####018008082#### FXUS61 KPHI 060824 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 424 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes were made to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms move in this evening as a cold front sweeps through. A Slight Risk (2/5) for severe weather is in place from the I-95 corridor and points north and west with damaging winds as the primary threat. 2. Mainly dry conditions expected through the middle of next week with warming temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and thunderstorms move in this evening as a cold front sweeps through. A Slight Risk (2/5) for severe weather is in place from the I-95 corridor and points north and west with damaging winds as the primary threat. A cold front will move across Pennsylvania and New York through today. The front will encounter a warm and unstable airmass, with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop well off to our west later today. Storms likely will congeal and form a broken line segment or several broken line segments as they move toward our area. The cluster of storms will move into our area later this evening, likely no earlier than 5 to 6 PM over the Lehigh Valley and Southern Poconos. This cluster of storms likely will push through the I-95 corridor between 8 to 11 PM and then offshore by early tomorrow morning. With steep low level lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 degrees C/km, strong downdrafts/gusty winds are likely to accompany some of the thunderstorms. A secondary threat with these storms also is the potential for 1" hail in stronger storms. No real changes to the Severe Weather Outlook, with a Slight Risk (2/5) in place for the I-95 corridor and points north and west. The main failure mode with these storms could be a lack of moisture as the airmass has been quite dry and we don't really have strong moisture advection out ahead of the front. The 00z NAMNest kind of hints at this solution with limited coverage in convection. The timing also isn't favorable for widespread severe weather, especially south and east of the I-95 corridor. Those are two factors to keep in mind after the afternoon and evening goes on. No flooding concerns as QPF amounts generally will be around a tenth to three tenths of an inch with locally higher amounts possible in any thunderstorms. Convection should be fast moving as well. As the initial front goes through, things should dry out pretty quickly. Cannot rule out some patchy fog though in areas that see some rainfall. The drier airmass will hold off until the secondary front passes later on Sunday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry conditions expected through the middle of next week with warming temperatures. The region will remain embedded within a belt of somewhat enhanced mid-level flow through early next week as sharp trough located over New England begins to close off and track slowly eastward away from the region. Thereafter, mid-level ridging will likely begin to take shape across the region through late week. At the surface, a cold front will shift southeastward through the region late Sunday into Monday. In its wake, high pressure will shift into the area, and generally remain in place, though it may begin to break down some by late week. The cold front late Sunday into Monday looks to usher in slightly cooler temperatures, with high temperatures on Monday generally in the upper 70s to low 80s, and temperatures overnight Monday night falling into the low to mid 50s. The cool down does look to be fairly short lived with the high pressure taking shape across the area afterwards. Steady warming is expected Tuesday and beyond, with widespread low 90s by Wednesday and perhaps even mid or upper 90s by late week. In terms of precipitation chances, dry conditions are expected through Tuesday night. Thereafter, as the high pressure breaks down slightly, isolated to scattered, primarily diurnally driven convection will be possible mid-late week. For now, PoPs are generally in the 20-40% range each day Wednesday through Saturday. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12z...VFR. Light winds favoring a south/southwest direction around 5 kt or less. High confidence. Today and Tonight...Primarily VFR. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop off to the west later today and push into our area this evening. Have maintained VCTS at KRDG/KABE from 22z-02z but kept out thunder for the I-95 corridor TAFs. Any thunderstorms, if they make it to the I-95 corridor, would likely be after 00z. It is even more unlikely that any thunderstorms make it to KACY/KMIV, but have added a VCSH category after 03z. Restrictions are likely if a thunderstorm moves over the terminal as well as a brief period of gusty winds. Have around a 30-40% chance of thunderstorms moving over KABE/KRDG between 22z-02z, a 20-30% over KPHL/KILG/KTTN/KPNE between 00z-03z, and around a 15-20% chance over KACY/KMIV. Given the lower probabilities outside of the Lehigh Valley, will keep thunder out of the TAFs at the I-95 and South Jersey terminals but will leave open the chance to add in subsequent updates. Winds will be out of the southwest for today, increasing to around 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt by midday. Moderate confidence in the overall forecast. Outlook... Sunday through Tuesday night...VFR. No significant weather. Wednesday...Primarily VFR. Brief periods of sub-VFR conditions can't be ruled out in isolated to scattered afternoon showers or storms. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions expected through this morning with south/southwest winds around 10-20 kt and seas 2 to 4 feet. For this afternoon and tonight, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for coastal waters north of Great Egg Inlet beginning at 2 PM as winds increase to around 15 to 25 kt out of the southwest and seas get near 5 feet. Lower seas and winds are expected over Delaware Bay and south of Great Egg Inlet, where sub-SCA conditions are expected for this afternoon and tonight. Outlook... Sunday through Wednesday...No marine headlines currently anticipated with winds under 25 kt and seas less than 5 feet. Rip Currents... For today, southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Breaking waves will be 2 to 3 feet with a light easterly swell around 8 seconds. Have maintained a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk at Delaware Beaches. On Sunday, west-northwest winds of 5-15 mph. Breaking waves will be 2-3 feet. There may be an increased south-southeasterly swell around 7-8 seconds. Given the increased swell, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore. There is a LOW risk at Delaware beaches where it currently appears the increased swell will not have as much influence. Ocean water temperatures are generally near 60 degrees for much of the Jersey Shore and the low 60s for Delaware beaches. These chilly water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ450>452. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cooper/Hoeflich AVIATION...Cooper/Hoeflich MARINE...Cooper/Hoeflich ####018004914#### FXUS61 KBGM 060825 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 425 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Removed mention of thunder for the pre-dawn hours. The rest of the forecast package remains on track as newer high-resolution guidance is integrated into the chances for severe weather today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A system tracking to the north of the area will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms today, especially in the late afternoon into the evening. Some of these thunderstorms may become severe with damaging winds and hail. 2) After a brief return to near-normal temperatures on Sunday, another ridging pattern will bring a return to above-normal temperatures for most of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A shortwave on the leading edge of an upper level trough will move into the area around sunrise, which should kick off scattered rain showers with an isolated storm or two mostly north of the Southern Tier, moving east of the area by mid-morning. A few isolated showers may remain over Central NY into the late morning hours. A cold front is forecast to enter into the area from the northwest starting in the early afternoon hours and slowly track to the southeast. This front will trigger scattered rain showers and strong to severe storms through the late evening hours as it slowly progresses through the region. We're seeing ingredients needed for severe weather develop align over the area today as the front moves through. Modeled parameters of up to 1500 J/kg of CAPE, with 30-40 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, and some decent mid-level lapse rates will allow for any storms that are triggered to become severe. However, the ongoing uncertainty of timing of the front is coming to a clearer consensus among models. If severe storms were to develop, the main threats include strong to damaging winds, as well as hail. Even with the potential for morning daytime convection and some scattered rain showers, there should be enough destabilization going into the afternoon hours to allow for a rather uncapped environment heading into the late afternoon/early evening hours, which the consensus for the surface front and trough axis to begin to track into our area, meaning any triggered storms could grow fast into strong to severe storms. Currently, the best chances for severe weather development would be from the Southern Tier south and east into NE PA and the Catskills. Given the likelihood for morning daytime convection and showers in Central NY, confidence for severe storms is a little lower, since this may decrease the time for destabilization for severe weather development. KEY MESSAGE 2... Another ridging pattern is expected to develop Sunday night through Monday, with northerly flow across the region between a ridge to the west and trough to the east keeping temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s across the area on Monday. The trough to our east will slide east Monday night, allowing the ridge axis to move over the region on Tuesday and southwest flow to return, pushing temperatures into the mid to upper 80s. Hot temperatures are currently forecast to continue through the rest of the week, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. We may see some rain showers midweek as a trough tries to move in from the Great Lakes between the departing ridge and another ridge building in the central US, but guidance is too varied at this time for anything other than low confidence in rain showers developing. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least the early portion of this morning. By the mid-morning, some brief MVFR ceilings will be possible from a batch of rain showers, although chances are that most terminals still remain VFR. More widespread MVFR restrictions start to move in by the late afternoon as a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms moves through. If any terminal is impacted by a heavier downpour, brief IFR restrictions will also be possible. That being said, confidence in seeing IFR restrictions is currently too low to include in the TAFs. Most of the rain clears the area by 03Z, but some lingering low ceilings and/or patchy fog will result in some lingering restrictions. Outlook: Sunday...SOme lingering ceiling restrictions possible in the morning, otherwise becoming mainly VFR. Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJG/KL AVIATION...BJG ####018006848#### FXUS63 KLOT 060826 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 326 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and thunderstorm threat this afternoon-evening will focus primarily south of I-80, though showers and a few storms will also be possible near the lake breeze pushing inland. - While there will be daily shower and thunderstorm chances through the upcoming week, expect plenty of dry hours. Outside of the convective chances, it will be very warm and humid (focused away from the lake until Tuesday). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Early This Morning: Scattered thunderstorm development overhead in the pre-dawn hours (as of this writing) is associated with convectively modulated impulses and a glancing blow from a stronger short- wave pushing into the northern Lakes. It's unclear to what extent additional upstream convection from western WI to western/west central IL will push into the area over the next few hours. We'll need to continue to monitor for a few strong to potentially severe storms (wind and hail threat) given fairly steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Today through Sunday: In the wake of the early morning convection, aside from a few lingering isolated to widely scattered storms south of I-80, conditions should dry out areawide for a time. Fairly strong mid-level subsidence and drying, particularly north of I-80, casts doubt on much in the way of renewed PM thunderstorm development with northward extent in the CWA. The possible exception will be near a lake breeze boundary as it pushes inland across the Chicago metro this afternoon. Farther south, primarily south of I-80 (possibly well south), uncapped, moderately to strongly unstable air mass should yield corridors of scattered "airmass" type thunderstorms. With mid-level lapse rates decreasing to 6C/km or less and deep layer shear down to 25 kt or less, overall severe threat appears limited, likely relegated to localized strong to perhaps severe downburst winds. If a corridor of robust convection is able to persist into or through the evening despite modest at best forcing, high PWATs and high freezing levels could support localized flooding (albeit in our typically less flood prone southern areas). Given expectation of increasing sunshine this afternoon, especially with northward extent, look for highs inland of the lake breeze in the mid to upper 80s amidst dew points in the 60s to around 70F. Near the lake, highs will reach the mid 70s to around 80F ahead of the lake breeze and then slowly but steadily fall thereafter. After festering evening storms primarily south of I-80 erode diurnally, there should be a relative lull overnight into Sunday. The lake shadow will extend farther inland on Sunday, confining isolated to widely scattered pulse airmass convection at peak heating to the southwestern 1/3 to 1/2 or so of the CWA. Sub- marginal wind shear and lapse rates suggest severe weather is unlikely. Highs will reach the lower to mid 80s inland, but only upper 60s to lower 70s near the lake. Sunday Night Onward: Weakening mid-upper low/short-wave will shear out on Sunday night into Monday as it encounters robust ridging centered over the eastern Lakes by then. Nonetheless, weakly capped tropics- like airmass should support fairly widespread showers and at least scattered storms developing as early as midday Monday (unless debris cloudiness proves too detrimental to sufficient destabilization). Southeasterly synoptic flow and lake breeze reinforcement will keep IL shoreline locations in the 70s on Monday, while the rest of the area reaches the low-mid 80s. Looking ahead at the rest of next workweek, there have been some guidance members with sufficiently strong mid-level ridging and low-level thermal ridging poking into the Great Lakes region for a few days of very warm (locally hot) and humid conditions. With that said, the more likely scenario is our area being on the precarious northwestern periphery of ridging centered near the East Coast. This should entail less capping and a continuation of shower and thunderstorm chances. By later in the week (Thursday or thereabouts), seasonably strong troughing from the north central US to central Canada could plausibly yield a pattern supportive of organized strong to severe convection into the region. Note that the NBM depicted temperatures centered Tuesday through Friday (most notably on Wednesday and Thursday) are well outside of the ensemble spectrum due to likely spurious upward bias correction. Thus we will withhold from any heat messaging locally. It looks to be very warm and humid, but not hazardously so, per the current global ensemble guidance consensus. Castro && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1153 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Forecast concerns include... Scattered thunderstorms overnight. Chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Wind shift/lake breeze Saturday afternoon. A slowly weakening line of thunderstorms across southern WI will continue moving south along with an outflow boundary, which is expected to move into northern IL in the next hour or so and allow current isolated thunderstorms to expand in coverage and move southeast across the terminals during the early morning hours. Only medium confidence for coverage with increasing confidence for timing and have adjusted tempo timing to 06z-10z but timing may only be a few hours at any one location. There could be lingering showers, perhaps an isolated thunderstorm through daybreak, as the activity weakens and moves southeast of the terminals. A lake breeze is expected to move inland Saturday afternoon, shifting winds easterly for the Chicago terminals. There is a low chance for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to develop along the lake breeze, especially across northwest IN, as it moves inland. Despite low confidence, opted to include prob shower mention for a few hours for this potential. Trends may eventually support the need for prob thunder mention with later forecasts. Southwest winds overnight will turn more westerly later Saturday morning, possibly northwest Saturday afternoon, before shifting easterly behind the lake breeze. Winds are expected to become easterly across most of the area Saturday evening. cms && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago ####018006569#### FXUS64 KHGX 060827 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 327 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and storms are expected today. - High rainfall rates will result in minor flooding of poor drainage areas as well as a risk for isolated flash flooding. - Look for increasing winds/seas/rip current risk along the coast starting today through at least the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 WPC has upgraded portions of Southeast Texas, including the Houston metro area, to a slight risk of excessive rainfall (level 2 of 4) for today. This is due to a combination of Friday's rainfall leaving areas generally along the I-10 corridor fairly saturated and the potential for localized rainfall amounts exceeding 3-4" today. Any rainfall that occurs along or near the I-10 corridor would see a quick transition to runoff, which means street flooding could occur quicker than usual. Members of the 00Z HREF continue to indicate the potential for a localized rainfall maxima exceeding 4" today, but the exact location of where this occurs remains uncertain. The highest probability of occurrence would be near or south of I-10. The HREF has performed fairly well over the past couple of days with highlighting the potential and general location for these localized higher rainfall amounts. With PW values above 2" streaming in as an upper level low further induces lift, rainfall rates will peak in the 3-4" per hour range once again. This could lead to quick bursts of 1-3+" rainfall amounts depending on where the heavy rain sets up. If this occurs around the Houston metro area again, then we would see rises along local bayous/streams in addition to street flooding potential. We'll continue to monitor trends through the morning and into the afternoon, so be sure to remain weather aware and have multiple ways to receive alerts. As far as rivers go, we have our eyes on the San Bernard and the Lavaca/Navidad River basins for rises based on upstream rainfall that has already fallen and today's anticipated rainfall. As of right now, we're only looking at isolated rises into action stage. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/). Batiste && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2026 An weakly closed upper level low is currently transiting northeast through Texas and will open again moving into the Great Plains and that should help reduce the morning convection. However, we still have one more day where we'll have scattered to numerous showers and storms during the day. High resolution short term models are still showing early convection during the morning hours, then transitioning into the more diurnally driven seabreeze/outflow boundary type storms in the afternoon. Plenty of moisture continues to enter the area from the gulf and expecting a similar setup to yesterday where high PW values along with training storms will bring another heavy rainfall threat today. Much of the area has seen widespread amounts of 1-3 inches with localized in excess of 4 inches. Soils are getting fairly saturated and in urban areas already hit will have much of the rain falling as runoff. The hardest hit areas basically have flash flood guidance of less than an inch. Storms will be efficient rainmakers with rainfall rates of 1-3+ inches easily. This will cause street flooding in poor drainage areas, rises in local streams/bayous and some isolated flash flooding. A few points are in action stage so it wouldn't take too much more to push into minor stage. Some relief from the stormy weather will come Sunday. Upper level ridging will begin to build in the western part of the continental US. Unfortunately the trade off on that will be with less cloud cover and rain will have high temperatures build from the upper 80s to low 90s Sunday to the mid to upper 90s by the end of the week. Heat index values will be reaching 105 to 108 by mid week. Another concern for this weekend will be the high risk of rip currents on gulf facing shores. Local beaches have had red flags flying today and will likely continue for the next few days as onshore flow will continue to pile water into the coastal areas. Please heed safety advice if going to the beach this weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Shower and thunderstorm activity is in the process of ending for the evening. Still have a few showers near LBX, but even these should dissipate before sunset. VFR conditions with SCT to BKN mid-level clouds will continue through the evening, but with light winds and moist grounds, I am expected MVFR conditions to begin to emerge around 4-6z with widespread MVFR conditions beginning around 9-11z with CIGs around 1000ft. Cannot out rule some periods of IFR conditions with CIGs down to 700-800ft. These clouds will begin to scatter out through the late morning with VFR conditions returning by 17-19z. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow. The first round of storms may develop as early as sunrise, and then additional pop-up thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon and into the evening (similar to today). Exact locations of the thunderstorms are unknown at this time, so have predominately gone with VCSH with PROB30 of TS for most terminals. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2026 Persistent onshore flow continues for the coastal waters for the rest of this week and much of next week. Winds will remain southeasterly at around 10 to 15 knots but will increase to 15 to 20 knots late tonight into early tomorrow. Small craft exercise caution flags will likely be needed for parts of Sunday into Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 86 75 87 76 / 60 20 30 10 Houston (IAH) 87 77 89 78 / 80 20 40 10 Galveston (GLS) 88 82 88 82 / 50 20 40 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ436>439. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BL AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...BL