####018008962#### FXUS63 KJKL 101140 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 740 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot, muggy, and mostly dry weather takes hold for Thursday. Afternoon highs around 90 degrees combined with high humidity will push peak heat indices between 95 and 100 degrees. - A progressive cold front brings widespread showers and numerous thunderstorms on Friday afternoon, with a threat for strong storms and locally heavy rainfall. - High pressure ushers in a brief break of cooler and drier air for Saturday, before unsettled weather and rain chances return Sunday through early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 639 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026 In spite of excellent moisture transport, PWATs near climatological maximums, and favorable conditions for warm layer rain processes, significant rainfall has not materialized as much of guidance had suggested, likely due at least in part to too marginal of forcing. Shower activity is remaining largely confined to far eastern and northeastern Kentucky and has not been particularly heavy, thus the Flood Watch was cancelled early. Today's PoPs and QPF were lowered dramatically with this update. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 308 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026 Muggy and mild conditions persist early this morning across eastern Kentucky with just varying amounts of cloud cover at most locations and patchy fog for others. Temperatures range in the upper 60s to mid 70s, generally at or within a few degrees of the sticky dew points. Regional radar mosaic imagery shows relatively disorganized convection from a remnant MCS extending from Lexington-Mount Sterling northward to Lake Erie, just ahead of a modest 500 hPa vort max and subtle shortwave trough. This is all embedded within a mean ridge over the Eastern CONUS while troughing is amplifying over much of the Western CONUS. Across the Ohio Valley under the aforementioned ridge, PWATs remain near climatological maximums between 1.6 and 1.8 inches across the JKL CWA and are locally over 2.0 inches further north in the vicinity of the MCS remnants. Through the remainder of the morning, model guidance suggests that the MCS remnants and upper level vort max will gradually settle ESE toward the Central Appalachians. Convective coverage and intensity remains a question as overall forcing and elevated instability is rather weak; however, the RAP13 and other guidance does support moderate to strong moisture transport with a low-level 850 hPa jet max of 30 to 35 knots to pass over the northern half of the CWA through daybreak before weakening. If convection is able to maintain, conditions remain favorable for efficient warm rainfall processes amidst skinny CAPE and a highly saturated environment, yielding torrential downpours. Weak Corfidi upshear vectors also suggest the potential for backbuilding as well. This being the case, this system will need to continue to be monitored throughout the morning hours for any significant renewed convective development, strengthening and training rainfall. The Flood Watch remains in effect for much of eastern Kentucky through the remainder of the morning. Once that vort max dives into Virginia and West Virginia by around 14Z, lingering convection will be more sparse as shortwave ridging follows the trough. However, there will still be a few subtle perturbations in the upper levels and they might still be able to spark isolated to widely scattered showers and storms for the afternoon. For this evening and tonight, Eastern Kentucky will be on the northwestern fringe of a surface high pressure over the Southeast CONUS, which should lead to fair skies and radiative conditions favorable for fog formation in the typically favored river valley locales. Looking ahead to Thursday, the warmest temperatures of the new week are expected across the area as 850 hPa temperatures climb to 19-20C. This should support daily maximums not far from 90F, coming within a couple degrees of the days daily record highs. Another vort max dropping from Ohio into West Virginia will brush the northeastern half of the CWA through the day, likely leading to a period of greater cloud cover and low chances for convection (isolated to perhaps scattered at best). The shading from the increased cloud cover plus any precipitation also lend credence to the idea that temperatures will remain below the daily records. In sensible weather terms, the very warm and muggy weather pattern will continue through the short-term period. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be most prevalent this morning, primarily northeast of US-421. Some of this activity could produce torrential downpours and the possibility of flooding where rainfall is most persistent. Rain chances diminish and depart during the afternoon, leaving increasing amounts of sunshine and sultry highs in the mid 80s for most. For tonight, it will be partly cloudy and continued muggy with lows ranging in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Looking ahead to Thursday, it will be a little hotter with highs in the upper 80s to around 90F. A few widely scattered or isolated thunderstorms are possible as well primarily east of I-75, but even so most locations should stay rain-free. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 332 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026 A quick look at the 500-mb heights reveal ridging located over the Lower Great Lakes and portions of Southern Quebec at the start of the period. Upstream to the west, low pressure is occluding over Eastern Manitoba. The system's cold front extends through the Upper Great Lakes across the Upper Midwest and into the Central Plains. Meanwhile, southerly flow around the western periphery of a broad area of high pressure centered over the Central Atlantic will reinforce rich moisture over the eastern third of CONUS. Dew points ahead of the cold front will remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s over eastern Kentucky. Shower and storm chances should generally remain minimal Thursday night (under 15%) into early Friday morning. By 12Z Friday the Upper Midwestern cold front will have advanced to near the Lower Ohio River. Widespread showers and numerous thunderstorms are expected to occur Friday afternoon across eastern Kentucky with the passage of the cold front. Models depict a moist and unstable environment ahead and along the cold front, with dew points in the lower to mid 70s, PWATS around 1.8-1.9 inches, and MUCAPE nearing 2500 to 3000 J/kg. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the frontal passage, though the system will be progressive, so that should keep any flooding threat isolated. Quick clearing behind the cold front should allow for fog to form in the river valleys Friday night. On Saturday, the cold front keeps progressing into the Southeast, leaving mostly clear skies, dry conditions and light northerly winds in its wake. A second cold front will approach the JKL CWA out of the northwest early next week and lead to increasing clouds at first, followed by renewed shower and storm chances. With ample moisture feeding northward around an area of high pressure in the eastern Gulf, shower and storm chances return for Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures through the extended period look to remain in the mid 80s through Sunday, before the second cold front results in cooler highs in the mid 70s to low 80s Monday and Tuesday. Low temperatures remain elevated Thursday night, settling into the upper 60s to mid 70s. With a frontal passage Friday afternoon, Friday night's low temperatures are poised to be 10 degrees cooler. These cooler low temperatures persist for the remainder of the extended forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026 Showers and thunderstorms continue to affect far northeastern Kentucky, mainly northeast of a SYM to SJS line at TAF issuance. Otherwise, variable cloud cover of the VFR variety was noted. Some worsening in the ceilings is possible over the next few hours at SJS, SYM, and IOB near the ongoing convection. Otherwise, quieter weather is expected further south and west with any ceilings generally staying above MVFR thresholds. Sustained winds will be around 10 kts or less through the period, though a few brief gusts to between 10 and 20 kts are possible late this morning and afternoon. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEERTSON SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...GINNICK/GEERTSON AVIATION...GEERTSON ####018004761#### FXUS63 KABR 101141 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 641 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Marginal Risk, level 1 out of 5, for isolated severe storms over the eastern portions of Big Stone and Traverse Counties in Minnesota. Main threats include large hail, one inch in diameter, and 60 mph wind gusts. - Cooler temperatures arrive for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Highs beginning Thursday will be in the mid 70s, near- normal to just below normal for this time of year. && .UPDATE... Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 The aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAFS. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 As of 2am, the line of shower and thunderstorms continue along and east of the Sisseton Hills tracking east/northeast at about 40 mph. Wind gusts between 70-90 mph were reported across the CWA, with the highest wind gusts near Altamont shortly before 1am. There were also several funnel cloud spottings over Pierre as well as wind damage reports over portions of east central SD. Wake low pushing through behind the line of storms over portions of northeastern SD as gusts have been between 45-55 mph within the post stratiform rain. Due to this, issued a short fuse Wind Advisory for Roberts/Grant/Deuel through 08Z. By 12Z, the cold front will extend north to south along the Sisseton Hills with the negative tilted shortwave's axis extending from southeastern MT through northwestern NE. Embedded shortwave energy looks to bring the chance of elevated spotty convection over north central SD into ND this morning where it will track east/northeast over portions of northeastern SD into western MN late morning and through this afternoon per CAMs. Much of the better instability will lie east of our CWA closer to the front and low. However, a few storms could become severe over the far portions of west central MN per HRRR. Therefore, the SPC has a Marginal Risk, level 1 out of 5, for isolated severe storms over the eastern portions of Big Stone and Traverse Counties in Minnesota this afternoon. Main threats include large hail, one inch in diameter, and 60 mph wind gusts. Instability will be weak for this area with CAPE between 1000- 1500j/kg midday through the early afternoon and diminishing to 500 j/kg or lower by by the late afternoon. Any lingering storms will be out of the CWA by this evening. Additional energy may bring spotty rain showers (possibly a rumble of thunder) over central SD overnight with pops 25% or less. No severe weather expected. Through Thursday a closed low develops and will track across Canada/Northern Plains with another shortwave moving across the Central and Northern Plains through early Friday. A surface low developing out of Colorado and tracking into the Central Plains along with embedded energy aloft over MT/ND/SD (and cold front) will both bring additional chances of rain (weak thunderstorms) over the CWA Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. Again, no severe weather expected. Gusty winds expected by the afternoon with potential gusts of 30 to 45 mph, highest over central SD. Luckily a period of dry conditions move in Thursday evening through Friday. Overall dry for the weekend with the exception of areas along and west of the Mo River Saturday night through Sunday night that could see additional light moisture. Cooler air moves in behind the cold front with highs in the 70s to the lower 80s west of the Sisseton Hills (still could reach the mid 80s east of here). Overnight lows in the 50s with much cooler highs for Thursday in the 70s. Warmup Friday back in the 80s and behind the cold front highs for the weekend will be much cooler about 5-10 degrees below average. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected to remain the prevailing conditions at all terminals through this forecast set. Increasing west to northwest winds will range between 20-30 kts by late morning through the afternoon. Best chance to see any precipitation will be at KMBG this morning with -SHRAs through mid morning. Although, this activity is expected to spread each by late morning into the afternoon, wasn't as confident in including mention of this at KABR/KATY at this time. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Vipond DISCUSSION...MMM AVIATION...Vipond ####018007016#### FXUS61 KBTV 101141 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 741 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 248 AM EDT Wednesday... A Heat Advisory has been issued for heat indices in the low to mid 90s in the Champlain Valley on Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 248 AM EDT Wednesday... 1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms each day through Friday. 2. Building heat and humidity through Friday. Heat Advisory in effect for the Champlain Valley 12-8 PM Friday. 3. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Sunday with temperatures cooling towards normal early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 248 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: After a few dry days with ridging in control, a northern stream shortwave will move into our area from the west today. This will dampen the ridge and bring a return to unsettled and showery conditions that will last through Friday. At least chances of showers are possible each day, especially in the afternoons when instability will be the greatest. The two windows of greatest coverage of showers/thunderstorms will be this afternoon (Wednesday afternoon) and again on Friday afternoon/evening. Gulf moisture wrapping up and around western Atlantic high pressure will bring PWats to near 2.0 inch and dewpoints near 70 today. The resultant building instability will support the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as the shortwave moves in. Lack of deep shear and relatively weak wind fields will limit severe potential today, though locally moderate to briefly heavy downpours are possible today in any thunderstorms that do materialize. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday as a front sweeps through from west to east during the late afternoon/evening hours. Ahead of the front, temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s with dewpoints upper 60s/low 70s will result in impressive instability of potentially over 2500 J/kg. Given this environment, some thunderstorms are likely to materialize as the front sweeps through. However, better shear will be displaced to the west, so at this point things don't look to be fully ideally lined up for severe storms. KEY MESSAGE 2: Seasonal temperatures today will warm through the end of the work week, with heat and humidity becoming a concern especially on Friday. 925 mb temps will warm to 20-25 deg C each afternoon, which suggests surface temps in the upper 80s to near 90 Thursday and Friday. Given the unsettled pattern however, with numerous shortwaves moving through and the potential for clouds and showers, have continued the trend of a more conservative high temperature forecast than suggested by the NBM. Our forecast high temperatures for Thursday range through the 80s...warmest in the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys. Though these temps are just slightly higher than seasonal norms, building humidity with dewpoints approaching 70 will increase heat impacts. Heat indices Thursday will be in the mid 80s to low 90s. Overnight temperatures Thursday night into Friday will be quite warm as well, with lows in the mid 60s to around 70. Friday will be the warmest day of the week, and a Heat Advisory is in effect for Friday from 12-8 PM for much of the Champlain Valley, where heat indices will be in the low to mid 90s. Just how warm temperatures will get on Friday will depend on timing of the front later in the day and the evolution of associated cloud cover and showers/thunderstorms. There is the potential heat indices could cap just below Advisory criteria if showers/tstorms start earlier, but NWS HeatRisk suggests at least a moderate to potentially major risk of heat-related impacts. Given the warm low temperatures from Thursday night, Friday will already start off on the warmer side. This will in turn increase heat impacts for vulnerable populations, and those sensitive to heat along with anyone with outdoor plans on Friday should take precautions for the heat. Temperatures Saturday will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s, but dewpoints will be much lower and thus conditions will feel much less muggy over the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 3: Mean longwave troughing is highly favored to become established across east-central Canada by Sunday with upper level flow over Vermont and northern New York becoming increasingly zonal. Model consensus shows a front moving rapidly through Sunday bringing showers and the potential for a few thunderstorms. While cold air advection will be limited, temperatures will cool early next week behind the wave. Highs for Sunday are expected to range from the upper 70s to lower 80s for most locations, but will not feel as oppressive with dew points in the 50s. Broad cyclonic flow aloft will keep shower chances ongoing Tuesday through mid week as another trough moves towards the region late in the week. The silver lining will be that temperatures continue their cooling trend back into the 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12Z Thursday...Chances for showers increase as low pressure tracks through southern Canada pushing a weak front through the region. While the front is not supported by a strong thermal gradient, height falls will be sufficient to increase chances of thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening hours. Given forecast atmospheric soundings show instability extending the depth of the troposphere, some showers/thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall. Should a thunderstorm move directly over a terminal, IFR VIS/CIGs will be possible. Moisture lingers after 00Z supporting lowering CIGs with potential for widespread IFR after 03-06Z. Some LLWS will be possible late in the forecast period but more localized to MSS and SLK from 00-06Z. Outlook... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: June 12: KMPV: 88/2017 KMSS: 89/2005 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 12: KBTV: 71/2017 KPBG: 67/2017 KSLK: 62/1996 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for VTZ001-002-005- 009-011. NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ028-035. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Duell DISCUSSION...Duell/Boyd AVIATION...Boyd CLIMATE...NWS BTV ####018004367#### FXUS62 KCAE 101141 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 741 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Syntax correction. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Isolated showers or thunderstorms today and Thursday, with better rain chances Friday into the weekend in a typical summertime pattern. - 2. Temperatures warming to well above normal over the next few days will bring a period of dangerously hot temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Isolated showers or thunderstorms today and Thursday, with better rain chances Friday into the weekend in a typical summertime pattern. Offshore surface high pressure will generally be in control over the next 24-48 hours, and will likely limit our convective coverage despite ample moisture and strong heating. PWAT values at 110-130% of normal and surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will lead to partly to mostly cloudy skies. Strong heating should lead to a few showers or thunderstorms with model soundings showing up to around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE in the afternoon. However, overall upper support will be limited through Thursday given high pressure and upper ridging in place. CAM solutions early this morning are showing a line of convection developing across NC and progressing southeastward toward the northern Midlands and Pee Dee region late this afternoon, however it appears much of any activity will be dissipating quickly as is approaches the forecast area past our peak heating of the day. Friday into this weekend, high pressure weakens and additional moisture is reinforced, with PWAT values over 1.75". Model soundings indicate better instability of over 1500 J/kg SBCAPE, while upper level dynamics strengthen particularly Saturday and Sunday, leading to increasing confidence in better convective coverage. Early thoughts gleaned from ensemble patterns and IVT forecasts are that the active pattern with above normal moisture will persist into next week. Key Message 2: Warming temperatures during the mid to late week time frame may lead to a period of dangerously hot temperatures. Anomalously strong ridging remains over the eastern seaboard for the next several days, with 850 mb temperatures near 20C, or about 4-6C above normal. This should bring well above normal high temperatures to the area Thursday through the weekend, generally reaching the mid to upper 90s with a few locations breaking into triple digits on Friday. At the same time, moisture remains entrenched over the region, and surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s (a few spots in the low 70s) each day. The combination of heat and humidity is expected to result in Heat Index values reaching the into the 100s Thursday through Saturday, but especially Friday, when values could be closer to 105. Additionally the experimental Heat Risk will be reaching the Major category (3 out of 4 level) for a majority of the forecast area both Friday and Saturday. Although Heat Index values would be just shy of reaching criteria for a Heat Advisory (108 F), we continue to evaluate the need for headlines with this being the first big heat wave of the year. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR Conditions Expected with brief restrictions possible at OGB/AGS. Few changes to the TAFs this cycle as high pressure and quiet weather remain in place across the area. Convection continues to be common across the OH and TN Valley region, which has been (and continues to do so) yielding high base cloud debris across our area. The day ahead looks quite similar to what it has the past few days. Some brief ground fog may impact AGS/OGB as they're prone to ground fog. Otherwise, isolated showers/storms are possible this afternoon and evening across the area. Left over clouds from that are expected to diminish overnight. Winds should be south or southwesterly today. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated to widely scattered diurnal showers and storms possible each afternoon this week into the weekend. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EC AVIATION...PL ####018004726#### FXUS63 KEAX 101142 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 642 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary concerns, but can't rule out the possibility of tornadoes. * Enhanced Risk for severe weather again Thursday afternoon and early evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible. * Another round of precipitation this weekend, then much cooler next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 The complex of thunderstorms tracking east across KS late last evening has dissipated. Additional scattered showers across NE associated with a weak shortwave trough may build southeast this morning to northwest MO before growing into another thunderstorm complex across southern IA. No severe weather is expected with that round. The main concern today will be as a surface cold front sinks south into northern MO and northeast KS. Steep mid level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km will overspread a hot and very moist airmass characterized by pwats around 2 inches this afternoon. Any capping will break by mid afternoon (3-4 PM) and scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop along and just ahead of the cold front. SBCAPE in excess of 3500 J/kg and deep layer shear of 35-40 kts will be supportive large hail and damaging winds. Very large hail is possible if storms can remain somewhat discrete. Most of the CAMs tend to develop a broken line of storms within an hour or two of initiation which would limit the high end hail potential. Another concern is heavy rainfall. MBE velocities are southeast 20-30 kts and CAMs remain progressive. However, 1- and 3-hour flash flood guidance are 1 and 1.5 inches, respectively. Given the moisture-laden airmass in place and the efficient rain producing storms, considered a Flood Watch. Decided to hold off for now given the progressive nature of the activity, but if there are increasing signs of renewed development along the stalling front this evening and tonight then it will need to be reconsidered. This is a possibility given the development of a 50 kt LLJ across eastern KS. The limiting factor will be a stabilizing atmosphere below 10 kft. Highs today will reach the mid 80s to lower 90s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Should fall short of Heat Advisory criteria of 105+ heat indices. An area of low pressure over central KS early Thursday morning will track northeast across IA to southern WI by afternoon. A complex of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early morning across IA and possibly northern MO. The passage of the low will accelerate the cold front's southern progression throughout the day. Thunderstorms will redevelop along it Thursday afternoon from eastern KS through northern MO. Similar to today's threats, large hail and damaging winds are most probable, with a tornado or two also possible. Activity should be exiting to the southeast by Thursday evening. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 High pressure will build south Thursday night and Friday. A much cooler and drier airmass will advance in, but will be short-lived. Return flow begins Friday night and by Saturday dew points return to the 70s. PoPs increase through the day Saturday as a warm front approaches from the west, then maximizes Saturday night as another cold front sags south. Pwats north of 1.75 inches and widespread showers and storms will keep soils saturated. There is a risk of flash flooding, especially if repeated thunderstorms impact a particular area. Cooler air will return for the rest of the period with low chances for showers and storms thanks to the passage of several short waves into early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 Scattered TS near the TAF sites early this morning will continue to develop through mid morning before a short lull into early afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, additional scattered to numerous TS will develop and will continue into early evening. VFR through the period outside of any TS. South southwest winds will increase this morning with gusts of 30-35 kts this afternoon. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Borghoff LONG TERM...Borghoff AVIATION...Borghoff ####018003520#### FXUS64 KJAN 101142 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 642 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat stress is likely Friday through Sunday. - Showers and storms will increase across the area early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 Through tonight: hotter with very little chance for rain through the period. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a 593dam high centered just to our southwest. This feature will remain in place through tonight but weaken slightly. Latest surface analysis had a >1016mb ridge nosing west across the Gulf coast states. This feature will shift south with its axis becoming nearly along the Gulf coast by sunrise Thursday. The resulting low level southerly flow will maintain our warm moist airmass. There will be plenty of insolation today but, the ridging aloft should hinder convection and limit rain chances. As temperatures climb into the 90s this afternoon peak heat index values will be in the upper 90s at most locations but, in our west along the Mississippi river peak heat index values will be in the lower 100s again. Little change from the past several nights is expected tonight as temperatures bottom out above normal again and patchy light fog will be possible toward sunrise in the southeast. /22/ Thursday Night through Midweek... Rain chances will start to increase heading into Friday (though most areas likely remain dry) as a cold front approaches the area, likely stalling along or near the highway 82 corridor. Rain chances with this activity will likely be more isolated than scattered most afternoons with only a gradual increase in rain chances by Sunday. High temperatures will remain in the middle 90s F through the weekend with humidity slowly ticking up as dewpoints rise into the middle 70s F during peak daytime heating. This suggest dangerous heat will be the primary focus for hazards through this weekend. Heat indices will likely peak around 105 F for most areas, slightly below for northeastern Mississippi. For this reason, a heat outlook (Limited) was prepared for much of the area valid each afternoon/early evening Friday through Sunday. We likely won't see much relief in terms of humidity until perhaps mid-week next week when a frontal boundary could manage to sneak down toward the coast. It will bring with it an increase in showers and a few afternoon thunderstorms perhaps by Monday afternoon into Tuesday with improving conditions by the end of the period should it manage to slide south of the area. /86/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 IFR/LIFR conditions wl continue in the SE until after 1330Z before improving. Otherwise, VFR conditions wl prevail areawide through the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 93 73 94 75 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 94 73 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 93 75 94 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 93 71 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 94 74 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 93 76 95 77 / 0 0 0 10 Greenwood 94 75 95 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/LP/22