####018006926#### FXUS63 KJKL 211755 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 155 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rounds of shower and thunderstorms are anticipated over the next seven days, including the holiday weekend. - The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least temporary relief from drought conditions. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1123 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026 Areas of light rain across the CWA should gradually taper from the northwest from mid-afternoon through the evening as a frontal boundary, draped over southeastern Kentucky late this morning, finally sags southward. Temperatures shouldn't move more than about 2 to 5 degrees through the remainder of the day. UPDATE Issued at 742 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026 Made a quick update to hourly T/Tds based on latest observations. Otherwise, there are no changes to the forecast. UPDATE Issued at 459 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026 Updated PoPs through the remainder of this morning based on the latest model trends. Also removed mention of thunder from the grids until after dawn Friday based on continued model trends and the expected thermodynamic environment across the area through that time. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026 A strongly sheared shortwave disturbance will slowly advance east and northeast across the Upper Tennessee, southeastern Ohio River Valley through late this evening, and then exit east across the Central Appalachians ahead of shortwave ridging over the Ohio River Valley late tonight into early Friday. A more amplified shortwave disturbance extending from the center of the country into the Deep South then moves northeast across TN and Ohio Valleys through the day Friday. At the surface, a cold front stalls over far southeastern Kentucky later today and tonight before moving back north as a warm front Friday with the aforementioned trailing shortwave crossing the area. For today, a fairly widespread rain will move gradually east in association with the sheared shortwave that will make very slow eastward progression within the southwesterly flow aloft, while weak cold advection with light north and northeast winds keep a steady push of cooler air into the area to the north of the cold front. The result will be a mostly dreary day along and north of the cold front with low clouds and periods of rain/showers, with some gradual improvement in skies from the northwest as the shortwave advances east later today into tonight. To the south of the front, sufficient weak instability will exist such that any partial clearing and heating may be enough to fire off a few thunderstorms, so areas south of the KY Highway 80 corridor will be most likely to see a storm today. The trailing shortwave arrives Friday and brings a deep fetch of warm air and moisture from the Gulf. As the warm front lifts north across the area, the warm front will pivot from a west-east direction over eastern Kentucky to a north-south direction, with drier air on the east side owing to some weak downsloping across far eastern Kentucky. However, to the west and south of the warm front, sufficient yet weak instability and shear may exist for a stronger thunderstorm over parts of the area, and the SPC has placed a Marginal Risk for Friday in its Day 2 Convective Outlook for mainly central into parts of northeastern Kentucky, with the primary severe weather threats being isolated damaging winds and a brief weak tornado or two. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026 The long wave pattern will remain amplified and stagnant through the middle of next week. An upper level ridge will remain anchored from north of the Bahamas into the southeastern CONUS and Gulf. Broad troughing will reign over the central CONUS through the first part of the holiday weekend, before deeper troughing moves into the western Conus from the eastern Pacific, and a closed low moves onshore over the West Coast early next week. As the weekend ends, the northern portion of the Central Canadian to Central Conus trough moves east northeast into the Great Lakes passing north of the OH River. Downstream, either a REX block emerges, or at least sharper ridging becomes aligned from south central Canada through the Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, and into the Southeast. At the same time the southern portion of this trough should close off over eastern TX before opening up and drawn north across sections of the Central Conus as the upper trough over the western Conus approaches the High plains. For eastern Kentucky, the wetter pattern will continue into early next week, combatting the ongoing drought conditions across the Commonwealth. Some isolated flash flooding will also be possible at times, but only if locations see repeated rounds of more significant rainfall, given the well below normal streamflows currently seen across the area. On Friday night, widespread showers, along with isolated to scattered thunderstorms should remain prevalent as a short wave trough moves northeast from the middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, low pressure will deepen and follow suit, gradually escorting a warm front back north of eastern Kentucky through early Saturday. Widespread PoPs will continue on Saturday, as the aforementioned surface low's cold front creeps southeast towards our area. There remains uncertainty with exactly how the pattern evolves into next week. In general, PoPs will likely become more diurnally influenced with time, as the remnant frontal boundary gradually weakens and becomes more diffuse each successive day after Monday. As such, blended PoPs may be too aggressive, especially Tuesday through Wednesday. Temperatures throughout the extended portion of the forecast will average slightly above normal, with lows mainly in the 60s, and highs in the upper 70s to around 80. