depicted in the 20 to 25 kt range, which is rather modest. Although there will be instability present, the modest shear will limit storm organization. Model soundings still depict relatively high precipitable water values of upwards of 2 inches, and warm cloud layers above 10K ft, which results in some heavy rain threat. However, with limited shear and coverage of convection, the threat for any one area to get heavy rain for long enough to result in flash flooding remains low. For those hoping for a significant cool down in the wake of this cold front, unfortunately the temperature gradient is very small. As such highs on Tuesday will be at or just a degree or two lower than Monday. That being said, the front should usher in drier air, so regardless it should feel more comfortable on Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front is expected to cross through the region Wednesday night into Thursday resulting in more shower and thunderstorm chances. In the wake of Monday night's cold front, weak high pressure will briefly build into the region for Tuesday and much of Wednesday. An upper-low will traverse portions of Ontario and Quebec during this time, passing north of the region Wednesday night. To the south of the upper-low, broad troughing will be in place across much of the Northeast, with a few embedded shortwaves pivoting around the base of the trough. At the surface, a cold front will begin to approach the area late Wednesday, and cross through the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Timing discrepancies remain with the frontal passage amongst model guidance. Some guidance indicates the front passing through the region primarily during the overnight hours Wednesday night and clearing the region Thursday morning, while there is still some guidance to suggest slower timing. At this point, timing uncertainties limit confidence in whether or not there will be any notable severe weather or flash flooding concerns, but this will continue to bear watching, particularly if the slower solutions come to fruition. For now, PoPs peak in the 40-60% range across most of the area on Thursday. There are also some indications that the pattern may remain unsettled into the weekend as the front could get hung up just south of the region with a couple of areas of low pressure riding along it and mid-level troughing remaining in place. PoPs are currently in the 20-40% range each day due to the present uncertainties in timing and placement of these features. In terms of temperatures, Tuesday and Wednesday look to be fairly warm with modestly increasing humidity. Highs look to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Temperatures currently look a bit cooler in the wake of the front, with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s late this week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...A convective complex is expected to approach the region between 01Z-06Z, but be weakening as it does so. At this point, the severe threat appears to be waning, however, cannot rule out a rogue embedded thunderstorm as periods of rain and showers move through the area. Mainly IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are expected as the complex moves through, though some lower ceilings/vsbys are possible in any heavier showers/storms. Behind the complex, some residual showers are expected up until day break. Winds will generally remain out of the south around 5-10 kt before gradually veering and weakening to southwest and west late. Some patchy fog/mist possible at all terminals as well. Moderate-low confidence as a whole. Monday...All remaining IFR/MVFR conditions in the morning are expected to improve to VFR by early afternoon. West-northwest winds around 5-10 kt. Some showers are possible in the afternoon, but confidence is not high enough to include in TAFs at this time. Moderate-high confidence. Outlook... Monday night through Wednesday...VFR. No significant weather expected. Wednesday night through Friday...Periods of scattered showers and perhaps storms are likely, with the greatest chance currently appearing to be late Wednesday night into Thursday. Sub-VFR conditions are possible with any showers or storms. && .MARINE... The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through tonight with wind gusts around 25 kt and seas up to 5 feet. Visibility restrictions are possible in showers and fog. A few thunderstorms possible as well. Once seas subside below 5 ft on the ocean waters Monday Morning, winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria. Outlook... Monday night through Friday...No marine headlines currently anticipated with winds under 25 kts and seas under 5 feet. Scattered showers and perhaps storms could lead to periods of visibility restrictions Wednesday night through Friday. Rip Currents... On Monday, southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph early in the morning will turn to be more west-southwest at 5-10 mph in the afternoon. Breaking waves will average 1 to 2 feet. There will be an increasing southerly swell with a 5 to 7 second period. The result of these conditions is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. For Tuesday, north-northeast winds 5 to 10 mph in the morning will gradually turn to be more southerly at 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Breaking waves will average 1 to 2 feet. There will continue to be a southeasterly swell with a 6 to 8 second period. The result of these conditions is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ430-431. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450>455. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cooper/DeSilva/Guzzo/Johnson/MPS AVIATION...Cooper/DeSilva/Johnson/MPS MARINE...Cooper/Guzzo/Johnson/MPS ####018006785#### FXUS62 KCHS 162337 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 737 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation Section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Heat will remain a concern through the middle of the week. - 2) A few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Heat will remain a concern through the middle of the week. Rest of Today: As amplified ridging remains in place across the Deep South and the Southeastern CONUS, afternoon temperatures will reach into mid to upper 90s with low 90s along the coastline. These temperatures combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s (highest across the coastal counties) yield heat index values in the 105 to 112 range. Thus, a Heat Advisory shall remain across the Lowcountry and southeast Georgia through 8PM EDT this evening. Some afternoon showers and thunderstorms could provide some relief from the heat and possibly short the duration of the Heat Advisory across portions of the area late this afternoon. Monday and Tuesday: Expect hot and humid conditions to continue across the region as large-scale ridging remains in position across the Deep South. These look to be the hottest days of the week with temperatures reaching mid to upper 90s (with some spots peaking around 100-101F). Mixed in CONSShort and NBM for the dewpoints as this setup favors strong mixing across the inland areas and portions east of I-95 as the seabreeze remains somewhat pinned near the coastline in the early afternoon. This will lead to some uncertainty with the maximum heat index values and duration of peak heating hours Monday and Tuesday. An Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for the coastal counties (including inland Berkeley) with a Heat Advisory across the remaining inland counties on Monday from 11Am to 8PM EDT. We will likely need additional heat headlines on Tuesday as well. Wednesday and Thursday: This aforementioned ridge will start to weaken by the mid-week and summertime afternoon convection should make a reappearance. This pattern will likely still favor Heat Advisory conditions prior to shower and thunderstorm development (esp. across the coastal counties) on Wednesday and Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 2: A few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. The heat and humidity discussed in Key Message 1 will also result in moderate instability (SBCAPE 2500-3000+ J/kg) building across the region this afternoon. However, with the subsidence from the upper level ridge, and the lack of flow aloft leading to rather low 0-6km shear, pulse showers and thunderstorms rather than organized convection are expected. Will likely need to wait on the expected afternoon sea-breeze to get the initial round going, with additional development possible on outflow and boundary interactions. Given the very warm environment and expected pulse-like nature, hail seems unlikely. However, with DCAPE values of 700-1000 J/kg and decent low- level lapse rates of 7-8 deg C/km, a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorm gusts cannot be ruled out. The 12Z CHS sounding revealed a PWAT of 2.5 inches, which looks to be a new daily max, and with 2.2-2.5" PWATs spread over the rest of the region locally heavy rainfall may also occur given the weak steering flow. Chances for showers and thunderstorms wane into the evening hours. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 17/00Z TAFs: Showers and storms have now diminished across the area with only light stratiform rain falling at all area terminals. Rain should slowly subside over the next hour or two with VFR conditions prevailing. Expect light and variable winds overnight becoming southwesterly during the morning then turning more southerly by the afternoon as the seabreeze slowly moves inland. VFR conditions should prevail through the day tomorrow. Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions are expected due to afternoon showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. && .MARINE... Rest of today into tonight: Conditions are expected to remain quiet across local waters between the western periphery of an Atlantic high and weak troughing inland, although thunderstorms that develop over land this afternoon could shift offshore into the early evening hours and produce gusty winds. Outside of thunderstorm activity, southerly winds with gust up to 10-15 kt this afternoon and persisting into the evening, before slowly weakening and returning to west/southwest overnight. Seas should be no larger than 2-3 ft. Extended Marine: There will be areas of High pressure in the western Atlantic and the northern Gulf, while surface troughing will persist over the Southeast U.S. The interaction between all of these synoptic features will generate a typical summertime wind pattern. Winds will generally be from the SW, backing a bit each day and veering some each night. The strongest winds should be during the day, especially closer to the coast due to the sea breeze. Seas will mainly be in the 2-3 ft range. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: August 16: KCXM: 97/1954 KSAV: 100/1954 August 17: KCHS: 102/1954 KSAV: 102/1954 August 18: KCHS: 101/1995 KCXM: 97/1995 KSAV: 100/1995 August 19: KCHS: 98/1983 KCXM: 98/1895 KSAV: 99/1900 August 20: KCHS: 97/2005 Record High Minimum Temperatures: August 16: KCHS: 78/2019 KSAV: 78/2019 August 17: KCHS: 80/2017 KSAV: 78/2017 August 18: KCHS: 80/2017 KCXM: 82/2017 KSAV: 78/2010 August 19: KCHS: 79/2010 KCXM: 83/2021 KSAV: 79/1878 August 20: KCHS: 78/2017 KCXM: 82/2017 August 21: KCHS: 79/2010 KCXM: 82/2023 KSAV: 80/1902 August 22: KCHS: 79/2023 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ087-088- 099>101-114-115-137-216>219-238>241. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for GAZ087-088- 099>101-114-115-137-216-218-238. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for GAZ217- 219-239>241. SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ040-042>045- 147>152. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for SCZ040-042>044- 147. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for SCZ045- 148>152. MARINE...None. && $$ APT/Black/Dennis ####018005808#### FXUS65 KTFX 162338 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 538 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and thunderstorms chances continue through Tuesday, with some of the stronger storms producing gusty outflow winds and heavy downpours. - Temperatures near normal through much of the upcoming week. - Gusty winds return from the middle of the work week through the upcoming weekend, which combined with dry conditions will lead to elevated fire weather conditions. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 1151 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: Monsoonal moistures lifting north and east around upper level ridging centered over the Central Rockies through the Desert Southwest will support another day of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across Southwest Montana, with isolated to widely scattered showers and storms over Central and North Central Montana. While showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage through the late evening hours tonight an isolated shower or storm can't be ruled out into the early morning hours on Monday, most notably over the plains of Central and North Central Montana where weak low level frontogenetic forcing will reside throughout the overnight hours. Partly clearing skies beyond midnight tonight combined with recent precipitation and light winds will support another opportunity for patchy fog across the Northern Rockies; most notably in the prone valleys of Central and Southwest Montana. - Moldan By Monday evening the upper-level ridge begins to break down and an upper-level trough begins to move over the area. This will bring breezy conditions to the area with showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will remain near seasonal averages on Monday. On Tuesday there will be zonal flow (west - east) over North- central, Central, and Southwestern. This will allow temperatures to remain near seasonal averages with breezy conditions. There will also be showers and thunderstorms across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Tuesday. On Wednesday and Thursday an upper- level ridge begins to build back in across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Wednesday and Thursday temperatures will remain around seasonal averages. On Wednesday and Thursday it will be mostly dry across the area. On Friday the upper-level ridge is over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring hot and dry weather to the area. On Saturday an upper-level trough begins to move over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring showers and thunderstorms back to the area. Due to strong low-level and mid- level winds it will be breezy on Saturday. -IG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Showers and Thunderstorms through Tuesday... Sufficient shear, but marginal instability, will help to support continued chances for convection through the first half of the upcoming work week as monsoonal moisture continues to lift north and east around broad ridging centered over the Central Rockies and Desert Southwest. Inverted-V soundings and and tall skinny CAPE profiles support the potential for gusty outflow winds and the potential for periods of heavy rainfall, especially across Southwest Montana. Gusty Winds from Wednesday through next Sunday... Increasing zonal to southwesterly flow aloft will support gusty winds, most notably during the afternoon and evening hours, from the middle to the work week through next weekend with the exception of Thursday. These gusty southwest to west surface winds will initially occur along the Rocky Mountain Front on Wednesday, with a 20-30% chance that gusts exceed 35 mph. By Friday NBM5.0 probabilities for wind gusts exceeding 35 mph expand to all areas, with probabilities increasing to between a 20-60% chance for the upcoming weekend. While 35 mph wind gusts are not unusual, let alone noteworthy during the windy season, moderating temperatures and dry conditions will lead to increasing fire weather concerns given these speeds. - Moldan && .AVIATION... 