####018004137#### FXUS65 KREV 230852 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 152 AM PDT Tue Apr 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and more active weather arrives today and persists through the end of the week into the weekend. The potential for showers and thunderstorms returns each day through the end of the week. Be aware of rapidly changing conditions if recreating outdoors through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Over the next few days, the large scale pattern is in transition from a ridge to a trough. An upper level wave ahead of the main trough is projected to swing across northern CA through the day and kick off showers and thunderstorms along its path. Blended guidance and HREF in good alignment with 25-40% chances of showers and thunderstorms from the Tahoe Basin northward into Lassen and Washoe counties. There may be a shower or two that kicks off into western NV through the afternoon, but the best ingredients (moisture, instability, and forcing) for stronger, more organized storms will be from the Tahoe Basin northward into NE CA. Showers will kick off earlier than yesterday with DESI indicating some showers as early as 10AM near the Tahoe Basin. If outdoors this week, keep an eye out for rapidly changing conditions along with potential for thunder/lightning, gusty outflow winds, and rain/pellet showers. Late this evening into early Wednesday morning, another upper level wave sweeps across Mono and Mineral counties producing scattered to widespread showers. Plan on seeing some light snow accumulation for elevations above 9000 feet. Precipitation will continue across the Sierra and western NV as the main trough traverses eastward across southern CA and NV through Thursday afternoon. Thursday afternoon into Friday another trough (from the Pac NW) brings the next round of precipitation and an increase in the winds for the region. While other days this week will be typically breezy, Thursday will have the strongest wind gust potential as the upper level winds briefly align with the surface winds to produce enhanced west to southwest winds that will abruptly shift to northerly winds late Friday. The trough on Friday will bring snow levels a touch lower with potential for snow down to around 6-7k feet from Thursday night into early Saturday morning. Most of the heavier precipitation will wrap up Saturday morning with only lingering showers Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be quite a bit colder late this week and into the weekend, with high temps only reaching around 60-65 degrees on Friday for the lower valleys. While temperatures are projected to warm slowly over the weekend, it will still be quite a bit cooler compared to last weekend. I'll most likely be swapping out my layers of sunscreen for a light long sleeve and a cozy sweatshirt for the weekend ahead. -Edan && .AVIATION... Intermittent cloud cover early this morning from a few showers may limit fog formation at KTRK this morning, but can't rule out a bit of patchy fog for a couple of hours right around sunrise. For the rest of the terminals, generally VFR conditions are forecast through 18z today. More active weather arrives after 18z today, and it will remain more unsettled for the rest of the week and into the start of the weekend. An upper level wave will kick off showers and thunderstorms from KTVL northward to the OR border today with a 20-30% chance of a storm impacting KTRK/KTVL/KAAT. Wednesday the shower/storm potential shifts south with 20-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms at KMMH and KHTH. Shower and thunderstorm potential will stick around from Wednesday into early Saturday morning. Possible impacts due to stronger storms include: rapid wind shifts from gusty outflow winds, localized heavier rain/pellet showers, and lightning. -Edan && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$ ####018005308#### FXUS63 KICT 230852 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 352 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periodic storm chances to begin Wednesday night and last through Sunday with strong to severe storms possible. - Storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning may be strong with small hail the main concern. - Severe storms are possible along and west of I-135 late Thursday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Zonal upper flow is present across the central plains this morning with a weak front/trough at the surface sliding southward across Kansas. Modest moisture continues to pile up on this boundary, and isolated showers and storms will be possible across far eastern Kansas through the morning hours as the trough progresses southward. Despite northeast winds, slightly above normal temperatures are expected this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 70s. The aforementioned boundary and the associated mid-level baroclinic zone should stall out across central Oklahoma on Wednesday. Mid- level moisture transport should increase Wednesday afternoon and evening, and this should help to trigger scattered showers and storms across much of Oklahoma. Gradually, the mid-level baroclinic zone will drift northeastward, and scattered showers and storms will accompany it as they moves into southern and eastern Kansas overnight Wednesday through Thursday morning. Modest elevated instability and shear may be able to support strong storms capable of producing small hail. However, this area of elevated storms will likely be progressive and move quickly into northeast Kansas and Missouri during the day on Thursday. Meanwhile, the start of our active weather pattern is expected to begin Thursday afternoon as a potent western CONUS trough ejects into the central plains. Before delving into the details, it should be noted that forecast confidence remains somewhat low. That being said, a dryline is anticipated to reside across western Kansas and the OK/TX Panhandles late Thursday afternoon. Synoptic lift and mid- level cooling should help to erode the cap, and isolated to widely scattered storms are anticipated to develop across western Kansas and move eastward during the evening hours. However, CIN is expected to develop after dark, and these storms will struggle to get into the forecast area Thursday evening. Nevertheless, as the Pacific front merges with the dryline, additional storms are progged to develop and move eastward into portions of central and south-central Kansas late Thursday night. Storm mode will likely be mixed to linear, damaging winds and large hail will be the primary concerns for locations along and west of the I-135 corridor. As mentioned previously, models have been a bit more progressive with the dryline/Pacific front on Friday, and probabilities for severe weather appear to be shifting eastward as a result. While the parameter space does support organized storms, most likely in the form of supercells, height rises overspreading the warm sector during the afternoon hours will make it may be difficult for storms to develop along and east of the Flint Hills. To further complicate the forecast, Saturday is likely entirely dependent on what occurs on Friday, but long range models are signaling a second trough ejecting into the plains during the afternoon hours. Assuming low- level moisture recovers, another round of severe weather is possible across Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Rain chances are expected to end by Sunday as moisture is swept eastward into the Ozarks and Lower Midwest, but low storm chances are still possible across far southeast Kansas early. There are still a number of details that need to be hashed out over the next few days, so stay tuned for updates to the forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Main aviation concern will be a wind shift to move through today. Currently have a cold front extending from central IA into northwest KS. This feature is expected to continue pushing southeast today and will flip winds around to the north behind it. It is expected to move through KRSL-KGBD in the 13-15z time frame and KICT-KHUT in the 15-17z time frame. Right behind the front there will be a brief period of wind gusts around 40 mph, which will only last a couple hours before decreasing. Confidence remains high that VFR conditions will remain in place through the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Today: Breezy northeast winds will support a brief period of very high grassland fire danger during the afternoon hours across portions of Russell and Barton Counties. Friday: Much drier air and gusty southwest winds will support very high grassland fire danger across portions of central and south-central Kansas during the afternoon hours. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...RBL FIRE WEATHER...JC