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026 Widespread showery light rain, low cigs, and fog will cause prolonged MVFR and lower conditions through the period. Thunderstorms will be possible again on Friday with the arrival of a warm front. Winds will remain light through the period, generally under 10 kts and primarily out of the northeast initially veering to southeast with time. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEERTSON SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...JKL/JP AVIATION...GEERTSON/CMC ####018004529#### FXUS63 KUNR 211755 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1155 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool with showers likely through Friday. - Mild and seasonal Saturday. - Warmer conditions begin Sunday and last through next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 933 PM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Showers will continue to dissipate this evening across western SD. Not much change to the previous forecast, just a few adjustments to pops, mainly to raise pops with tomorrow's upper low and cold front and add some timing. Decent setup for widespread rain across most of the FA Thur-Thur night. Showers and storms will develop across the northeast WY and western SD, INVOF the stalled frontal boundary. Showers and storms will shift east across western SD Thur afternoon. A few stronger cells capable of gusty winds and small hail will be possible. As the low shifts east, rain will develop across northeast WY and shift east through Friday. Rain may change to snow across southern Campbell County Friday night and the higher elevations of the BH with a dusting to an inch possible (not expected to stick to roadways). There is the potential for localized rainfall amounts approaching an inch at areas that see storms tomorrow then rains overnight. System will move out Friday breezy with NW winds expected. Warming up and drying out after, although lingering cold pool aloft and LL moisture could support isolated showers over the Black Hills Sat afternoon. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 1238 PM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Upper level analysis has a long wave trough extending through the Rockies into the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a lee trough extends through central Wyoming and a cold front extends from a surface low in southern Saskatchewan into the Pacific Northwest. Radar has a few showers across southwestern and south-central South Dakota. For this afternoon and tonight, the lee trough will move into the forecast area and energy from the approaching trough will combine with increasing low-level moisture to support a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. NBM washed out these features, so decided to broad-brush 20 pops over the northern/central Black Hills. Showers will quickly dissipate after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. There will be a break in the precipitation overnight and into Thursday morning. Chances for showers will return by midday Thursday as the upper trough approaches the area. Diurnal heating combined with sufficient moisture will support convection initiating along the trough and the Black Hills. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into Friday as the main trof axis moves through. NBM probabilities for precip >= 0.25" has a wide swath of 60 to 80 percent over most of western SD, excluding far northwestern SD and the plains of northeastern Wyoming. Based off the current track of this system, highest QPF amounts are expected in the Black Hills, southwestern, and south-central South Dakota. The upper ridge slowly rebuilds over the weekend, allowing for a return of warm temperatures. Additionally, strong thunderstorms may be possible Tuesday and Wednesday next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday) Issued At 1136 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026 A cold front is moving through the region today, bringing thunderstorm chances and gusty northerly winds behind it. A disturbance moving over the area has combined with the cold front to produce showers over northeastern WY. Thunderstorms have already popped up over the northern Black Hills and these will continue to develop through the afternoon/early evening, then rain for the rest of the forecast period. Some snow will occur over the higher elevations of the Black Hills. The result will be MVFR/IFR conditions slowly moving from northeastern WY into the Black Hills later today. But tonight, widespread MVFR/IFR conditions will develop over western SD with local LIFR conditions over the Black Hills. Improving weather conditions likely after 12z as the rainy/cloudy weather moves eastward. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...JC DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...MLS AVIATION...GS ####018004024#### FXUS62 KFFC 211755 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 155 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Summer arrives with highs in the 80s and 90s through the beginning of next week. - Daily rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected from today through the holiday weekend and beyond for all of north and central Georgia. Training thunderstorms and heavy rain could create isolated flooding concerns; especially in the urban areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 439 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026 Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and low 90s again this afternoon, with SW winds at 5-10 mph. Increasing PWAT values are an indication that afternoon thunderstorms may be efficient rain producers. Areas that see training storms could see some isolated areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas. With the arrival of a stationary front, the best chance for pop up storms continues to be along and north of I-85. A few storms may have gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain but the threat of severe weather remains low. Storms will die out as the sun sets and temps will fall into the mid 60s again during the overnight hours, but high-res models indicate that isolated showers will continue into the overnight hours. Tomorrow looks to be similar, with showers and thunderstorms across northern GA along the stationary front across north Georgia. The threat for severe weather will continue be low with the primary concern being heavy rainfall. