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FXUS64 KTSA 191516

AFDTSA



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tulsa OK

1016 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024



...New SHORT TERM...



.SHORT TERM...

(The rest of today )

Issued at 1015 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024



Elevated boundary to the south will keep cloud cover increasing for much

of the day from south to north, though some thinning will be possible 

during the afternoon where morning clouds have remained persistent. 

Will keep the non zero PoP (with no mention in the zone text) for the 

afternoon across far SE OK. Temperatures for the afternoon look good,

especially with a few peeks of sun expected later on. Made a few tweaks 

to sky cover through 18z based on latest trends, so will send a zone update 

to catch any changes to the zone text. Otherwise remaining first period

elements are in line. 



Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly.      



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Tonight through Thursday)

Issued at 402 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024



This evening through tonight a surface boundary is expected to set

up along/near Interstate 40...while at the same time the 850-mb

frontal boundary remains in the region and a shortwave/vort max

approaches. Thus...shower and thunderstorm chances increase along

and south of the surface boundary this evening and become likely 

overnight tonight as the vort max lifts east northeast into the 

region. Again...the greater instability through tonight remains 

south of the Red River and will continue with chance thunder near 

the Red River and slight chance thunder up to the surface 

boundary near I-40. 



Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Saturday and then taper

off Saturday night from northwest to southeast as the weak

shortwave slides through the CWA. Greater thunder chances will

remain along and south of I-40...with rain chances expanding over

Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas as the wave

nears/moves through. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across far

Southeast Oklahoma with this activity. With the movement of the 

shortwave...the surface boundary is expected to slide southeast of

the CWA by early Sunday morning. In the wake of the departing 

wave/boundary...cloud cover is forecast to scatter out with mostly

clear skies by mid/late afternoon Sunday. Rain chances help keep 

temps cool for Saturday...though Sunday into the start of next 

week a warming trend returns. A secondary shortwave is forecast to

move southeast through the region Sunday night...though with 

limited moisture...the passage of this wave is expected to remain 

dry.



Southerly winds return Monday ahead of another cold front progged

to move into the region Tuesday afternoon/evening and exit the CWA

early Wednesday morning. The southern portion of a lead vort max

looks to slide through Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas

Monday night...which combined with increasing warm advection and a

30-40KT low level jet...shower and thunderstorm chances develop

late Monday night into Tuesday. A slight chance of showers and

thunderstorms remain over parts of the CWA Tuesday night into

Wednesday as the frontal boundary crosses the region. 



Additional shower and thunderstorm chances remain for the second

half of the work week...with the greater potential looking toward

the end of the week as another shortwave and frontal boundary

approach from the west. Ahead of the late week wave...gusty

southerly winds return which will aid in the transport of low

level moisture back into the region. Increasing instability during

this time period could create limited severe potentials late week.

This will continue to be monitored over the next several days. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024



MVFR conditions likely through mid morning across portions of 

SE OK/NW AR with ceilings rising to VFR at KMLC in the 15-18Z

range. Mid clouds will begin to increase tonight as upper disturbance

approaches from the west. Areas of light rain will likely develop

after midnight, primarily at KMLC/KFSM with PROB30 thunder group 

added at KMLC.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TUL   68  48  63  45 /   0  20  30  20 

FSM   69  51  60  47 /  10  40  60  30 

MLC   68  52  57  46 /  10  80  70  60 

BVO   66  43  63  42 /   0  10  20  10 

FYV   67  47  60  42 /   0  20  20  20 

BYV   66  47  61  43 /   0  10  20  10 

MKO   68  50  60  46 /   0  40  40  20 

MIO   65  44  62  42 /   0  10  20  10 

F10   67  50  58  46 /   0  50  50  40 

HHW   66  54  56  47 /  10  80  90  80 



&&



.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OK...None.

AR...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...23

LONG TERM....20

AVIATION...12