17/00Z TAF Period Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the whole region are moving eastward producing brief strong, gusty winds, cloud to ground lightning, and localized moderate to heavy rain. Most convection will end by 04Z tonight then overnight there is a 40% chance for patchy fog and mist to set up again between 17/09 and 17/16Z in the KWYS area with MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility most likely. VFR conditions are expected throughout the rest of the terminals tonight into the morning. Tomorrow afternoon will see more isolated coverage for thunderstorms mainly for the Northern and Southwestern terminals. For KGTF: Prevailing winds tonight will be light and variable with VFR conditions. Winds will shift to the Northwest after 17/21Z at around 9 KT predominantly. Currently there is only a 10% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. - Akins && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 52 83 54 84 / 20 20 10 20 CTB 48 77 48 79 / 20 20 20 10 HLN 51 84 55 83 / 20 20 20 20 BZN 48 81 50 81 / 50 10 30 20 WYS 35 77 39 76 / 30 30 40 40 DLN 47 80 50 79 / 30 20 30 30 HVR 52 83 51 85 / 20 20 20 10 LWT 50 79 52 79 / 20 20 10 40 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls ####018004657#### FXUS65 KBOI 162339 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 539 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms today and Monday favoring higher terrain, with outflows up to 40 mph and local downpours. - Temperatures near or slightly above normal through mid-week, then further warming expected by late week. - Return of monsoon moisture Friday into the weekend will increase shower and thunderstorm chances once again. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday Night/... Issued 208 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026 An upper level ridge centered over the Intermountain West will maintain warmer and drier conditions across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho through the short term period under southwesterly flow aloft. Mid-level moisture streaming around the western periphery of this ridge will interact with weak instability today, generating isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The highest confidence for storm development today remains focused over the higher terrain of southwest Idaho, including the Owyhee Mountains and West Central Mountains. With low levels remaining quite dry, main threats with today's storms will be localized gusty outflow winds up to 45 mph and brief dry lightning strikes. A weak shortwave trough is shown to move inland across the forecast area on Monday bringing mid-level Pacific moisture. Although this moisture is not as extensive as the monsoonal moisture from the previous couple of days, the incoming dynamic support, combined with daytime heating, should be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm development across the area Monday afternoon and evening. Given the limited low-level moisture, storms are likely to produce gusty outflow winds 35 to 45 mph, along with frequent lightning and little to no rainfall increasing the risk for further fire starts. Another trough passage on Tuesday should briefly suppress the ridge for slightly cooler temperatures, though still above normal and breezy conditions. Cooler air aloft and lingering mid-level moisture will maintain a slight chance of afternoon mountain thunderstorms, mainly over the Central Idaho Mountains, but overall coverage will decrease compared to Monday. Temperatures throughout the short term will remain roughly 5 degrees above seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... Issued 208 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026 As the Desert Southwest upper-level ridge builds Wednesday, temperatures will be near normal under dry conditions. Starting Thursday, flow aloft will be shifting from southwesterly to southerly as a Pacific low pressure system moves closer to shore. This will increase precipitation chances Thursday and further Friday, primarily over higher terrain. Temperatures will become hot Thursday and Friday under this pattern. Late Friday into the weekend, the trough will move onshore and then northeast across the Pacific Northwest states. Showers and thunderstorm chances will persevere as the trough enhances large-scale lift and carries moisture. Several degrees of cooling will be likely for Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday through Tuesday/... Issued 531 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026 Generally VFR with increasing high clouds and isolated showers/thunderstorms this evening. Storms will be most prevalent along higher terrain from KBKE eastward to KMYL and the central mountains of Idaho...as well as south central Idaho. The strongest storms could produce wind gusts to 30 kt, but should dissipate around sunset. Increasing threat of thunderstorms for Monday afternoon area-wide, with isolated to scattered storms in the forecast after 20Z. Surface winds SW to NW 8 to 15 kt, becoming variable less than 10 kt overnight. Increasing from the SW to NW Monday afternoon. Winds aloft above 10kft AGL: SW 15-25 kt. KBOI...VFR. Stray shower possible through 03Z, less than 15% chance. Potential for showers/thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening after 20Z...probability of thunder around 10%. Surface winds NW around 10 kt, becoming SE less than 10 kt overnight. Winds aloft above 10kft ALL: SW 15-25 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....MC SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....CH