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 439 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026 The summer-like pattern continues through the full long term. Southwest flow hold moisture across the area with widespread PoPs peaking each afternoon. Models have trended to less chance of Rossby wave break overhead by weeks end and begun to pick up on potential blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS. This would take northwest flow to the east and build ridging overhead instead. Therefore the long term outlook can be summed up as thunderstorms before potential heat wave. No widespread severe is expected through the period, however a few storms each day may become strong with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and small hail. As we learned today, any thunderstorms that backbuild or move especially slowly may pose a localized flash flooding risk. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 138 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026 Showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly across North and West GA with MVFR to VFR CU developing across the state. Will see more coverage today than yesterday with a very similar result. Best timing for these storms to affect the TAF sites is between 20-24z Winds still mainly out of the SW in the 4-8kt range with winds going calm over night. Will see mainly SE winds in the 4-8kt range Friday. There is also a good possibility that we see showers counting through the night with ceilings lowering into the MVFR to IFR range through daybreak Friday. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Confidence high on all elements. 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 88 65 84 65 / 60 70 70 90 Atlanta 84 68 84 67 / 60 60 60 80 Blairsville 77 61 75 61 / 80 80 80 100 Cartersville 83 65 83 65 / 80 60 70 90 Columbus 90 68 88 68 / 20 20 50 60 Gainesville 83 66 79 66 / 70 80 70 90 Macon 90 68 89 67 / 30 40 50 80 Rome 81 64 81 64 / 80 60 70 90 Peachtree City 86 66 85 66 / 40 50 60 80 Vidalia 92 70 91 71 / 20 10 70 70 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....Lusk AVIATION...01 ####018011543#### FXUS65 KCYS 211756 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1156 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather Thursday afternoon across western Nebraska and far southeastern Wyoming. Isolated large hail and damaging winds are the primary concerns. - Widespread showers and storms come to an end early Friday morning before drier weather returns for the weekend. - Very warm temperatures return for the start of the work week, with some locations likely seeing the 90s once again. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 206 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026 Active weather days are anticipated both Thursday and Friday, with additional precipitation chances expected over the weekend. An upper- level trough is slowly digging into the Intermountain West this morning, with upper-level clouds starting to push into western portions of the CWA as of 07Z, per the GOES-19 Upper-Level Water Vapor Channel and Nighttime Microphysics. This upper-level trough will continue to push eastward throughout the day today, with some models hinting at a negatively-tilted trough by mid-day. Southwesterly flow aloft will dominate ahead of the incoming trough with strong cyclonic vorticity advection along the trough axis and multiple vorticity lobes ejecting out ahead into southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. The trough will narrow throughout the late- evening and overnight hours while it models across the CWA aiding in more concentrated synoptic ascent across much of the area. Southwesterly to westerly flow is progged at 700mb as the 700mb low spins, nearly stationary, across southern Saskatchewan. Warm air advection at 700mb will be present as the CWA remains within the warm sector of the surface low over far western South Dakota. This will further aid in additional ascent across the region, but especially along and east of the Laramie Range. At the surface, the surface low will struggle to organize over western South Dakota this morning as it interacts with the Black Hills, but will be closed and well defined by the evening. Despite this, strong southerly flow is expected, bringing ample warm air and modest moisture from the moisture rich regions of the southern CONUS. Afternoon dewpoint values across the Panhandle are anticipated to surge into the mid- to upper-40s this afternoon, creating a warm, moist environment from broad lift from the warm sector and supportive synoptic-scale lift. As a result, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop between 1pm and 3pm east of the Laramie Range, with showers and storms starting as early as 9am to 11am across Carbon County. Showers and storms west of the Laramie Range are not expected to be severe at this time, but there is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) from the Storm Prediction Center in an arch from Cheyenne north to northern Goshen County eastward through Southern Sioux County and Box Butte County then back south through Sidney. Primary severe threat at this time is very strong winds and possibly some isolated, large hail. Forecast soundings from the RAP suggest ample surface- based CAPE across most areas east of the Laramie Range, between 600 J/kg in southeast Wyoming to 1200 J/kg over western Nebraska. Low- level turning will be modest with good directional shear, but poor speed shear. Ample CAPE is available within the Hail Growth Zone, favoring the potential for large hail to develop. Additionally, bulk shear is decent, between about 35kt and 50kt, depending on location. The strongest shear will be along the I-80 Corridor from about Kimball east to Sidney, but decent shear remains from Cheyenne to the Nebraska state line. Given this environment, an isolated supercell or two will be possible, especially in western Nebraska, this afternoon with hail and wind being the primary threats. However, an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out due to low-level turning across this area. The cold front associated with the surface low is progged to push northwest to southeast across the CWA between about Noon and 6PM. Behind the front, temperatures will drop fairly quickly, with continued precipitation development along and behind the front. Therefore, Thursday night looks quite wet across the region with the possibility for some rumbles of thunder in the east after the potential severe weather in the afternoon. As the surface low spins, multiple bands of precipitation will develop due to lingering moisture and ascent, so precipitation will come in waves overnight. West of the Laramie Range, much cooler 700mb temperatures filter in behind the front, bottoming out around -5 to -3C. With cooler air, moisture, and continued ascent, locations west of the Laramie Range will likely see isolated to scattered snow showers overnight Thursday into the early morning hours Friday before diurnal heating returns. Significant accumulations are not anticipated at this time, likely between a trace to half an inch in the lower elevations. The mountains may see between 2 and 5 inches of snow overnight into the morning hours Friday. Temperatures Thursday night will tumble back to around 28 to 32F, just above frost advisory criteria. However, if the system comes in a bit cooler than currently anticipated, a short- fuse Frost Advisory may be needed for Carbon and Albany Counties overnight Thursday into Friday morning. There is low confidence in the potential for widespread and long duration frost conditions, therefore, no Frost Advisory was issued with this forecast update. Moving into Friday, the initial trough associated with the precipitation for Thursday will advect off to the northeast early Friday morning through the mid-morning hours as precipitation chances start to taper off. A brief period of zonal flow is expected to develop as another short-wave trough moves into the CWA from the west. This shortwave currently looks to remain largely neutral to positive in tilt, though ample 500mb vorticity advection will be present with multiple vorticity lobes ejecting out ahead of the second incoming trough. There will be a period of 700mb warm air advection in the afternoon hours as the 700mb low slowly moves northeasterly and before the second upper-level short-wave moves through. At the surface, northwesterly flow will continue through the morning and early afternoon hours, before switching southeasterly to easterly late evening into the overnight hours. With this timing, airmass recovery does not look good throughout the day Friday, despite the warm air advection at 700mb. Northwesterly flow will act to dry out the surface level as modest downslope develops to the southeast of the Laramie Range, preventing a good airmass recovery. Most models are not onboard with precipitation for Friday afternoon and evening, though a few suggests some isolated showers overnight Friday into the early morning hours Saturday. While precipitation cannot be completely ruled out Friday afternoon, it is becoming less likely as models continue to suggest poor airmass recovery behind the initial cold front. In addition to this, Friday high temperatures are expected to remain in the upper-40s to low-50s west of the Laramie Range and mid-50s to low-60s east of the Laramie Range. These temperatures could be enough to get an isolated shower to develop, but overall the setup looks weak. Temperatures Friday night will drop back to the low-30s to low-40s everywhere. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 206 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026 No major changes with this forecast update. Precipitation chances increased for Sunday evening and Monday afternoon. Please see previous discussion... The cool and unsettled weather pattern will come to a close this weekend as broad troughing is replaced by zonal flow on Saturday, followed by building ridging Sunday through Tuesday. Expect a pleasant day on Saturday with temperatures near seasonal averages. Typical diurnal cloud cover and winds can be expected with some mid- level cumulus and westerly breeziness developing in the afternoon. Isolated high based showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible, though the chance for appreciable rainfall is fairly low. A potent upper level ridge will build into the area Sunday into Monday, pushing temperatures above seasonal averages. 700-mb temperatures climb to around +8 to +12C, which will support highs around the climatological 90th percentile, but still several degrees shy of daily record highs. Chances for a few afternoon and evening high based showers and thunderstorms will continue Sunday and Monday, but again, rainfall potential will be limited. With westerly flow prevailing at the surface, dewpoints will remain stuck mostly in the 30s. Forecast soundings show decent moisture aloft, but fairly deep, dry, and well-mixed boundary layers. In addition, forcing for ascent looks limited. NBM PoPs are not really showing up for this period yet, but this is a fairly typical bias during warm and dry weather. Tuesday will be another warm day, but hints of a more active pattern to come will begin to show up. The strong upper level ridge will shift eastward, setting up over the Plains and Midwest. Meanwhile, a closed upper level low will dive into the Pacific Northwest and then stall for several days as it inches eastward. Falling surface pressure over Montana associated with modest lee cyclogenesis will increase southerly flow Monday into Tuesday, which should allow low level moisture to recover. Forcing from the approaching upper level low will help ignite showers and thunderstorms in the place of modest instability and ample moisture. This should setup Tuesday as the best day for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. The upper level low will be very slow to move eastward, which may keep scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as a possibility for much of next week. NBM PoPs of generally 20 to 50% Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons appear appropriate at this time, considering we are still 6-7 days away. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1146 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026 Showers are moving across Southeast Wyoming but should affect any of the terminals at this point. After 21z the thunderstorm potential increases for Southeast Wyoming and then expected around 00z for the Nebraska terminals. There is some severe potential of temporary wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail sized up to quarters. Although they dont look to affect any terminals there is a slight potential for some land spouts and/or a brief tornado near Kimball county, NE. The severe potential looks to end around 02z for all areas. With this big upper level trough moving through showers will probably continue intermittently throughout the night and ending around 14z for all areas. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AM LONG TERM...MN/AM AVIATION...MM ####018002315#### FXUS65 KBOI 211756 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1156 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and gradually warming through Memorial Day. - Much cooler with gusty winds and a chance of showers Tuesday and Wednesday, warming Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... Issued 310 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2026 No significant changes to previous forecast in the short term, i.e., continued day-to-day warming through Monday (Memorial Day) when southwesterly flow aloft fully replaces the current cool northwesterly flow aloft. This afternoon also looks windier than yesterday in the Snake Basin with gusts up to 35 mph. Skies will be mostly clear, with only scattered high clouds. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued 310 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2026 A strong Pacific cold front will pass through our CWA Tuesday bringing gusty winds, rapid cooling, and a chance of showers but only light amounts of rain, generally .10 inch or less. The cold front looks slightly weaker than it did yesterday, with the supporting upper low still passing right over our CWA but not as deep as before. Models agreement has also decreased slightly and may partially account for the slight average weakening. In any case, Tuesday and Wednesday should be a full 20 degrees cooler than Monday, with a warming trend starting again Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 1153 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2026 VFR, scattered high level clouds possible this evening. Surface winds: NW wind 10-15 kt, gusts to 25 kt, variable 5-10 kt tonight. Winds aloft at 10kft: N 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR with mostly clear skies. Surface winds: NW 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt through the afternoon, becoming S-SE up to 10 kt tonight. Weekend Outlook...VFR. Mostly clear. 5-15 kt SW-NW winds each afternoon, lighter and more variable each morning. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JM SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....LC ####018003766#### FXUS62 KTBW 211756 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 156 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures are expected through the week. - Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the afternoon into the evening hours. - Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026 The forecast remains unchanged for the next several days as surface high pressure continues to ridge west into the southeast U.S. with the low level east to southeast flow across the region. Upper level ridging does setup over the area keeping the rather hot temperatures in place and this combined with enough moisture, precipitable water values between 1.4 and 1.7 inches, will lead to scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. The flow will remain light enough through Sunday, sea breeze regime 6, to allow the west coast sea breeze to move inland with highest rain chances around and just east of the I-75 corridor. Early next week the eat to southeast flow will increase, sea breeze regime 7, and this will favor coastal areas for the highest rain chances. Overall it looks like the early summerlike pattern will continue for the next several days with some much needed rainfall across the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026 MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible later this afternoon and evening in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through Friday morning. The east to southeast winds at 6 to 10 knots early this afternoon are expected to shift to westerly at TPA, PIE, and SRQ as the bay/sea breezes develop and move inland. The sea breeze could also reach the southwest Florida TAF sites of PGD, FMY, and RSW later this afternoon, but convection could overwhelm this and cause winds to be rather variable. The overall east to southeast flow will return later this evening at 3 to 6 knots, then increase to 6 to 10 knots again Friday morning. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026 The east to southeast flow will continue through the weekend then increase some early next week. Speeds could reach cautionary levels during the nighttime hours early next week, otherwise they are are expected to remain less than 15 knots except in the vicinity of any showers and thunderstorms that could move offshore during the late afternoon and evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026 Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the next several days with sustained winds less than 15 mph. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day mainly during the afternoon and evening hours which could cause gusty and erratic winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 92 78 92 / 30 20 20 40 FMY 74 93 76 93 / 40 40 20 60 GIF 74 93 75 93 / 30 20 10 40 SRQ 75 92 76 92 / 20 20 20 30 BKV 73 94 74 94 / 20 30 30 40 SPG 77 93 78 94 / 20 20 20 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Close ####018005685#### FXUS63 KILX 211758 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1258 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A seasonably cool day today with temperatures peaking near 70 degrees will give way to a warming trend this weekend, with highs rising into the upper 70s. - High uncertainty surrounds a storm system Friday. While a drier outcome is expected for most of central Illinois with under a quarter-inch of rain, a soaking rainfall remains possible if the storm tracks further north. - Summer-like heat and humidity returns by the middle of next week as temperatures climb into the mid to upper 80s. Any rain next week could focus primarily south of Interstate 72. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026 A cooler and drier pattern will persist through today as surface high pressure lingers over the Great Lakes region. High temperatures may struggle to reach 70 degrees. Some forecast models indicate that a lake breeze may penetrate as far inland as the I-74 corridor again this evening, likely resulting in another chilly late spring night with lows in the 50s. A series of progressive shortwave impulses is modeled to eject from the southern Plains Friday morning ahead of a broader, deep-layer trough axis pivoting across the Central Plains. This synoptic forcing will lift a surface low-pressure system into the lower Ohio River Valley by midday Friday. Model guidance displays considerable spread regarding the exact track of this low, which yields high uncertainty for local QPF. Recent iterations of the global deterministic suites (GFS/ECMWF) have consistently shifted the track of the surface low further southeast. This tracks the deeper moisture axis away from our CWA, substantially lowering rain coverage and QPF across central Illinois. The Canadian model (CMC) continues to buck the consensus, remaining a western outlier by pulling the surface low directly through central Illinois and bringing widespread soaking rains. High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) members reflect a similar dichotomy. The HRRR and NAMNest restrict meaningful rain coverage to the Ohio River Valley, keeping central Illinois less wet. Conversely, the NSSL WRF, ARW, and FV3 depict a much further north expansion of the rain shield into our area. Leaning heavily on the broader global deterministic and ensemble trends, a drier outcome appears most probable for the bulk of the ILX forecast area. The HREF Probability Matched Mean (PMM) positions the heavy rainfall axis (0.50 to 1.50 inches) strictly along and south of the Ohio River. Much of central Illinois is highlighted to receive less than 0.10 inches. Furthermore, mid-level water vapor and forecast RH plots reveal a persistent pocket of dry air centered near 700 mb that could severely limit column saturation. Barring any unexpected mesoscale fgen (frontogenetical) banding on the northwest flank of the system, areas north of Interstate 70 will likely struggle to see more than 0.25 inches of total rainfall. Weekend conditions will be influenced by an upper trough axis moving through the Midwest, which might spark some scattered showers. However, mid-level RH profiles look notably drier following Fridays surface low passage, leading to much lower QPF and PoPs for Saturday and Sunday. The primary impact of this setup will be a warming trend, with afternoon highs climbing into the upper 70s throughout the weekend. Otherwise, with a diffuse surface boundary lingering over the region, its not difficult to hallucinate about landspout activity. Looking ahead to next week, deterministic global models indicate a Rex block forming over the Plains. The movement of the related upper-level low will be the deciding factor for precipitation and thunderstorm chances through the early part of the week. As the lower portion of the block moves up the Mississippi Valley and high pressure stays anchored over the Corn Belt, current data suggests locations south of I-72 have the highest probability of rain. While the exact progression of this blocking pattern remains somewhat uncertain, models show strong consensus on a return to heat, with temperatures expected to reach the mid-to- upper 80s by mid-week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026 VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail next 24 hours (thru 18Z/1 pm Fri) across the central IL airports. Though MVFR ceilings 2.5-3k ft may get near CMI and DEC tonight into Friday morning, more widespread MVFR clouds will be in southeast IL from MTO southeast. Broken to overcast ceilings 4-6k ft at DEC and CMI to lift NNW toward I-55 during mid/late afternoon and to PIA by sunset. PIA currently has 8-10k ft broken ceilings with another area of clouds. Weak low pressure to eject ne from central Texas into central AR by 12Z/Fri and western tip of KY by 00Z/Sat with a surface trof arching into far se IL and central IN by sunset Fri. Brunt of moisture stays south/se of central IL thru 18Z/Fri with shower chances Fri afternoon especially at DEC and CMI. ENE winds 12-17 kts with gusts 20-27 kts this afternoon to weaken to around 10 kts by sunset range from 10-14 kts after 14Z/Fri with gusts to around 20 kts && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...07 ####018005080#### FXUS66 KPQR 211759 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1059 AM PDT Thu May 21 2026 ...Updated aviation discussion... .SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm weather is expected across the region through the weekend with high pressure over the NE Pacific spreading east over the Pacific NW. Rain and cooler temperatures return to the area late Sunday into early next week, which could impact any outdoor Memorial Day plans. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday...The upper level ridge that has been persistent over the NE Pacific will slide across the Pacific NW today as shortwave trough over the Gulf of Alaska sends a weak impulse toward the region. 850 mb temps rise to around 12-13C this afternoon while a weak surface thermal trough pushing into the Willamette Valley this morning shifts over the Cascades. With drier, offshore flow in the foothills, there are lower chances for morning stratus developing. This should allow mostly sunny skies to help warm surface temperatures into at least the lower 80s for inland areas today, which is around 10-15 degrees above normal for today. Record high temps are generally in the upper 80s to mid-90s through the Memorial Day Weekend, so we are not expecting any record high temps to be broken at this time. Conditions are expected to remain dry through the end of the week and into the weekend as high pressure continues across the region. The upper level ridge re-amplifies over the NE Pacific tonight and sags back over the PacNW region on Friday. Broad upper level ridging on Friday becomes more zonal aloft Saturday into Sunday. Expect a slight cooling trend in temperatures through the weekend, but still likely to remain above seasonable averages. Coastal locations will experience a brief warmup today into the 60s to lower 70s before onshore flow brings typical temperatures there. There remains good agreement that Sunday will remain mainly dry and warm, though could begin to see increasing cloud cover ahead of an approaching weather system. About 90% of ensemble members indicate a frontal system will push into the PacNW sometime late Sunday night into Monday, with chances of rain increasing for Monday, followed by showers into Tuesday. Some uncertainty still remains in the general timing of rain as well as rain totals, but latest consensus is that rain will hold off until at least late Sunday night along the far N OR and SW WA coast, then spread southeast Monday morning. Temperatures will also drop substantially Monday and Tuesday with high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s for the interior lowlands. Conditions are likely to rebound back to seasonable norms by the middle of next week, though some uncertainty remains due to low chances of precipitation. DH/03 && .AVIATION...High pressure over the area will maintain VFR conditions with clear skies for Willamette Valley terminals through the entire TAF period. Along the coast, marine stratus has burned off and will briefly maintain VFR conditions with clear skies through this evening. Tonight, marine stratus re-develops along the coast and will lead to a 40-60% chance for IFR/MVFR CIGs or lower at any given hour for KAST/KONP between 09-17z Fri. Northerly to northwesterly winds today with gusts up to 20-25 kt along the coast and central/southern Willamette Valley. Elsewhere, winds generally under 10 kt. Winds weaken overnight as pressure gradients ease. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with clear skies through the TAF period. Northwesterly winds 5-10 kt. No impacts expected. -10 && .MARINE...High pressure offshore will maintain breezy northerly winds through the end of the week. The strongest winds are expected during the afternoon and evening periods as the surface thermal trough strengthens over the northern CA/southern OR coast. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the waters south of Cape Falcon through tonight for northerly wind gusts up to 25 kt. Will note that there may be a brief lull in the winds between 5-11 AM Thursday for the inner water and northern outer water zones before increasing again this afternoon. Gusty northerlies are again likely south of Cape Falcon on Friday. Seas 6 to 9 feet are expected across all waters through this weekend. The summer- like pattern is expected to break down Sunday night as a front approaches the waters and returns southwesterly winds by Monday. -10/DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to noon PDT today for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ252-253- 271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland